The Toronto Maple Leafs have been perennial first-round losers in the Auston Matthews era, but can their prospect pool mixed with solid talent and hopeful swings help strengthen an already impressive core?

The Toronto Maple Leafs are the team of focus in today's edition of the NHL prospect pool overview series.

Tony Ferrari will examine the Leafs’ strengths and weaknesses, briefly overview their latest draft class, where the team's positional depth chart stands, and who could be next in line for an NHL chance.

A player who no longer holds rookie eligibility in the NHL is considered graduated and no longer considered a prospect for these exercises, except in very specific cases.

First Thoughts

The Toronto Maple Leafs have been competitive since the Auston Matthews era started but unfortunately for the center of the hockey universe, the first round has been a challenge for them. They’ve made it out of the first round just once, getting manhandled for five games against Florida two years ago. The Leafs are at a critical juncture with their NHL stars as the future of Mitch Marner and John Tavares are both in question to varying degrees.

Let’s dive into the prospects and young players that could end up helping the team over the next couple of years.

Some think that Easton Cowan can make the Leafs out of camp but he is likely a longshot. He may get the Fraser Minten treatment from a year ago and get into a handful of NHL games before heading back to the London Knights for one final season in junior. Cowan is coming off an OHL MVP, Playoff MVP and OHL Championship season, dominating the competition and scoring the lights out whenever he was on the ice. Cowan is a playmaker who brings a nonstop motor and a high level of creativity to his passing. Cowan’s biggest test may come as he looks to be a leader on Team Canada at the World Junior Championship in December.

Minten looked a step behind when he got his four-game stint in the NHL at the start of last season but it helped him understand just how far his game has to come to play at the pro level. Minten is an excellent shooter who can contribute offensively with smart, simple play. His value comes from his instinctual two-way play and the physical edge that he brings. Minten ideally projects as a third-line center down the road but he will start the year in the AHL with the Toronto Marlies where he will be given plenty of opportunity to develop his game at the pro level.

Nikita Grebenkin (previously spelt Grebyonkin in Russia) signed his entry-level contract at the end of last season and he will be playing in North America this upcoming season if plans go accordingly. Grebenkin is a crafty, deceptive forward with some size and playmaking ability that could vault him near the top of the Leafs' prospect pool. Whether it’s faking a shot, a shoulder shimmy or altering his speed on the rush, Grebenkin is always creating room for himself to find passing and shooting lanes that are more favorable. How he adapts to playing in the AHL could dictate just how fast he finds himself in the NHL.

Jumping into the AHL for the first time last season, Roni Hirvonen looked solid, mostly as a winger. His game is built around his intelligence, reading the play and always putting himself in the right spot. He has a good shot and makes great connecting passes all over the ice. He stacks positive small plays together to make good things happen when he is on the ice. Hirvonen has a good defensive mind as well. Unless he can improve his mobility, his upside is likely limited to being a defensive-minded third-liner down the road.

Ryan Tverberg looked excellent in his first AHL season which continues his upward trajectory since being drafted in the seventh round at the 2020 NHL draft. He plays with a relentless motor, brings an element of power, and he’s developed his playmaking to a level that could make him a legitimate offensive threat at the pro level. Another solid year in the AHL could set the 22-year-old up for a chance at making the Leafs next summer.

Hyperskilled playmaking winger Ty Voit was set to play his first pro season last year but a shoulder injury at the Leafs' rookie tournament that was reaggravated just a few games into his season in December caused him to miss the rest of the year. Voit is a player many people were excited about and he’s been a bit forgotten because of the injury. If he can have a good AHL season, Voit could be back in the discussion as a legitimate prospect for Toronto.

The Leafs traded for Cade Webber at the deadline last year and then signed him when his college season was over. Webber was named the Best Defensive Defenseman in Hockey East last year. At 6-foot-7 and 210 pounds, Webber is a physical presence who uses his length and reach in the defensive end. His offensive game is limited to just moving the puck out of trouble and allowing the forwards to create offensively. A year in the AHL will likely be what’s best for his development.

