Breakout Candidate: Kaedan Korczak, D
By no means will Korczak be fantasy relevant, but I think there’s a chance that, at some point this season, he leapfrogs Zach Whitecloud on the depth chart and forms the second pair with Noah Hanifin. He’s big, mobile and dependable, and put up very good underlying metrics in sheltered minutes last season. The Knights are obviously confident in his abilities to give him a long-term extension despite his lack of experience and playing time. It’s possible Korczak retains some fantasy value with 100 blocks and 100 hits.
Buy Low Candidate: William Karlsson, C
Even with Jack Eichel and Tomas Hertl ahead of him, expect Karlsson to play significant minutes. He’s never averaged less than 17 since joining the Knights, and there have been the occasional season where his shooting percentage massively spikes, like in 2017-18 when he scored 43 goals and again in 2023-24 when he scored 30 goals.
He’s not a high-volume shooter and nor is he a particularly good finisher, but I’m willing to bet that he’s better than the nine goals in 53 games he scored last season. It’s highly unlikely he’ll touch 30 goals without meaningful power play minutes, but a 20-goal season with at least 500 face-offs could still have some value in multi-category leagues.
Riser: Brett Howden, C/LW
I’m keeping an eye on him if only because his 23-goal season seems like such an outlier, and it’s worth noting his 18.4 shooting percentage. However, there’s no denying that Howden, a first-round draft pick in 2017, has really started to elevate his game in recent seasons. He’s a physical role player who can play just about anywhere in the lineup, and that will be key if Bruce Cassidy wishes to line juggle a bit and break up Jack Eichel and Mitch Marner onto separate lines.
Faller: Reilly Smith, RW
Strangely enough, Smith has put up the exact same totals – 13 goals, 27 assists – in each of his past two seasons, but two things are definitely in decline: his shot totals and minutes. That’s a bad combo for a scoring winger, and at this point he’s more of a middle-six winger trending towards bottom six rather than staying on the second line.
This is a contract season for Smith, who signed a one-year deal to return to the team where he’s had the most success in an effort to build up more value so he may cash in big next summer. But this is a very different team than the one he had left, and the ‘Misfits’ line is missing one-third of its original members in Jonathan Marchessault. Even at the higher end of expectations with Smith scoring 20 goals and registering at least 150 shots, it puts him only on the very cusp of fantasy relevance.
All stats courtesy of naturalstattrick.com, moneypuck.com, hockeyviz.com, allthreezones.com, hockey-reference.com, eliteprospects.com unless otherwise noted.