2023 Mid-Season Vezina Trophy Odds: Linus Ullmark Leads the Way

BetMGM Sportsbook has Boston Bruins goalie Linus Ullmark as the favorite to win the Vezina Trophy. Can Ilya Sorokin or Connor Hellebuyck overtake him?

With the NHL season entering the second half, it’s a good time to see where we’re at in the betting markets. A lot has changed since the puck first dropped in early October.

Hockey is challenging to bet on due to its inherent randomness. It’s a sport played on ice with boots with sharp blades attached underneath while blasting a piece of vulcanized rubber that can travel upwards of 100 m.p.h. with sticks made of carbon fiber. The puck can bounce in all sorts of ways, injuries and fatigue are common, and year-to-year production can depend on luck.

Here are your betting favourites, along with some insights from BetMGM Sportsbook and some dark horse picks. Ticket% refers to the percentage of all bets placed on a particular player, Handle% means the percentage of all money bet on a certain player and biggest liability refers to the player who has been bet on the most in terms of total money.

Betting odds and numbers are as of Jan. 12, 2023. Please gamble responsibly.

Highest Ticket%: Linus Ullmark, 19.5 percent

Highest Handle%: Linus Ullmark, 32.7 percent

Biggest Liabilities: Linus Ullmark

Odds Leaders: Linus Ullmark +140, Ilya Sorokin +325, Connor Hellebuyck +350

Opening Odds Leaders: Igor Shesterkin +250, Andrei Vasilevskiy +550, Ilya Sorokin +800

No question Ullmark has been the league’s best goalie this season. His stat line is utterly ridiculous, with just two regulation losses in 28 starts this season with a sub-2.00 GAA. You could argue the Bruins play really well in front of him, but bad goalies on good teams usually get exposed after a certain period of time, and Ullmark has no shown no signs of faltering all season.

But here’s the case against Ullmark, and it’s a big one: playing time. The Bruins have worked Jeremy Swayman back into the rotation after a tough start to the season. Since mid-December, they’ve operated on a 50/50 timeshare. Part of it is to keep both goalies fresh, but also, part of it may be load management for Ullmark, who has never been the clear-cut No. 1 in his career.

Goalie workloads have gotten lighter in recent years, and the unspoken minimum is about 50-55 starts over an 82-game season to be considered for the Vezina. Ullmark has started 28 games this season, and the Bruins have 40 games remaining.

If we factor in playing time, Hellebuyck seems like a really good dark horse bet. His workload will likely be way bigger than Ullmark’s, not to mention he faces more shots on a nightly basis, and the Jets lead the Western Conference. So suppose we project Hellebuyck to play about 10 more games than Ullmark by the end of the season. In that case, there’s a chance Hellebuyck will have earned more wins and definitely have made more saves.

A similar case could be made for Sorokin, and based on talent alone, he might be the best goalie in the league. But the Isles’ play isn’t nearly as consistent as the Jets or Bruins. He’ll finish top-five on the Vezina ballot, but his chances of winning are fairly slim. Sorokin finished sixth in Vezina voting last season, and it will be an annual theme with him going forward.

Behind Ullmark, Jake Oettinger is getting a lot of attention, and he’s the popular dark horse bet. He’s sitting second in Ticket% (11.1 percent) and Handle% (20.8 percent). The Stars are an excellent team sitting third in the Western Conference and are tied for the best goal differential in the West at plus-33. Like Hellebuyck and Sorokin, it’ll be challenging for Oettinger to unseat Ullmark.

Only one goalie who was off the board at the beginning of the season that has attracted some bets is Pyotr Kochetkov, currently at +2000. But the return of Frederik Andersen led to Carolina reassigning Kochetkov to AHL Charlotte. As Carolina’s only goalie signed for next season (so far), Kochetkov could be a popular dark horse bet next season.