2023-24 NHL Prospect Pool Overview: Detroit Red Wings

The Detroit Red Wings have talent at about every position in their prospect pool, writes Tony Ferrari. But do they have a true future NHL star forward?

Tony Ferrari continues to analyze each team’s prospect pool during the NHL off-season with the Detroit Red Wings next on the list.

In this series, Tony Ferrari digs into each team’s strengths and weaknesses, their latest draft class, where their positional depth chart stands, and who could be next in line for a shot at the NHL. Note that a player who no longer holds rookie eligibility in the NHL is considered graduated and no longer considered a prospect for the purposes of these exercises unless mentioned otherwise.

When a team is going through a rebuild, they accumulate bountiful and diverse prospect pools. Detroit is no exception as the ‘Yzerplan’ has taken full effect. The team has a prospect pipeline with talent at just about every position, and they should have players at each position pushing for NHL jobs sooner than later.

Marco Kasper has been a revelation since being drafted. While many, including myself, questioned his offensive skill and upside, he came out this past season and routinely showed he has confidence with the puck and was creating regularly at the SHL level. Kasper has a refined two-way game and understands the nuances of playing in the center of the ice. He joined the Red Wings for one game at the end of last year before a nagging knee injury prevented him from playing more. He could compete for a job in camp.

Another player with NHL games last season was ‘Lord Elmer’ himself, Elmer Soderblom. The towering behemoth found his way onto the NHL roster until just after the New Year, playing in 21 games with the big club before finishing the year in Grand Rapids. Soderblom has incredible skill that isn’t often seen in a player who stands 6-foot-8. His ability to shoot a puck from between his legs in tight or elevate with a defender riding his back is impressive. His skating isn’t a strength, but he’s shown time and time again that he can work through it at every level.

Carter Mazur has been deemed many times as the Red Wings' next ultra-pest scorer, and while he appreciates comparisons to players such as Tyler Bertuzzi, among others, he brings his own flair to the game. Mazur has an excellent shot and can finish from all over the ice. His hands in tight are excellent, and he works hard in the tough areas to maintain possession. He could be an excellent complementary player who brings the finishing touch to any line.

The Red Wings drafted one of the most exciting players to watch in Dmitri Buchelnikov last year as an overage pick. His skill and entertainment value are undeniable, but the translatability of his game is questionable. Another player that fits that mold is Amadeus Lombardi, who was drafted out of the OHL in the ‘lost year’ but has since exploded and dazzled with his skill and creativity. If either one of Lombardi or Buchelnikov hit, the Red Wings could have a lethal scorer on their hands.

The back end is an interesting mix of skill sets. There are offensive wizards with the puck who can create something from nothing and defensive stalwarts that can shut down an opponent's cycle with excellent stick work or bone-crushing physicality. They’ve done an excellent job of changing things up whenever anyone has felt like they’ve nailed what Detroit is looking for on the back end.

Simon Edvinsson is the cream of the crop, bringing a combination of size, skill, offensive creativity and defensive fortitude. It was evident during last year’s pre-season that he needed to refine some of his traits to round into form, but the developmental step he took last year was exactly what the Wings wanted to see. By the time he came up to the NHL, he was a completely different player and put together an impressive nine-game stint. A shoulder surgery in May with a four- to sixth-month recovery time puts the start of his season in doubt, but we could see him establish an NHL role full-time by Christmas.

The Red Wings have made it a habit of drafting a defenseman only for them to be one of the best young blueliners in Sweden. After Moritz Seider and Edvinsson looked stellar in the SHL the two prior years, William Wallinder was their standout last year. The Red Wings drafted him because of his plentiful tools, hoping the young Swede would be able to put it all together. If last year is any indication, Wallinder has figured out just that. His skating is impressive, his puck skill is high-end, and he understands how to move play positively. A year in the AHL next year will do wonders for acclimating him to North American hockey.

