2023-24 NHL Prospect Pool Overview: Tampa Bay Lightning

The Tampa Bay Lightning don't seem concerned with a depleted prospect pool after their recent playoff success. But Tony Ferrari examines what's in store with who they do have.

As the NHL off-season passes the mid-point of August, Tony Ferrari continues to analyze each team’s prospect pool, with the Tampa Bay Lightning next up.

In this series, Tony Ferrari digs into each team’s strengths and weaknesses, their latest draft class, where their positional depth chart stands, and who could be next in line for a shot at the NHL. Note that a player who no longer holds rookie eligibility in the NHL is considered graduated and no longer considered a prospect for the purposes of these exercises unless mentioned otherwise.

For the first time since before the pandemic, the Tampa Bay Lightning did not reach the Stanley Cup final, losing to the Toronto Maple Leafs in the first round of the playoffs. With two Stanley Cups and another finals appearance in their back pocket, the Lightning are perfectly OK with a prospect pool that lacks high-end impact players and the kind of depth that could help fill the lineup over the next few years.

After a bit of a tough season at the University of Minnesota-Duluth, Isaac Howard is transferring to Michigan State, where he will help that program continue to build. Howard is a very good sidekick on an offensive line, using his speed and dual-threat ability to be a playmaker or finisher. Howard’s offensive ability seemed stifled during his freshman year, but the change of scenery should help him get back to the game he was accustomed to playing.

Gabriel Fortier could play for the Lightning this upcoming season if injuries occur. He is a bottom-six defensive forward who can play on the penalty kill and play serviceable hockey lower in the lineup. The Lightning certainly won’t expect him to play important offensive minutes, but they could use him for depth.

The Lightning drafted Lucas Edmonds in his final year of eligibility. Despite being 21 years old on draft day, Edmonds had his name called in the third round and then proceeded to put up a decent AHL rookie year with 27 points in 49 games. He has insane hands and some excellent offensive skills, but there are some lapses in his game outside of the opposing zone that are big issues. His runway isn’t all that long because of his advanced age for a prospect, but he could conceivably find his way into the Tampa lineup at some point over the next couple of seasons.

Jack Thompson and Roman Schmidt are their best prospects on the back end. Thompson is a two-way defender with a very good shot, and he can get into dangerous shooting positions. His defensive game took big steps over the last couple of years as well. He lacks the dynamism to be a true impact player at the next level, but after a solid AHL rookie season, he should be a name to watch for the Lightning moving forward.

Schmidt is a big, hulking defender who plays well in his own end and has limited offensive upside. His willingness to bully opponents physically as a 6-foot-5 blueliner is terrifying for opposing attackers. He has the desire to put his opponent through the boards if they attempt to go outside on him on a zone entry, and he can absolutely destroy them in open ice if he catches them in his tracks. His puck skill will be the limiting factor in how far he can get because he plays a brand of hockey that coaches seem to love.

The Lightning are set in goal for years to come as Andrei Vasilevskiy is expected to hold down the crease for the foreseeable future, and he won’t be 30 until next summer. That said, Hugo Alnefelt is a solid prospect who has put some impressive performances together over the years. He seemed to hit his stride in the AHL last season, and Tampa would love to have a long-term answer at backup soon, preferably someone who can play 30 games and take some of the load off of Vasilevsky so he is fresh for what should be more long playoff runs.

Round 2, 37th overall - Ethan Gauthier, RW, Sherbrooke (QMJHL)

Round 4, 115th overall - Jayson Shaugabay, RW, Warroad (Minn-HS)

Round 6, 179th overall - Warren Clark, RD, Steinbach (MJHL)

Round 7, 193rd overall - Jack Harvey, C/W, Chicago (USHL)

Round 7, 211th overall - Ethan Hay, C/W, Flint (OHL)

The Lightning didn’t have much draft capital, with just one pick in the top 100 and no first-rounder. QMJHL winger Ethan Gauthier was their first selection as they were intrigued by his ability to play to his teammates' strengths and act as the connective tissue on a line. He isn’t a catalyst, but he can act as a bumper in transition and as a finisher in the offensive zone. Gauthier will throw some hits and battle hard along the boards to win pucks back.

Jayson Shaugabay has an intriguing upside. He is a wildly talented puckhandler and can dangle in a phone booth. His passing and vision are excellent, making passes many other players would never think of. The issue is that his mobility is a major concern, and he is a 5-foot-9 player that very evidently plays like a 5-foot-9 player. Shaugabay can get pushed around, and he doesn’t have the separation gear to pull away from opponents, which is concerning.

Sixth-round pick Warren Clark came as a bit of a surprise. The right-shot defender is committed to St. Cloud State net season, and after solid years with the Chatham Maroons of the GOJHL and the Steinbach Pistons of the MJHL over the last two years, he found his way into draft conversations as a late-round swing. He is an incredibly raw talent who will need to take as much time in college as possible to develop, but he shows some traits of being a solid defensive blueliner with decent breakout ability.

The Lightning took an overage prospect in 20-year-old Jack Harvey in Round 7. In open ice, Harvey is a very good player who can maneuver in and out of space, deke defenders and set up some exciting plays. His game along the boards and his lack of physical strength are evident in just about every game, though.

Flint Firebirds forward Ethan Hay is a defense-first center who lacks upside but has a projectable frame. His tools are all average at best, but he understands the nuances of the defensive game, from tying up an opponent's stick, filling in for a defender chasing the puck behind the net or breaking up a cycle in the defensive zone. The offensive side of the game is underwhelming, but a defensive specialist with penalty-kill abilities could be there with some development.

It would be almost silly to say that any specific area of the Lightning's prospect pipeline is strong, but they do have a few wingers who project to be middle-six NHL forwards. Howard is the cream of the crop with his ability to play with star players and keep up with their offensive thinking. Gauthier is a physical winger who can connect plays and act as a facilitator when needed. Fortier, Edmonds, and even deeper prospects such as Maxim Groshev or Niko Huuhtanen have a path toward an NHL role if things break right.

The Lightning have a player or two at just about every position that could be NHLers, but the center pipeline is dry. Jack Finley, Dylan Duke and Gage Goncalves are all players who will likely move to the wing if they make it to the NHL or have long AHL careers. It’s concerning that they have no next man up in the pipeline if they lose someone down the middle. It should be something they look to correct, but they are also in the competitive window, so they’ll likely trade any draft capital they have over the next few years.

Oh boy. This was a tough one because most teams have a top prospect that can join their squad and make an impact of some sort. But Fortier is more of a replacement-level fill-in for the bottom six. He can play steady and harmless minutes on the third or fourth line. He proved that he’s capable of playing a defensive role at the AHL level, and the NHL could be his next test.

LW: Isaac Howard, Gabriel Fortier, Jaydon Dureau

C: Jack Finley, Dylan Duke, Jack Harvey, Gage Goncalves

RW: Ethan Gauthier, Lucas Edmonds, Maxim Groshev, Niko Huuhtanen

LD: Declan Carlile, Alex Gagne, Daniil Pylenkov

RD: Jack Thompson, Roman Schmidt, Warren Clark, Eamon Powell

G: Hugo Alnefelt, Nick Malik

For a deeper dive into the prospect pool with player rankings, check out the Yearbook, Prospects Unlimited, and Future Watch editions of the Hockey News print edition.