With Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, the Oilers’ worry isn’t the regular season, but whether or not they can win the Cup. This is a contract year for McDavid and no one in the league can tilt the fortunes of all 32 teams like McDavid with a single decision.
The Oilers overhauled their winger depth and it remains to be seen if that changes anything. They’re still missing a 4C, the defense can be shaky at times and their goaltending woes are well-documented. Swapping out wingers feels cosmetic though, in reality, the Oilers’ hands are tied due to the cap and the uncertainty surrounding McDavid’s contract situation.
It’s very difficult to make predictions before training camp opens, but with Zach Hyman on the shelf to start the season, one of the biggest questions is what the Oilers’ lines will look like. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has been consistently on McDavid’s left wing. Lefty Vasily Podkolzin seems more comfortable on his strong side, and he received a strong endorsement from Draisaitl so they’ll likely stay together. This means the Oilers are looking for two top-six right wingers, and this is a difficult given how many left-hand shots are on the Oilers roster.
Matthew Savoie seems like a logical choice. He was a top-10 pick with immense offensive skill, and netted 19 goals and 54 points in 66 games with AHL Bakersfield. He needs to be sheltered, as he was in a four-game stint last season when he started in the offensive zone 65 percent of the time. He’s a right-hand shot with plenty of skill.
David Tomasek would be a safe choice. He’s got size, plenty of pro experience and he’s a proven scorer in the Swedish and Czech leagues. With a healthy lineup, you wonder which player will get pushed out with the Oilers’ glut of wingers. It’s not ideal to rotate throughout the entire season as it can be disruptive to building chemistry.
Isaac Howard faces a big challenge despite being a Hobey Baker winner. The microscope will be on him early after spurning the Lightning and he comes into the season with a lot of hype. Historically, NCAA players – no matter how decorated – still face a huge adjustment period in the pros. (Remember Jimmy Vesey?) Skating is Howard’s forte and he’s got good hands, so there are no worries about his talent. The issue is he’s very inexperienced – even less so than Savoie – and another lefty shooter. THN Yearbook & Fantasy Guide projects Howard to score 36 points, sixth among Oilers forwards and only one point ahead of Podkolzin.
There are others, such as Andrew Mangiapane, Trent Frederic and even Kasperi Kapanen, who can step in, but none are feasible long-term solutions. How the lines shake out, and who gets Hyman’s coveted spot at both even strength and on the power play, will get a short-term boost in fantasy value until Hyman returns.
Defense can be a problem if Mattias Ekholm, who appeared in just seven playoff games, cannot stay healthy. He will turn 36 this coming season and he’s at an age when health and declining play are real concerns. Kris Letang, Drew Doughty, Alex Pietrangelo and John Carlson are four defensemen who were 35 years old last season and played at least 22 minutes per game; except for certain stretches, they’re all clearly on the downside of their careers.
Evan Bouchard is fantastic in fantasy but in real life has enough warts on the defensive side of the puck where he cannot be relied upon to play a shutdown role. Darnell Nurse can be good in certain roles, but there are other players who can play the same role (if not better) for a cheaper price, and his contract hampers the Oilers from making big moves.
Jake Walman is interesting. He’s got a lot of skill but was punted by both the Red Wings and Sharks in short order, and he’ll always sit behind Bouchard on the power play depth chart, hampering his fantasy value. He may be worth rostering in deeper leagues, however, with the ability to contribute in both blocks and hits.
In net, Stuart Skinner gets a lot of flak, and rightfully so, but I can’t help but feel the criticism against him has become a little extreme. He’s capable of having really strong games, but consistency remains elusive. I don’t feel this is a 1A-1B situation with Calvin Pickard – Skinner is clearly the preferred starter – and remains a top-20 goalie if only by virtue of his ability to get 30 wins behind such a strong offense.
Over the past three seasons, Skinner ranks seventh in wins with 91. Only four goalies – Connor Hellebuyck, Jake Oettinger, Andrei Vasilevskiy and Igor Shesterkin – have more wins and a substantially better save percentage, which means Skinner is closer to elite than a backup.
Prediction:
Obviously, McDavid and Draisaitl continue to carry this team. Knoblauch continues to rotate wingers through Draisaitl’s line with varying degrees of success, but the lack of quality depth on the fourth line and bottom pairing prevent the Oilers from dominating the Pacific Division.
Goaltending proves to be the least of their worries as Skinner wins 30 games for the second in his career though they struggle to defend when Ekholm is out of the lineup. The Oilers offer elite fantasy options and a smattering of 50-60-point players but little else.
All stats courtesy of naturalstattrick.com, moneypuck.com, hockeyviz.com, allthreezones.com, hockey-reference.com, eliteprospects.com unless otherwise noted.