The Toronto Sceptres host the Minnesota Frost for the first two games of their semi-final series. Since this is a rematch of last year’s first round series, you might look at some factors that tipped that matchup in favor of the Frost (depth scoring, goaltending) as what to watch for this year. However, the teams this season have very different strengths and weaknesses, and with the benefit of hindsight, this could be a highly competitive and very tightly contested five game series.
First, we’ll rule out ’special teams’ and ‘goaltending’ as keys to winning the series, since those are automatically the biggest factors. If either side doesn’t have at least strong penalty killing and a goalie who makes the expected saves, it’s over. But you can expect those to be covered, and not necessarily what tip the scales for Minnesota or Toronto.
Instead, these are three things to watch closely:
Which goalie does Minnesota use (or do they use both)?
Last year, the series started with Nicole Hensley in goal for Minnesota, since she was their better regular season netminder. However, after losing the first game in Toronto, Ken Klee turned to Maddie Rooney, who immediately took charge and held the strong Toronto offense off the board until 18:35 of the third period in game two.
When the series went to Minnesota, Rooney stayed between the pipes, and continued her excellent play as the team won 2-0 and then 1-0 in double overtime. Her save percentage in the series was .979.
This season, Rooney has been the better goalie for the Frost overall, but Hensley has taken over in the last third of the season (ironically, her reboot came in a 2-1 overtime win in Toronto). This decision is huge for the start of the series. Is Hensley the choice, or does Rooney still have Toronto’s number?
Will Toronto’s power play get back to its former strength?
When the Sceptres turned around their season in late January/February, the key for the team was their red-hot power play, which at one point was scoring at 50%. Daryl Watts, Jesse Compher, Hannah Miller, and Renata Fast drove the unit and expressed to coach Troy Ryan at one point that they expected to score whenever they got an opportunity. The confidence and swagger they showed during those games was a real problem for other teams, and helped their five-on-five play since other teams were afraid to take penalties against them.
However, since March 9 it has gone 1/26, or 4%. This is partly due to changing personnel, with returns from injuries, and some different combinations of players, but the Sceptres have not been able to regain their form on the PP. Without it, their offense sputters, and in the playoffs, every goal is huge, and a strike on the player advantage can turn around an entire game. The team has been spending extra time on it, and will need the power play to find at least a goal or two in the series in order for Toronto to win.
Which team can wear down the other’s defense?
With offense at a premium in the playoffs, coaches will be instructing their forwards to forecheck hard, get in on the other team’s defenders, and force them into mistakes. Both teams have very experienced defenders (Toronto’s Renata Fast and Savannah Harmon, Minnesota’s Lee Stecklein and Claire Thompson) who have faced pressure on the international stage, but in a five-game series, this heavy pressure can start to crack even the most poised blueliners.
If players like Emma Maltais, Hayley Scamurra, Brooke McQuigge, and Denisa Krizova can impose their physical will on the opponent’s defense and start causing them to think twice when turning to retrieve pucks, it could open up opportunities for the teams’ third lines to cash in on timely goals. And on other shifts, if those defenders are worn out from the punishment, the top lines with players like Sarah Nurse, Daryl Watts, Michela Cava, and Taylor Heise could be the beneficiaries.
Keep an eye on these parts of the game as the Frost-Sceptres series gets underway. It’s sure to be a fierce battle, and early on, some of the signs could indicate who ultimately emerges as the winner.