The New York Rangers could run away with the league lead, but the Presidents' Trophy race is still close right now. Jason Chen ranks the NHL's 32 teams.
For the second straight week, the Rangers are at the top of the NHL power rankings.
Barring an extended losing streak, it’s likely they will remain there and claim the Presidents’ Trophy. According to tankathon.com, the Rangers have the seventh-easiest schedule for the rest of the season and will not face any team ranked higher than 16th in points percentage.
But it is crowded at the top. The word on everyone’s lips these days is “parity,” with six teams eclipsing the 100-point mark this season and sitting within four points of each other at the top of the standings. Six more teams are in the 90s, and none of the division winners have been decided yet.
There’s been a slight adjustment from last week’s top five, with the Hurricanes and Stars climbing up a few spots while the Avalanche, Canucks, Panthers and Predators tumble down a few spots.
A few years ago, a study was done to determine whether or not the outcome of the last few games of the season affected a team’s playoff performance. In other words, does late-season momentum really matter? It turns out it doesn’t.
However, as the study points out, the performance in the second half of the season is more predictive. Since Jan. 12 – which the NHL considers the halfway mark of the season – there are four teams tied with 50 points earned: the Hurricanes (24-8-2), Rangers (24-9-2), Oilers (23-8-4) and Stars (23-8-4). They are ranked second, first, seventh and third, respectively, in this week’s power rankings.
(All fancy stats are 5-on-5 and courtesy naturalstattrick.com. CF% stands for Corsi-for percentage and xGF% represents expected goals-for percentage.)
1. New York Rangers (50-21-4, +48 goal differential. CF% league rank: 20, xGF% league rank: 24)
There have been a few close calls, but the Rangers retain the top spot as the first team to have 50 wins. It’s not hard to envision the Rangers cruise to the Presidents’ Trophy; of their seven remaining games, only one of them is against a team (Flyers) currently in playoff position.
2. Carolina Hurricanes (47-21-7, +56. CF%: 1, xGF%: 2)
With back-to-back shutout wins from Pyotr Kochetkov and Frederik Andersen, they’ve got to be one of the best tandems in the NHL right now. Through 11 games, Jake Guentzel has two goals and 16 points for the Hurricanes, but the best stat of them all is this: zero goals against in over 150 minutes of play at 5-on-5.
3. Dallas Stars (47-19-9, +56. CF%: 5, xGF%: 3)
Perhaps it’s Jake Oettinger’s uneven play, but sometimes the Stars don’t feel or look like a contender, with some occasional dud games. They’re still an excellent team on a seven-game winning streak, however, so it warrants a climb up the power rankings.
4. Colorado Avalanche (47-22-6, +55. CF%: 6, xGF%: 8)
The Avalanche have lost three of their last four games, but one was a close shootout against the Rangers. The bigger worry going into the playoffs is the play of Alexandar Georgiev, who was pulled following a poor performance and an ill-advised unsportsmanlike minor against the Preds. Can he put it together at the right time?
5. Boston Bruins (44-17-15, +44. CF%: 24, xGF%: 17)
They play two of their next three games against the Hurricanes with the Panthers sandwiched in between, and that will be the biggest litmus test of the season before the playoffs begin. David Pastrnak has scored 40 more points than his closest teammate, and in a season where the Hart Trophy race has never been tighter, Pastrnak doesn’t get talked about enough.
6. Vancouver Canucks (46-21-8, +55. CF%: 12, xGF%: 10)
It has not been a good stretch for the Canucks, and Rick Tocchet knows it. They’ve lost three of their last four, narrowly beating the Ducks, and Thatcher Demko may not return until next week. Other than two games against the Coyotes, which have been a tough out lately, the Canucks have a tough schedule the rest of the way.
7. Edmonton Oilers (45-23-5, +55. CF%: 3, xGF%: 1)
At the time of Jay Woodcroft’s firing, they were 3-9-1 and second-last in the West. Now, they’re five points away from tying the Canucks for the Pacific Division lead with two games in hand. Connor McDavid is also three assists away from 100, which would make him only the fourth player to do so after Bobby Orr, Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux.