In the AHL, Mikko Kokkonen has been a very solid defensive player who plays with some jam. His passing and shooting have improved over the last couple of years and he’s become a solid play stopper who can move the puck. He isn’t the kind of player that tries to do too much which limits his mistakes. Kokkonen could see NHL games this season if there are injuries on the Leafs’ roster and they need a reliable player on the third pair.

Topi Niemela put together a very solid first full season in the AHL, posting 39 points in 68 games from the back end. His passing ability is still a major strength of his game, as he always scans the ice and identifies the best pass option. Niemela may seem like an offensive defender but his defensive game is refined and smooth. He skates quite well and understands how to defend with his feet, angle players off, and dislodge the puck with his stick. Niemela has the potential to be a solid two-way player at the NHL level.

In net, Artur Akhtyamov is set to join Dennis Hildeby in the AHL. Akhtyamov is a smaller netminder but he’s athletic and has put up great numbers in the KHL and VHL over the last couple of years. He will need some time to adjust to the AHL but that’s why having Hildeby on the roster will be great. The 6-foot-7 Hildeby put together a fantastic season last year in the AHL as the starter. The Leafs have a solid couple of netminders in the AHL and one or both could eventually play NHL games with a year or two of AHL development.

U-23 Players Likely on the Roster

Matthew Knies (LW), Nick Robertson (LW/RW)

2024 NHL Draft Class

Round 1, 31st overall - Ben Danford, RD, Oshawa (OHL)

Round 4, 120th overall - Victor Johansson, LD, Leksand (Swe.-Jr)

Round 5, 151st overall - Miroslav Holinka, C, Trinec (Czech-Jr)

Round 5, 152nd overall - Alexander Plesovskikh, LW, Mamonty Yugry (Rus.-Jr)

Round 5, 157th overall - Timofei Obvintsev, G, CSKA (Rus.-Jr)

Round 7, 200th overall - Matt Lahey, LD, Nanaimo (BCHL)

Round 7, 216th overall - Sam McCue, LW, Owen Sound (OHL)

Round 7, 225th overall - Nathan Mayes, LD, Spokane (WHL)

The Leafs made eight total picks in Vegas but they only had one in the top 100 picks. While one was a first-rounder, the other seven were late-round picks that are ultimately hopeful swings and longshots. Toronto managed to identify some interesting players in the process nonetheless.

Trading down to the 31st pick, the Leafs got their guy in Ben Danford while picking up a pick later in the draft as well. Danford is a rock-solid defender who has very good mobility and shows some excellent passing on the breakout. He’s the kind of player that could probably be doing a bit more offensively, especially at the junior level, but he isn’t going to sacrifice his defensive game to do so. He’s always a step ahead of the incoming attacker, knowing what they are going to want to do and then preventing it by forcing them to the boards or making them chip the puck in behind him. Danford can finish with the body when needed but he isn’t forcing or chasing anything. Taking Danford in the first round isn’t sexy but it gives the Leafs a steady presence on the back end.

After trading away a second-round pick to Florida for a selection next year, the Leafs had to wait until the 120th overall pick to make their next selection. Victor Johansson was an interesting pick because he wasn’t ranked anywhere publicly. His production is a bit underwhelming but when you watch his film, the undersized defender can move out there. His game is built around his skating and passing ability but he is incredibly thin and needs to put on some weight. He defends well with his stick and jumps onto loose pucks when the chance arises.

The most interesting of the picks that Toronto made might be Czech center Miroslav Holinka who is coming to North America to play for the Edmonton Oil Kings in the WHL. Holinka is strong and skilled, always looking to get to the inside and attack defenders head-on. He put up big numbers in the Czech junior league and didn’t look entirely out of place in the Czech pro league. Holinka can dangle a defender on one shift and then lower his shoulder and bowl another over a shift later. He is inconsistent at times but he could be a very solid pick this late in the draft.

