The six PWHL original teams were to submit their protection list on Tuesday. 

On the Montreal Victoire side, the announcement of the three protected players came as no surprise. Danièle Sauvageau decided to protect her captain Marie-Philip Poulin, forward Laura Stacey, and goaltender Ann-Renée Desbiens.

These are the three players that the media, fans, and several players within the team were expecting. However, two questions arise. Was it the right decision? Did Sauvageau really have other options? Montreal was the only team not to protect a defence player. Yet, it is not for a lack of talent on the Montreal blue line.

Erin Ambrose was chosen defender of the year last season and is a veteran of Team Canada. Cayla Barnes is the team’s first-round pick of the team in 2024, while Anna Wilgren has been one of the best defenders in the league regarding blocked shots. 

Both Barnes and Wilgren are part of Team USA and are expected to be included in the all-rookie team when it is revealed at the end of the month.

Unfortunately, there is a scenario in which the Victoire could lose its three best defence players. 

Let's first recall the rules.

The two expansion teams will have from June 4 to 8 to exclusively sign players, even those who have a contract. They can therefore be offered more money. The following day will be the expansion draft itself. As soon as a team loses two players, at any point in the process, it can protect a fourth. And a team cannot lose more than four players. 

Gardiner and Barnes could leave. It would be surprising if Vancouver or Seattle succeeded in convincing Ambrose to leave Montreal. She is already earning at least $80,000 a year, and her emotional state during the team's end-of-season media availability left no doubt about her intentions. Now, Vancouver could convince Jennifer Gardiner, a native of British Columbia, to reopen her contract of about $44,000 a year for next season and offer her nearly double that amount for the next three seasons.

Seattle might want to do the same with West Coast native, Cayla Barnes. Barnes is reported to earn around $52,000 next season and Seattle could offer her much more. If that’s the case, Montreal would then have to protect a fourth player and that player could be Erin Ambrose. This would mean that the team would lose Anna Wilgren in the draft, as well as one forward among Abby Boreen, Kristin O’Neil, and Lina Ljungblom.

Goodbye Big Three? 

But if Vancouver can’t convince Gardiner and only Barnes leaves the team during the exclusivity window, that’s when Montreal risks losing its three defenders. 

Because even if Ambrose doesn’t want to leave on her own accord, if she is drafted, the 31-year-old athlete won’t have a choice. So, if Barnes signs, Ambrose gets drafted, Montreal can then keep another player. In this scenario, the team would most probably keep Gardiner. Montreal could also keep Wilgren, but Gardiner is the better player of the two, it's hard to overlook that. And we return to the same conclusion: Wilgren and one forward will be the other two players chosen by Vancouver and Seattle. 

This scenario would be disastrous for Montreal. Its defensive core would look like this: Amanda Boulier, Mariah Keopple, Kati Tabin, Dominika Laskova, Kelly-Ann Nadeau, and of this group, only Boulier has a contract for next season.

Forced to keep Poulin and Stacey?

Did the Victoire really have a choice to proceed like this?

Ann-Renée Desbiens is the best goaltender in the world. She is a Quebecer and the number one goaltender for Team Canada. She wasn't going anywhere.

Marie-Philip Poulin is the best player in the world. She is a Quebecer and one of the main reasons for the team's success at the box office. She wasn't going anywhere. Sauvageau already confirmed this at the end-of-season media availability.

Then there's Laura Stacey. Montreal’s heart and soul and a talented player loved by the fans. But also, Poulin's real-life partner. And whether we like it or not, this duo on and off the ice was not going to be separated.

Under other circumstances, yes. If Stacey and Poulin are not a couple, there’s a strong possibility that Montreal protects Ambrose or Barnes instead of Stacey. Not because Stacey isn't worth it. On the contrary. But because strategically, it avoids the scenario of losing your two or three best defenders. Also, Montreal could have taken the risk that Stacey's salary scares the two expansion teams, meaning the team could protect her later.

Considering the Salaries

Salaries are also an important factor to consider. Vancouver and Seattle will need to average $58,350 per player or, if you prefer, a total payroll of $1,342,050 for 23 contracts.

In 2024, the six original teams were required to sign six players at a minimum of $80,000 (2 or 3 of these players are earning at least $100,000), a maximum of nine players at a minimum salary of $35,000, and the other eight contracts at a salary ranging from $35,000 to $80,000. Last year’s first-round draft picks were awarded $50,000, second-round picks $42,500, and third-round picks $40,000 per season. All of this comes with annual increases of 3%.

At the moment, 22 players who have signed for at least $80,000 are available. This means that a maximum of 12 of these 22 players could align with Vancouver and Seattle. Fewer than 12 if offers are made to players like Cayla Barnes for $80,000 and more. So even if none of these 22 players were not the fourth protected player by their team, a player could not be drafted because of her salary. 