8. Toronto Maple Leafs (43-22-9, +44. CF%: 17, xGF%: 13)
The Leafs have quietly put together a pretty strong stretch of play, going 7-3-1 in their last 11 and doing so without Mitch Marner or having much clarity on who their No. 1 goalie should be. Auston Matthews may not score 70 goals this season, but at least we now know it’s very possible.
9. Tampa Bay Lightning (41-26-7, +18. CF%: 15, xGF%: 21)
They lost only twice in regulation in March, including wins against the Rangers, Panthers and Knights. The scary thing is we still haven’t really seen peak Andrei Vasilevskiy, and he’s well on his way to his seventh straight 30-win season despite missing most of the first two months.
10. Florida Panthers (47-24-5, +53. CF%: 2, xGF%: 5)
This is a bad time for the Panthers to slump. After looking like they would lock up the Presidents’ Trophy, the Panthers are 4-8-1 after March 7, the fifth-worst points percentage in the NHL.
11. Nashville Predators (43-28-4, +16. CF%: 11, xGF%: 6)
Their 16-0-2 run ended emphatically with a three-game losing streak where they’ve been outscored 18-8. Though they’ve looked great during their run, they relied on their few good players and some good shooting luck. The Preds are likely the most desirable opponent in the first round in the West.
12. Vegas Golden Knights (42-25-8, +25. CF%: 22, xGF%: 14)
It’s been a great run for the Knights and we might see Tomas Hertl in the lineup soon, adding even more star power to their considerable and talented roster. There have been close calls, but their goaltending has been good, and they’re 8-2-1 since their four-game losing streak.
13. Winnipeg Jets (45-24-6, +41. CF%: 8, xGF%: 11)
A win against the Kings stopped the bleeding, but that six-game losing streak looked more like a bloodbath. The Jets were outscored 24-10, and instead of locking up the Central and facing a wild-card team, they’re more likely to face the Avs in the first round instead.
14. Los Angeles Kings (38-25-11, +32. CF%: 4, xGF%: 4)
A four-game winning streak had everyone signing the Kings’ praises for their defensive style, but then a three-game losing streak where they averaged just two goals per game showed their limitations as well. However, there’s no denying that the Kings’ style is well-suited for the playoffs, so we’ll see what happens then. In a copycat league, though, you’re cheering against the Kings because the worst thing that could happen is if half the league starts implementing the 1-3-1.
15. St. Louis Blues (40-31-4, -10. CF%: 30, xGF%: 30)
There’s a chance, even if the odds are slim. The Blues are really the only team still in the playoff race in the West, and other than a home date against the Hurricanes and the season finale in Dallas, the Blues have a favorable schedule the rest of the way.
16. Detroit Red Wings (37-30-8, +2. CF%: 29, xGF%: 29)
With Dylan Larkin briefly hurt again on Saturday and Alex DeBrincat forgetting how to score goals, there’s a part of me that still can’t believe 35-year-old Patrick Kane is carrying this team. This is going to be a photo finish in the wild-card race in the East, and it was about time Alex Lyon busted his personal 10-game losing streak.
17. Philadelphia Flyers (36-29-11, -17. CF%: 9, xGF%: 9)
John Tortorella just gets more and more entertaining as the playoffs approach, and his delivery is still as honest as it is blunt. I’m already eager to see how tough their training camp will look like next season should they miss the playoffs.
18. Buffalo Sabres (36-35-5, even. CF%: 14, xGF%: 22)
The Sabres came into the season with a lot of hype, and it’s disappointing to miss the playoffs – they’re likely out of it – but it’s hard not to be impressed by their talented core and Tage Thompson’s recent surge. They’ll be a popular dark horse pick again next year.
19. Washington Capitals (36-28-10, -35. CF%: 26, xGF%: 26)
I, too, eat Subway footlongs and Flamin’ Hot Cheetos but, somehow, I’m no closer to scoring as many goals as Wayne Gretzky as my neighbor’s dog. What gives?! Jokes aside, that Tom Wilson suspension really came at an inopportune time. The Caps’ grip on the wild-card spot has weakened with a three-game winless streak.
