Who Wins The Selke Race Without Bergeron?

It's September, which means we have hockey this month! With that in mind, The Hockey News looks at the races for NHL Awards heading into the season. Without Patrice Bergeron to compete with, the Selke race is wide open. Could a new crop of young players get their due?

For the first time since 2011, Patrice Bergeron will not be nominated for the Selke Award that recognizes the NHL's best defensive forward. One of the greatest two-way forwards in NHL history retired after collecting his sixth Selke trophy, an NHL record. No one in the modern era of sport has dominated a major league award the way Bergeron has. Not Lebron, Ohtani, McDavid, or even Brady. Bergeron has consistently been at the top of the pyramid, setting the standard for generations to come. 

Without Bergeron, a new era of defensive forwards has been ushered in. Sure, there have been outstanding performances by Anze Kopitar, Sasha Barkov and Ryan O'Reilly. Those forwards are aging and have seen a drop-off in their defensive play, opening the door for a new crop of forwards to emerge. 

Two-Headed Monster

When evaluating for the Selke, points somehow are considered, they shouldn't be. This isn't an offensive award, but given how it has been awarded, it has been considered for this category. Key components of a Selke-worthy player are winning tough matchups against high Quality of Competition (QoC), successful penalty killing, defensive zone starts and face-off wins. There are two players at the top of the pile when it comes to potential for perennial Selke contention. 

Nico Hishcier, the young two-way Devils forward has proven to be one of the NHL's elite defensive centres. Given that point totals matter for the Selke (they shouldn't), it helps his case that he will be on a high octane team for years to come with the potential for 70+ points per season. Hischier finished second in Selke voting in 2022-23 and should be considered the favourite entering this season. Given that he will be New Jersey's premier shut down centre for the foreseeable future, taking the lion's share of tough matchups to free up Jack Hughes, he will be at the forefront of most Selke conversations for years to come. Hischier has produced more takeaways than giveaways in every season, is New Jersey's best penalty killer and routinely drives his line to positive possession metrics despite very high defensive zone start % and elite competition. That is a nightmare combination of skills that could propel Hischier to multiple Selke wins and gives his current line of +350 good value. 

Elias Pettersson could've been the third nominee this season if not for a lack lustre defensive performance by the rest of his team. At +1000, Pettersson's line is valuable considering Rick Tocchet's defensive demands. WIthout Horvat, Pettersson is Tocchet's only elite two-way option to be impactful at both ends of the ice. Regardless of his 99-point season and elite offensive capability, Pettersson saw a significant increase in DZS% and penalty killing. Despite a dismal penalty kill that is expected to improve this season, he registered the most shorthanded points in 2022-23, with nine. At 5v5, he drove play to a point where every Vancouver player had better metrics with him than without him. The drop-off for most players was significant, while Pettersson's play remained consistent throughout the season. Routinely against tough competition, he produced the best expected goals for and against raw numbers - he was the Canucks' best player at both ends of the ice and it wasn't particularly close. If Pettersson can continue to dominate at both ends of the ice, he'll be in the Selke and Hart conversations for years to come. 

Up & Comers

Two rookies inserted themselves into the conversation this year and while they weren't given their due, their time will come if their play continues. The thing about the Selke is it is very similar to the Norris. You have to be a known commodity before you win, so these two players are probably two or three years away. 

Noah Cates, the lone bright spot in Philadelphia last season, had elite even strength defensive metrics despite his teammates. He did not produce offensively the way most Selke contenders do, but his defence is a key strong point. With Couturier's health in jeopardy, Cates will continue to carry the heavy load of DZ starts and premier penalty killing time. At present, he is one of the best defensive forwards in the game. Should he continue to improve, it will be hard to ignore his case for the Selke, regardless of his point totals. The Metropolitan has no shortage of offensive firepower and any level of success in keeping the elite players at bay, should merit legitimate consideration. His line of +3000 is valuable, but given the history of the award, he is unlikely to be recognized for his elite play as a sophomore. 

The same cannot be said for Matty Beniers who roared onto the scene in Seattle last season with a Calder win. Not only that, there was legitimate conversation about his Lady Byng candidacy and future Selke potential. Beniers showcased his two-way ability out of the gate, driving the play at both ends of the ice. It is reasonable to assume that his play will continue to improve and thus, he will earn harder minutes and a role on the penalty kill. Beniers is a known commodity that many will have their eyes on because of his Calder win and Seattle's surge in the playoffs last spring. There will be more scrutiny and Dave Hakstol is likely to use him in tougher situations this season. It is an opportunity he has earned and one he is likely to thrive in. 

The Winger Debate

A winger not winning the Selke trophy recently is somewhat perplexing given there have been quite a few options. While centre is the tougher position to play, a player who drives play from the wing, is impactful on the penalty kill and boasts elite defensive metrics shouldn't be penalized. The first player who comes to mind is Mark Stone. There have been two or three seasons where he's likely earned a Selke and been short changed because he plays the wing. Stone has been one of the best defensive forwards for half a decade and is yet to rewarded for his efforts. At +3000, his line has value as analytics becomes a bigger part of the conversation to understand a player's defensive impact. Stone has been nominated four times in the last seven years, is widely considered to be the league's best takeaway man, and an elite defensive player. 

Mitch Marner is the second player deservedly in the conversation after a nomination this past season. An elite offensive player, Marner's defensive play has steadily improved and with it, his DZ starts, quality of competition and penalty kill role. He's Toronto's premier penalty killer where he is consistently a threat to create offensively and kill time with his puck skill. Marner is used to close out close games, wins the possession battles and drives play from the wing. A takeaway artist and adept reader of the play, Marner is in solid positions all over the ice making it difficult for teams to attack off the rush. His agile skating makes him difficult to maneuver around in the defensive zone where he routinely strips players of pucks to go the other way. Marner's received appropriate attention for his two-way play, but +600 is not enough value fora winger in today's voting landscape. 

If a winger is going to win, it is highly likely to be one of these two. For the record, both are deserving of Selke nominations, particularly because they excel against elite competition and are key cogs of two of the NHL's best teams at both ends of the ice. 

The Known Commodities

These two players have received their due, are known to voters and should be around the conversation for the next few seasons. At +1200, neither Sasha Barkov nor Michael Backlund have value on their lines. 

Barkov and Backlund have been two of the best defensive centres in the NHL for some time. Barkov has Tkachuk, another solid two-way player on his line and should continue to produce elite defensive results. He remains the premier penalty killer in Florida, but the emergence of Sam Reinhart has taken some defensive load of his shoulders. While that is positive for his team, it may hurt his Selke case if he's not consistently shutting down top opponents. Regardless, Barkov is a proven commodity in the conversation and is always among the first to be discussed when two-way forwards are ranked. 

Backlund is one of the more under appreciated players in the NHL, likely because he plays in the West. He's been an elite defensive players for quite a few years and certainly benefited from a Darryl Sutter system. With a new coach and system this season, it will be interesting to see how Backlund is deployed and what situations he is called upon in. Expect a heavy dose of penalty killing and some tough competition, depending on the outcome of the Elias Lindholm situation. Backlund is more than capable of shutting down the NHL's elite players and continues to drive positive possession with heavy defensive zone deployment.