Detroit made a bold decision at the 2021 NHL draft by trading up for a goalie. When everyone assumed they would take Jesper Wallstedt, they took Sebastian Cossa. The hulking 6-foot-6 netminder jumped to the pro-level last year as a 20-year-old and spent most of the season in the ECHL, posting very good numbers. He went through a stretch from mid-February to mid-March where he was nearly unbeatable, posting three shutouts and allowing more than one goal just once in a nine-game stretch. The expectation is that he will take ahold of the crease in the AHL this year.

Round 1, 9th overall - Nate Danielson, C, Brandon (WHL)

Round 1, 17th overall - Axel Sandin-Pellikka, RD, Skelleftea (SHL)

Round 2, 41st overall - Trey Augustine, G, U.S. NTDP (USHL)

Round 2, 42nd overall - Andrew Gibson, RD, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)

Round 2, 47th overall - Brady Cleveland, LD, U.S. NTDP (USHL)

Round 3, 73rd overall - Noah Dower Nilsson, LW, Frolunda J20 (Sweden Jr.)

Round 4, 117th overall - Larry Keenan, LD, Culver Military Academy Prep (USHS)

Round 5, 137th overall - Jack Phelan, RD, Sioux Falls (USHL)

Round 5, 147th overall - Kevin Bicker, LW, Mannheim (DNL)

Round 6, 169th overall - Rudy Guimond, G, Taft School (Conn-HS)

Round 7, 201st overall - Emmitt Finnie, LW, Kamloops (WHL)

The Detroit Red Wings had plenty of draft capital coming into the 2023 festivities, and they made sure to use it to load up their prospect pool further. They made some interesting picks and some off-the-board choices, but GM Steve Yzerman and director of amateur scouting Kris Draper have a track record of success, which leads to trust from the fans.

With two picks in the top 20, the Red Wings were primed to make a big splash. At ninth overall, they selected Nate Danielson, a center from the Brandon Wheat Kings. It was a pick similar to the Marco Kasper selection the year before. They add a speedy center who can play a sound game at both ends of the ice but may have left some offensive upside on the table. Kasper proved doubters wrong in his first season since being drafted, and it will be on Danielson to do the same. Danielson is an excellent transition center who can get the puck up ice, and he has shown flashes of high-end finishing ability. The Wheat Kings co-captain must show that his environment limited him offensively last year, and he has more in the tank. Get to know Nate Danielson and see how he sees his game in this Game Tape interview.

The Red Wings' pick at 17th overall was more of a swing for the fences with Axel Sandin Pellikka. The high-flying puck-mover is a dynamic presence on the back end with flashes of skill and playmaking that are rare in a blueliner. He is a bit undersized, but he defends well, using his mobility and excellent stick. His panic threshold is impressive, rarely getting flustered in his own zone. He will have to adjust to the pace of the North American game on smaller ice, but he showed to be a capable defender against men in the SHL. Where Danielson was a safe pick, A.S.P. was the reach for the stars. Sandin Pellikka joined The Hockey News to break down film and showcase his personality as well.

The Red Wings drafted Cossa with a top 15 pick just two years ago, but when Trey Augustine was available in the early second round, he was too good to pass up. The NTDP netminder is heading to Michigan State, where he will develop over the next couple of years in a program that has been getting rave reviews since Adam Nightingale took over as the coach. Augustine put up some of the best numbers the NTDP has ever seen. He may only be 6-foot-1, but he’s proven to be an excellent puck tracker and has shown his athleticism and technical prowess by seemingly always being in position.

The next pick in the draft also belonged to Detroit, and they added right-shot defender Andrew Gibson from the Soo Greyhounds. Gibson is a defense-first blueliner who flashed some puck-moving ability but was hampered by an injury throughout his draft year. There may be a bit more to unlock in that regard but, at worst, they have a player with a physical brand of hockey and can shut down cycles before moving the puck up to his forwards.

