Expect the unexpected. 

For PWHL fans, it's a mantra that will serve them well heading into the PWHL's first ever expansion process. Fans have spoken out across the league upset at the depth of cuts expected to impact the core of each roster in the league. 

While fans are expecting the worst, it's impossible to predict how the league's expansion process will play out, and if all teams will be equally impacted by expansion. 

How could teams be impacted disproportionately?

Unlike NHL expansion, or expansion from other leagues, many of the highest paid players in the PWHL will be available for selection. Similarly, there will be an opportunity for the two expansion teams to sign players ahead of the expansion draft itself.

There are many scenarios where the flexibility gifted to the two expansion teams could result in disproportionate success not only when comparing how each expansion team fares in the process, but more specifically, how the existing six teams will be impacted.

The biggest factor to consider here is what players Seattle and Vancouver decide to target first. For example, if one of the expansion teams targets multiple players from a single club in the exclusive signing window, or early in the draft, it could significantly alter the calibre of players the other expansion team is able to select in the draft from that team, and others. The other factor here is if a team goes into the exclusive signing window and inks 4-5 highly paid players, they will need to shift to lower paid players sooner in the expansion draft which could save veteran stars from some teams. Early signings by one expansion team could also activate the additional protection for an existing team before the second expansion team has been able to make a pick from that team.

There is no rule forcing Vancouver and Seattle to select two players from each of the six teams. It means, for example, Vancouver could sign four Toronto players leaving none for Seattle, or Seattle could take three from Boston and Vancouver only one. The scenarios will change with every signing in the exclusive window, and every pick in the draft.

What fans need to hope for is that any signings made in the initial window are not from their team, as it will increase the likelihood of top players of their own going unselected due to salary restrictions. At the same time, there are teams in the PWHL who would desperately like to drop a large contract or two in order to re-sign more players, and push for additions via free agency. And teams with less depth are almost certain to lose their best available even if money is a limiting factor.

What surprises might we see?

If you think a PWHL team is going to protect only their initial signings, or big names, think again. Teams are considering a number of factors. On ice performance is certainly one, but how each player impacts their locker room and community are others. There's also the consideration of age, salary, and contract term. In Ottawa, the decision to lock in Ronja Savolainen is all of the above, as she's one of the few players in the league signed for two more seasons, and she's not breaking their bank.

The potential exposure of veteran players like Brianne Jenner, Hilary Knight, Jocelyne Larocque, Alex Carpenter, or Blayre Turnbull is not about teams not wanting to keep their captains and leaders, it's a calculated risk. Teams know that careers will end at one point or another. Teams also know that there's a point in the expansion process that Seattle and Vancouver will not be able to pick any more three-year contracts from the league's inaugural season, because it's nearly impossible to carry more than 6-7 of these deals financially. The benefit to the expansion teams is they can do this math ahead of time rather than wait and negotiate later.

The lack of public transparency in the league for salaries was probably done as much from the players' side to protect the small group taking a lions share of the salary, as it was to protect the league from critique over how many players are making league minimum or slightly above. Fans however, can't see this. They can't see the significant raises some young players signed into the second and third years of their deals that might turn off an expansion team. They can't see how the math will 

Finding a balance in team salary has proven advantageous already in the PWHL. For example, the Minnesota Frost, who are the back-to-back reigning Walter Cup champions, were perhaps the most balanced roster in terms of avoiding large salaries, and were one of the only teams in the league without a player making $100,000 this season. 

Don't expect the expansion teams to pick only the stars

With everything in mind, it's equally likely that a PWHL expansion team takes the mentality of targeting primarily younger players, as veterans. It's also as likely those teams look at players like Brooke McQuigge or Shay Maloney, as it is they pick the big names from each team. Winning in the PWHL is as much about depth and the quality of role players a team has as it is a stacked top line and superstars. It's why the third and fourth seeds in the PWHL playoffs have been more successful during the first two years of the league's history than the first and second place teams.

Everything could change again in six months

There's no ability to plan long term in the PWHL. It's an issue the league will have to address at some point before it hurts fan bases and the level of competition in general. Right now however, it doesn't matter if you signed your first round pick from 2024 to a three year contract, you could lose them in this process. Similarly, the inaugural players signed to be the cornerstone of each team could be gone. Right now, every team in the PWHL is operating on the belief that their roster is only secure for one season at a time. It's highly plausible the PWHL could decide to expand again after this season, and the eight teams could all be facing cuts to their rosters one year from now. This league is going to continue to morph, and the best roster stability is flexibility, and the ability to morph and adapt to whatever is thrown your way. If anything, this offseason will prompt teams to focus more on three balanced lines compared to a top line being asked to carry a disproportionate load.