BetMGM Sportsbook has had Seattle Kraken rookie Matty Beniers being the favorite to win the NHL's Calder Trophy since the start. Who are the dark horses?
With the NHL season entering the second half, it’s a good time to see where we’re at in the betting markets. A lot has changed since the puck first dropped in early October.
Hockey is challenging to bet on due to its inherent randomness. It’s a sport played on ice with boots with sharp blades attached underneath while blasting a piece of vulcanized rubber that can travel upwards of 100 m.p.h. with sticks made of carbon fiber. The puck can bounce in all sorts of ways, injuries and fatigue are common, and year-to-year production can depend on luck.
Here are your betting favourites, along with some insights from BetMGM Sportsbook and some dark horse picks. Ticket% refers to the percentage of all bets placed on a particular player, Handle% means the percentage of all money bet on a certain player and biggest liability refers to the player who has been bet on the most in terms of total money.
Betting odds and numbers are as of Jan. 19, 2023.
Calder Trophy
Highest Ticket%: Matty Beniers, 30.0 percent
Highest Handle%: Matty Beniers, 71.2 percent
Biggest Liabilities: Matty Beniers
Odds Leaders: Matty Beniers -145, Mason McTavish +450, Pyotr Kochetkov +900
Opening Odds Leaders: Matty Beniers +400, Owen Power +550, Mason McTavish +650
The Calder is Beniers’ to lose. He’s the No. 1 center on a team that will very likely earn their first-ever playoff berth, and that’s huge for a new franchise. He’s on pace for a 30-30 season and gets tons of playing time, which is one of the biggest factors in winning rookie of the year. There’s a ton of talent in this season’s rookie class, but the oddsmakers had it right this time, with Beniers leading the entire way. Just last week, Beniers was +150, and now, he’s the favorite – not to mention the cover athlete for The Hockey News' rookie issue.
It’s interesting to note that Logan Thompson (+1000) was at one point a very popular pick, representing almost 20 percent of the ticket and over 10 percent of the handle. He’s currently at just 16.1 percent of the ticket and 7.1 percent of the handle, and his case for the Calder has really faded over the past few weeks. Since starting 12-4-0 in the first two months, he’s 6-8-1 since, and it’s been mentioned before how Bruce Cassidy’s system makes their goalie’s job a lot easier. Alec Martinez is one of the league’s best shot blockers, if not the best, and Thompson reaped a lot of benefits playing behind him.
Instead, Kochetkov has emerged as the best rookie goalie, who went from off the board to open the season to having the third-highest odds current. However, the return of Frederik Andersen meant Kochetkov was returned to AHL Charlotte, and while it’s definitely not the last we’ve seen of Kochetkov, not playing with the parent club obviously hurts his chances.
McTavish has been building a lot of steam, and honestly, he looks better than Trevor Zegras some nights. They play vastly different games, but both produce points. Over the past 19 games, McTavish has scored 14 points with 51 shots on goal. McTavish may have the second-highest odds, but it will take a monumental effort in the second half to unseat Beniers.
There is a third goalie to consider, however, and that’s all-star Stuart Skinner (+3000). He plays behind the world’s best player, there will be plenty of chances to win the weak Pacific, Evander Kane has returned to the lineup and the Oilers are expected to make moves before the trade deadline. He’s essentially usurped Jack Campbell for the starting job – despite Campbell’s strong play recently – and if not, he’s on a 50-50 timeshare at the very worst. If the Oilers can put together some winning streaks, Skinner has a chance to be the second-best in this rookie class.