With the very next pick, the Leafs selected Russian winger Alexander Plesovskikh. He’s one of the younger players in the draft class at 18, but his game never really jumped out. He didn’t produce a whole lot in the Russian junior league and looked best when he was throwing his weight around. He can flash some playmaking ability but it almost looks like it comes from just needing to get rid of the puck rather than trying to create a play. He is a long-term development project but he could be a bottom-six checker.

The Leafs stayed in Russia a few picks later, grabbing 19-year-old netminder Timofei Obvintsev who was coming off a solid season with one of CSKA’s junior teams in Russia. He didn’t play all that much last year with just 16 games under his belt but the 6-foot-4 Russian improved as the year went on and had a dominant stretch throughout February. If Obvintsev can capture that form going forward, he could be of great value.

With three picks in the seventh round, Toronto grabbed a trio of interesting players starting with Matt Lahey, a 6-foot-5 defender who uses his length and size without chasing down needless hits. He can win battles along the boards by rotating his hips into an opposing player and locking them to the wall. Lahey isn’t much of an offensive producer but he will have time to refine his puck skill at Clarkson University where he will start in the fall.

The Leafs' penultimate draft selection was OHLer Sam McCue. The all-out energy forward is a hound off the puck and works his tail off to get it back for his team. He was traded from Peterborough to Owen Sound partway through this season and seemed to find a more stable footing in Owen Sound. As one of the older first-time eligibles, McCue is a bit more physically developed at this stage as well.

To cap off their draft day, Toronto took yet another big defender in Nathan Mayes from the Spokane Chiefs of the WHL. Mayes doesn’t have the highest-end skating and his puck skill is a bit underwhelming but he flashes some nice passing on the breakout from time to time. Where Mayes excels – like many of the other picks Toronto made in the 2024 draft – is with his physicality and desire to send opponents flying from a thunderous hit. Mayes certainly isn’t one to shy away from contact.

Strengths

The strength of the Leafs’ prospect pool is that they seem to have found a solid pipeline of above-replacement-level players up front. They don’t have a star with Easton Cowan being the only player with true top-six upside and any assurance that he will get there. Players such as Minten, Grebenkin, and Hirvonen could all be good pros in a year or two, but none will be difference-makers. The Leafs have done a good job of finding plug-and-play guys, even if they don’t make it to the NHL until they are a bit older like Bobby McMann or Pontus Holmberg.

Weaknesses

The Leafs lack a real difference-maker throughout their prospect pool but on the back end, they have Niemela and Danford who can be solid two-way middle or bottom-pair defenders. They don’t have anyone who could realistically sniff the top pair. Prioritizing defenders near the top of the draft next year might be a good idea but they don't have a first, third or fourth-round pick next year so it might be tough.

Next Man Up: Hirvonen, Minten, Kokkonen or Webber

The Leafs NHL roster is pretty set and they don’t have a hole that would directly go to a young player. They have several good players who are extra forwards or defenders with NHL experience and they have plenty of AHL depth. It will have to be a situation where the Leafs need a specific thing from the player coming in. Maybe they want a solid, smart center who can just keep things even while he’s on the ice and they bring in Minten. There could be an injury to a few defenders and they need a young guy to come in and just keep things simple so they call up Kokkonen or Webber. The Maple Leafs could legitimately be near the bottom of the league when it comes to games played by rookies this season.

Prospect Depth Chart Notables

LW: Roni Hirvonen, Ty Voit, Alexander Plesovskikh, Sam McCue

C: Fraser Minten, Braeden Kressler, Miroslav Holinka, Jacob Quillan, Joe Miller

RW: Easton Cowan, Nikita Grebenkin, Ryan Tverberg, Nicholas Moldenhauer

LD: Mikko Kokkonen, Cade Webber, Noah Chadwick,

RD: Topi Niemela, Ben Danford, William Villeneuve, Victor Johansson

G: Artur Akhtyamov, Vyacheslav Peksa, Dennis Hildeby, Timofei Obstintsev

For a deeper dive into the prospect pool with player rankings, check out the Yearbook and Future Watch editions of the Hockey News print edition!