The New York Islanders' remaining prospect pool is arguably somewhat barren, writes Tony Ferrari. But there are a couple of players to get excited about.
The New York Islanders' remaining prospect pool is arguably somewhat barren, writes Tony Ferrari. But there are a couple of players to get excited about.
As the NHL off-season ticks on, Tony Ferrari continues to analyze each team’s prospect pool, with the New York Islanders next up.
In this series, Tony Ferrari digs into each team’s strengths and weaknesses, their latest draft class, where their positional depth chart stands, and who could be next in line for a shot at the NHL. Note that a player who no longer holds rookie eligibility in the NHL is considered graduated and no longer considered a prospect for the purposes of these exercises unless mentioned otherwise.
Introduction
Under GM Lou Lamoriello, the Islanders have gone to two conference finals in five years, which would be more successful than most teams across the NHL. That said, those appearances came in his first few years, and the last couple of seasons have been a bit rough. They missed the playoffs entirely in 2021-22 and then narrowly squeaked in this season. They traded their first-round pick in both of the last two seasons, which certainly doesn’t help their prospect pipeline, but they hope adding Alexander Romanov (traded for their 2022 first-round pick) and Bo Horvat (traded for their 2023 first-round pick) will be enough to get them over the hump.
The Islanders won’t be relying on their prospect pool to help out a ton this season, as most of their players still have long development paths or lack the impact they need to get over the hump. The Isles' pipeline is widely regarded as one of the most barren in the NHL at the moment, but they may still have a few effective players in their back pocket.
William Dufour had a fantastic rookie season in the AHL, putting up 48 points in 69 games. He is a good shooter who looks to put the puck just above the pad or under the goalie's arm. He hides his shot well and looks to surprise netminders. He moves well but could be a bit more agile. He is willing to engage physically and gets involved in puck battles regularly. Dufour is one of the only prospects who seem ready to help in the NHL roster.
Matthew Maggio is joining the Bridgeport Islanders full-time next season – he appeared in three AHL games after leading the OHL in scoring this past campaign. He isn’t the quickest or strongest player, but Maggio plays with determination and an excellent sense of time and space. He gets to his spots at the right time, settling into pockets and using his shot to beat goalies from high-danger areas or using his vision to one-touch pass as he cuts across the faceoff dots. Maggio could be a hidden gem as a player who had his draft year stolen from him because of the COVID-19 pandemic.
On the back end, 6-foot-4 Samuel Bolduc got a taste of NHL action after having a bit of an up-and-down AHL career so far. The 22-year-old had a nice first season, took a step back in the second year, and earned an NHL call-up in Year 3. Development is rarely linear, and Bolduc is a perfect example. He has all of the tools you’d want as a modern defender. He displays flashes of puck skill and can defend in space and on the boards. His issue is being wildly inconsistent, and he often disappears for stretches. If he can find consistency, he has top-four potential.
Calle Odelius is the defender with the highest upside in the system. The young Swede is a skilled puck-mover and deceptive skater. He reads pressure quickly and makes passes without hesitation. Odelius is a decent defender, but he must become a bit more willing to engage physically because he shies away from that side of the game at the moment. He will go as far as his playmaking brings him, but he must round out other parts of his game to allow him to get that chance.
The Isles may have a hidden gem in Isaiah George. He is a skilled puck-mover who excels at evading traffic with his feet. George is a solid defender and excellent transition player who has shown a few instances of offensive flair. He isn’t the biggest defender at just six-feet, but he uses his mobility and stick work to prevent chances against.
The goaltending pipeline isn’t stellar, but thankfully, they just locked up Ilya Sorokin long-term. Tristan Lennox has had spurts of success, playing in the Hockey Canada system and earning praise for his performance at times. He has excellent vision and great size at 6-foot-4, but he isn’t a clean skater at times, which could limit his pro potential. He could find his way to an NHL backup gig eventually, but the Isles don’t have to rush anything.