At 47th overall, Detroit snagged one of the most physically imposing players in the draft by selecting Brady Cleveland from the NTDP. His puck skills and offensive upside leave something to be desired, but the 6-foot-5 defender, who is committed to the University of Wisconsin, is a heat-seeking missile, eliminating opposing puck carriers with thunderous body checks.

In one of the more heart-warming moments of the draft, the Red Wings selected Noah Dower Nilsson, the brother of fellow Red Wings prospect Liam Dower Nilsson, in the third round. The Dower Nilsson brothers embraced each other with a big hug at the draft, and the siblings will look to make the same NHL club in a couple of years. The younger Dower Nilsson tore up Swedish junior hockey this year with his intelligence and puckhandling, but his skating will need some work.

The fourth and fifth rounds saw Detroit take a couple of relatively unknown defenders in Larry Keenan and Jack Phelan. Keenan is a U.S. high school player heading to the Penticton Vees of the BCHL next season before the University of Massachusetts the following year. He is a physical defender with some raw tools, but there will be plenty of rounding out to do. Phelan is a defense-first rearguard who played in the USHL with the Sioux Falls Stampede last year. His puck skills are a concern, and his upside is limited because of it, but the Red Wings clearly liked the size and physical package.

They took a few swings late in the draft, with German winger Kevin Bicker being the most intriguing. He has a high motor and plays a 200-foot game, which could make him a solid bottom-six forward at the NHL level, but his offensive tools have room to grow. You see flashes of something interesting, but he seemed to lack the confidence to follow through consistently, opting for the safe play more often than not.

The Red Wings' strength is certainly their defensive pipeline. While they have a deep and strong prospect pool just about everywhere – and goaltending could easily take up this spot – they have a boat load of defenders. The likelihood that they will have to move some increases every day. Fortunately, they have the luxury of waiting it out and allowing the chips to fall where they may before making any decisions. With Seider leading the charge on the back end, Edvinsson right behind him, and Sandin Pellikka looking like a fit in a couple of years, it will be about which defenders round out the NHL top six. It’s a very good problem to have.

The Red Wings' weakness is a truly effective, dynamic-scoring forward. Danielson, Kasper, Mazur, and Soderblom all look like legit NHL candidates over the next couple of years, but none project to be a true star. Buchelnikov and Lombardi have some dynamic qualities but also seem a tier below star status, even if they reach their ceiling. 

The Red Wings have been cursed with the worst lottery luck of any team in the last decade, which has attributed to the lack of a Jack Hughes or Adam Fantilli on the roster. The Red Wings could use some lottery luck in the near future as they look to come out of the rebuild. Maybe they get that this year and end up with a Macklin Celebrini or Cole Eiserman.

The easy answer here would have been Edvinsson, but his recovery from shoulder surgery may hold him out of the start of the year. Throwing him right into the NHL without a proper training camp or buildup would be cruel. That lands up on Kasper, who had a single-game stint with the Wings in which he looked ready to play. He has the luxury of starting low in the lineup and working his way up as he acclimates to the NHL pace of play. He may not be knocking on the door for a Calder Trophy nod next season, but he could find himself in 60 or more NHL games and playing an effective role as the season progresses.

LW: Carter Mazur, Dmitri Buchelnikov, Cross Hanas, Kevin Bicker, Noah Dower Nilsson

C: Marco Kasper, Nate Danielson, Amadeus Lombardi, Liam Dower Nilsson, Red Savage

RW: Elmer Soderblom, Theodor Niederbach

LD: Simon Edvinsson, William Wallinder, Albert Johansson, Eemil Viro, Brady Cleveland

RD: Axel Sandin Pellikka, Antti Tuomisto, Andrew Gibson, Jack Phelan

G: Sebastian Cossa, Trey Augustine, Jan Bednar

For a deeper dive into the prospect pool with player rankings, check out the Yearbook, Prospects Unlimited and Future Watch print editions of The Hockey News.