Most players experience a scoring drop as they transition from college hockey to pro. We look at the average changes from the NCAA and USports to the PHF last season, in order to predict who will top rookie scoring next season.
Most players experience a scoring drop as they transition from college hockey to pro. We look at the average changes from the NCAA and USports to the PHF last season, in order to predict who will top rookie scoring next season.
Predicting the success of an NCAA or USports prospect as they transition to the professional level is difficult at any level. Players often find new chemistry, coaching systems and styles that help or hinder, and often take on new roles or positions.
Looking at the 22 NCAA players and five Usports players who moved directly from college hockey to professional women's hockey last season in the PHF, players overwhelmingly experienced a drop in their points per game.
Players coming from the NCAA experienced an average points per game drop of -0.365, while players coming from USports experienced a larger drop, falling by -0.616 points per game. Ultimately however, NCAA and USports players produced at a much closer point per game rate in the PHF, scoring 0.396 and 0.350 points per game respectively.
Last season's rookie crop saw only Elizabeth Giguere score more than a point per game in the PHF (1.22) after scoring 1.55 points per game with the University of Minnesota-Duluth in the NCAA.
The seven other players from college hockey who scored more than a point per game - Caitrin Lonegran, Liz Schepers, Jade Downie-Landry, Anna Klein, Becca Gilmore, Daryl Watts, and Brittyn Fleming also saw their points per game totals fall below 1.00.
Only three players who spent the entire season in the PHF experience point per game increases from their NCAA graduating year. Toronto Six forward Lexi Templeman saw the biggest increase of +0.25, followed by Buffalo Beauts defender Antonia Matzka (+0.21) and Caitrin Lonegran (+0.13), who recently signed with the Boston Pride after her rookie season with the Connecticut Whale.
Using these averages, we could begin to predict the totals PHF rookies for the 2023-2024 season could put up.
For example, Alina Müller is the top NCAA scorer joining the PHF next season after the Northeastern University star signed with the Boston Pride. At the NCAA level, Müller recorded 60 points in 38 games last season, good for 1.58 points per game. If Müller experienced the average drop from NCAA to PHF players from last season incurred, she would score at a 1.215 points per game rate, or roughly 29 points in a 24 game season.
Similarly, Audrey-Anne Veillette was second in USports scoring notching 35 points in 22 games last season or 1.59 points per game. If her scoring dropped by the USports average of -0.616 Veillette would score at a 0.974 points per game rate in the PHF with the Montreal Force this season. That would equate to roughly 23 points in a 24 game season.
While the season-to-season change in the PHF talent level will undoubtedly impact these totals, the average points per game change can give us a look at the potential impact these incoming stars will have immediately.