2023 NHL Draft Class
Round 2, 49th overall - Danny Nelson, C/LW, U.S. NTDP (USHL)
Round 4, 113th overall - Jesse Nurmi, LW, KooKoo U-20 (U-20 SM-sarja)
Round 5, 145th overall - Justin Gill, C, Sherbrooke (QMJHL)
Round 6, 177th overall - Zachary Schulz, LD, U.S. NTDP (USHL)
Round 7, 209th overall - Dennis Good Bogg, LD, AIK J20 (Sweden Jr.)
After trading their first-round pick before the trade deadline, the Islanders didn’t pick until the mid-second round. Danny Nelson was one of the late-season risers from the USA Hockey National Team Development Program. His combination of size, speed, and developing confidence in his skill was intriguing. At 6-foot-3, he was more than comfortable engaging physically and hounding puck carriers. He lacks the dynamism of the top-end NTDP forwards, but in the second round, the Notre Dame commit is solid value.
The Finnish crop of prospects wasn’t particularly strong this year, but many had high hopes for Jesse Nurmi. The production was certainly there throughout the year at the Finnish junior level, but it often came because he played with high energy, outplaying the tools at his disposal. Numi’s skating improved throughout the year, but it still never became a strength in his game. He takes good routes on the forecheck and can poke pucks free from defenders. The young Finn doesn’t engage physically very often.
New York selected 20-year-old Justin Gill after his offensive breakout in the QMJHL. Playing on a powerhouse Sherbrooke squad, Gill’s point totals exploded while playing alongside some of the best players on the team. The Islanders are banking on Gill being a late bloomer who can play a similar complementary role at the next level. His tools are fairly average across the board, which has allowed him to be a very successful junior player, but he will have some work to do as a pro.
The Isles are known for playing a suffocating style of hockey, and Zachary Schulz fits that mold. He doesn’t bring much skill or offensive creativity, but he is an effective player in his own end. Schulz is an impassioned defender who puts his all into every shift, which made him successful thus far.
Aside from having one of the best names in the draft, Dennis Good Bogg was one of the more inconsistent defenders among last year’s draft class. He flashed intriguing potential on a few shifts, making a nice pass or throwing a booming hit before reverting to a player who was behind the play and chasing puck carriers rather than defending them. The Islanders opted for size and the flash of a few big hits with their final pick.
Strengths
The Islanders' pipeline is underwhelming, to say the least, but they have a few wingers that could be very solid NHLers. Newly drafted Danny Nelson had an excellent developmental trajectory throughout the year. He could fill a middle-six role at the next level, whether it's on the wing or at center. Dufour should find NHL minutes this year after showing that he was more than up to the task at the AHL level, and a year from now, we could be talking about Maggio in the same light.
Weaknesses
Since we can’t use ‘everywhere’ as their prospect pool’s weakness, center is where we will settle on. They traded Aatu Raty along with a first-round pick during last season for Bo Horvat, which left the club without a single center prospect that projects to make the NHL in any way at this point. Many times, center prospects wind up playing on the wing when they make it as pros, but even that seems like a long shot at this point.
Next Man Up: William Dufour, RW
With his blend of physicality and shooting talent, Dufour should fit right into the Islanders this upcoming season, as they will need injections of both. The former QMJHL star attacks downhill, driving to the net to make life difficult for defenders and goalies. He plays like a bulldog, constantly battling his way through traffic and earning his ice while possessing the requisite skill to score from those spots. After dominating junior hockey and showing he can be a legitimate impact player in the AHL, it’s time to see what Dufour can do against the best players in the world.
Prospect Depth Chart Notables
LW: Danny Nelson, Quinn Finley, Jesse Nurmi, Otto Koivula, Eetu Liukas, Daylan Kuefler
C: Reece Newkirk, Ruslan Iskhakov, Justin Gill
RW: William Dufour, Matthew Maggio, Alexander Ljungkrantz
LD: Samuel Bolduc, Calle Odelius, Isaiah George, Zachary Schulz
RD: Tomas Machu
G: Tristan Lennox, Henrik Tikkanen
For a deeper dive into the prospect pool with player rankings, check out the Yearbook, Prospects Unlimited and Future Watch print editions of The Hockey News.