Behind the Recent Dip in Lukas Dostal's Numbers

Heading into the NHL’s 4-Nations Face-off break on Feb. 8, the Ducks had battled back to claim a .500 record (24-24-6) and had won seven of eight games, capped off by back-to-back wins against the Dallas Stars and Los Angeles Kings. It was the first time they’d been at that mark since they were 10-10-3 on Dec. 1, 2024.

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Every traditional and underlying metric suggested the most substantial reason they’d remained within shouting distance of .500 to that point was the Vezina-caliber performance of their goaltending tandem, sophomore sensation Lukas Dostal and calculated veteran John Gibson. The team as a whole was putting in spirited efforts on a nightly basis and finding ways to win. The numbers and process were showing signs of improvement as well.

Lukas Dostal (24) has started 41 and appeared in 45 of the Ducks’ 70 games this season, increasing his usage rate from his rookie season, where he started 38 games and appeared in 44. He has a .907 SV% and has saved 16.11 goals above expected, stats made more impressive because he’s seen the most shots per 60 minutes (32.07) of any goaltender in the NHL (min 25 games) this season.

Dostal’s running mate in the Anaheim crease, John Gibson, has battled various injuries and ailments since suffering a ruptured appendix during Ducks’ training camp in September. Since play resumed following the break, Gibson’s only been able to start four games for the Ducks and has only been able to finish two, leaving the other two with injuries.

Gibson’s name had been prominent in trade discussions for as long as recent memory serves. Cited reasoning for a trade not finding its way over the finish line this season has been Gibson’s health and Ducks general manager Pat Verbeek’s high asking price. From a Ducks perspective, moving on from Gibson would have meant handing the crease completely over to Dostal, perhaps something they weren’t ready to do at this point in the young netminder’s career.

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If that was indeed the Ducks’ thought process on the matter, their concerns might be manifesting in the team’s last 16-game stretch since late February. Since Feb. 22, the Ducks have a 6-8-2 record and a 5-6-2 record in games decided when Dostal is in net. He has performed admirably and better than should have been asked during that time despite the dip in his numbers, which, prior to the break, had been dwelling in the stratosphere.

Since the NHL returned to play, Dostal has a .895 SV% and has saved -1.45 goals above expected. It is unfair to assign blame completely at his feet, the numbers are imperfect, and he’s given the Ducks a chance to win far more often than the play in front of him should dictate, but his play has shown a crack or two of late as he’s let a handful of shots uncharacteristically find their way through him that he would have found ways to stop earlier in the season.

Dostal has played a lot of hockey in the last calendar year. After appearing in over half of the Ducks games in 2023-24, he started eight of ten games for his native Czechia en route to an IIHF World Championship gold medal in May. In 2024-25, he’s now on pace to start in 48 NHL games and, during his time in net, see the most shots of any goaltender in the NHL.

Dostal’s machine-like work ethic and dedication to refining his craft have elevated him into the conversation among the NHL’s brightest young stars between the pipes. His economic movements and positioning in the crease are coupled perfectly with his ability to track pucks throughout the defensive zone and fight through traffic to make difficult perimeter shots look easy to stop. He’s taken his game management skills to another level this season, as he’s recognizing when to freeze pucks behind a tired defense in front of him or play pucks to retrievers in order to potentially capitalize on changing opponents.

Is Dostal ready to take the next step in his career progression and become the new bonafide starter in Anaheim in 2025-26 should a Gibson trade come to fruition as has been indicated it might in the 2025 offseason?

The answer is likely yes, given two conditions: 1. He isn’t tasked with starting 60-plus games, as the days of having a “set it and forget it” nightly starter in the modern-day NHL are dwindling. Those circumstances are reserved for the sport’s most elite veterans like Connor Hellebuyck, Igor Shesterkin, and Andrei Vasilevskiy. And 2. The team defense in front of him ensures he is no longer among the NHL leaders in shots and high-danger shots faced per 60 minutes.

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