The 18 protected players

In total, there are nine forwards, six defenders, and three goalies who have been protected.

Forwards:

Emily Clark, Kendall Coyne-Schofield, Taylor Heise, Alina Müller, Blayne Turnbull, Daryl Watts, Sarah Fillier, Marie-Philip Poulin, Laura Stacey.

Defenders: 

Renata Fast, Megan Keller, Ella Shelton, Micah Zandee-Hart, Lee Sticklein, Ronja Savolainen.

Goalies: 

Aerin Frankel, Gwyneth Philips, Ann-Renée Desbiens.

My mock draft 

I'm going with the theory that players who already have a more lucrative contract will not be signed during the exclusivity window, but rather drafted. Also, I believe that no one likes to move, that players have become attached to their community and their team, and that expansion teams cannot start paying some players too much. Even though Vancouver and Seattle are two markets where the cost of living is high but similar, I believe that Seattle will have more difficulty attracting players during the exclusivity window, especially Canadians. Why would a Canadian accept to be paid $80,000 in US currency by an American team when she could earn the same salary in Canada, with a 37% increase courtesy of the exchange rate?

I have set a maximum of six players earning a minimum salary of $80,000, as is the case for the six original teams. I take it for granted that if a player is signed during the exclusivity window, it will be for an equivalent salary. 

Another factor is what Danièle Sauvageau said a few weeks ago: “It's a short-term league.” You want to win right away. Because if two other teams make it next year and the league decides again to protect only three players per team, Vancouver and Seattle will be in the same position as the six originals are this year. So, age is not that important.

There are, however, some unknowns. I don’t believe that the expansion teams will offer contracts to free agents, but if that were the case, it would change the game. We don’t also know if any back-room deals between general managers will take place or if agents will pressure the teams, letting them know that their client does not want to play in Vancouver or Seattle. And finally, what about the health status of Emerance Maschmeyer? Not being sure, I did not include her in my simulation.

Players under contract (exclusivity window) 

SEA Cayla Barnes - D - MTL 

VAN Corrine Schroeder - G - NY 

VAN Jennifer Gardiner - A - MTL 

VAN Claire Thompson - D - MINN 

(MTL protects Erin Ambrose) 

Since Vancouver has signed more players, Seattle would have the first pick. I don't know if this will be the rule, but it would make sense.

Draft

1-SEA Hilary Knight - A - BOS

2-VAN Sarah Nurse - A - TOR

3-SEA Alex Carpenter - A - NY

(NY protects Jessie Eldridge)

4-VAN Sophie Jaques - D - MINN

(MINN protects Britta Curl) 

5-SEA Kelly Pannek - A - MINN

6-VAN Brianne Jenner - A - OTT

7-SEA Savannah Harmon - D - TOR

(TOR protects Julia Gosling)

8-VAN Danielle Serdachny - A - OTT

(OTT protects Aneta Tejralova) 

9-SEA Anna Wilgren - D - MTL

10–VAN Maja Nylén Persson - D - NY

11-SEA Kristen Campbell - G - TOR

12-VAN Brooke McQuigge - A - MINN

(MINN can’t lose another player)

13-SEA - Hannah Bilka - A - BOS

(BOS protects Hannah Brandt)

14-VAN Abby Boreen - A - MTL

(MTL can’t lose another player)

15-SEA Shay Maloney - A- BOS

16-VAN Emily Brown - D - BOS 

(BOS can’t lose another player)

17-SEA Mannon McMahon - A - OTT

18-VAN Izzy Daniel - A - TOR

(TOR can’t lose another player)

19-SEA Allyson Simpson - D - NY

(NY can’t lose another player)

20-SEA Stephanie Markowski - D - OTT

(OTT can’t lose another player)

Vancouver

Gardiner - Nurse - Jenner

Serdachny - McQuigge - Boreen 

Daniel 

Thompson - Jaques

Nylen Persson - Brown 

Schroeder

Seattle 

Knight - Carpenter - Pannek

Bilka - Maloney - McMahon 

Barnes - Harmon

Wilgren- Simpson

Markowski 

Campbell 

Vancouver would have the best defence, Seattle would have a slight advantage in offence (an average of 15 points per player last season compared to 13), and in front of the net, it’s a tie. Both teams would be very competitive.

Too much is like not enough

Here is my last observation regarding this draft.

The rookie of the year, the defender of the year, and the goaltender of the year in 2024 are available. For 2025, there are players available among those nominated for the awards given to the best defender, forward, rookie, and most valuable player. And five of the six first-round picks from 2024, as well as five of the six second-round picks from the same year are available.

Expansion teams should be competitive in their first year, but the PWHL is pushing things a bit too far. Not only to the detriment of the teams, but mainly to the detriment of their fans. Sometimes, too much is like not enough.