20. Pittsburgh Penguins (34-30-11, +1. CF%: 10, xGF%: 12)
This team is essentially Sidney Crosby and everyone else because he’s head and shoulders better than everyone else. The Penguins are a carcass and require major surgery over the summer.
21. New Jersey Devils (36-35-4, -12. CF%: 7, xGF%: 7)
They had the Pens game in the bag until a third-period collapse when they allowed five goals sunk their playoff hopes. Sometimes, it feels like the different ways they manage to lose games rivals the creativity of Jack Hughes’ game.
22. Minnesota Wild (36-29-9, -8. CF%: 19, xGF%: 15)
The best part about tuning into Wild games now are the empty-net 3-on-3 overtimes where they’re going all or nothing. That and the North Stars-inspired alternate jerseys. I like the gamble, but two overtime losses to rivals in the playoff race were a double whammy.
23. Ottawa Senators (33-37-4, -18. CF%: 18, xGF%: 19)
Joonas Korpisalo went from 2-7-0 with a .874 save percentage and 4.05 GAA in December to a 6-2-1 with a .908 SP and 2.74 GAA in March. He’s living proof that goaltending is voodoo, and the inconsistency in net – along with the team’s play in front of him – are big reasons why the Sens have been so disappointing this season.
24. New York Islanders (33-27-15, -27. CF%: 25, xGF%: 20)
They can switch goalies all they want, but that’s really not the problem with his team. They constantly blow leads, they can’t score consistently, and the worst part is, I’m not sure how they recover from this with a capped-out team and a bare prospect pool.
25. Montreal Canadiens (29-33-12, -47. CF%: 28, xGF%: 25)
Forget about fantasies of Cole Caufield scoring 50 goals; Nick Suzuki is an elite player that no one’s talking about. Despite a mediocre record, the Habs have actually been a fun team to watch. They’ve won four of their last five, including impressive wins against the Avs and Panthers.
26. Arizona Coyotes (31-38-5, -22. CF%: 21, xGF%: 23)
They have a ton of scoring talent, which means they’re never dull. Logan Cooley may be their most hyped prospect, but I would argue that the real gem in their system right now is Dylan Guenther.
27. Seattle Kraken (31-30-13, -16. CF%: 13, xGF%: 16)
It’s been a pretty easy stretch for the Kraken, so we’ll have to take those three wins against the Sharks and Ducks with a big grain of salt. Sorry, but it’s true; the only two wins that the Kraken can really hang their hats on were the ones against the Flames and Jets, and that was a month ago.
28. Calgary Flames (34-35-5, -16. CF%: 16, xGF%: 18)
The Flames were 5-9-0 in March, fourth-worst by points percentage in the NHL, and they recorded just one win over the past two weeks. The spark that made them believe they had a chance of making the playoffs disappeared just as quickly as it came.
29. Columbus Blue Jackets (25-38-12, -56. CF%: 23, xGF%: 27)
The wins against the Pens and Avs were surprisingly nice, but the Jackets can only climb so far out of the basement of the power rankings, given they’re bound to finish in the bottom five.
30. Chicago Blackhawks (22-48-5, -96. CF%: 31, xGF%: 31)
Well, at least they have Connor Bedard for the next two decades. (Repeat ad nauseum.)
31. Anaheim Ducks (25-47-4, -88. CF%: 27, xGF%: 28)
At this point, if you lose to the Ducks, you might as well call it a season. They’ve lost 12 of their last 14, including four shutout losses. One of these days, the talent they’ve collected will all come together, but until then, we’re watching the other Duck Dynasty.
32. San Jose Sharks (17-49-8, -133. CF%: 32, xGF%: 32)
The final week of the regular season coincides with the start of the Masters. It’s going to be great watching Jon Rahm and Brooks Koepka compete against the PGA’s elite again, but let’s not forget about the NHL’s dramatic race for their green jacket as well; William Eklund has a two-shot lead over Filip Zadina at minus-43.