Is the American Thanksgiving theory holding up so far this year in the NHL playoff race? Carol Schram finds out and looks at the playoff odds.
The Edmonton Oilers’ resurgence has dominated the headlines. But look a little closer at the NHL standings as we hit the all-star break, and they’re actually not all that different from what we were seeing at American Thanksgiving.
When I took stock in late November, teams were jammed up pretty tightly, especially in the East. That had me wondering if we’d see more than the usual three or so teams move in and out of playoff spots before the end of the year.
So far, the answer is no.
Edmonton, of course, has been on an absolute heater, with their 24-3-0 record leading the league in both real points (48) and points percentage (.889) since U.S. Thanksgiving. That’s a 145-point pace over a full season, 10 points better than the Boston Bruins’ record-setting 135-point campaign from last year.
The Oilers haven’t just made up the 10-point chasm to reach a wild-card spot — they’ve climbed all the way into third place in the Pacific and are now five points clear of the playoff bar.
As the Oilers prepare to go for their record-tying 17th-straight win next Tuesday — in Vegas, of all places — moneypuck.com now gives the Oilers a 98.8 percent chance of making the playoffs. That’s up from 37.6 percent at Thanksgiving break.
Of course, the Los Angeles Kings have suffered the biggest drop in the West. They rank 25th since Thanksgiving with a record of 12-12-7 and 31 points for a .500 points percentage. But after their terrible swoon, the Kings did pick up three of a possible four points in their last two games before the all-star break, so they’re still clinging to the first wild-card spot.
Los Angeles can still salvage its season if this turnaround continues after the break. Moneypuck.com lists the team's current playoff odds at 88.1 percent.
So, if L.A. is still in, who’s out?
The answer is the Seattle Kraken. They held the second wild-card spot at Thanksgiving. But after a 2-0 shutout loss in San Jose on Tuesday, the Kraken are now two points shy of a wild-card berth. Despite a decent record of 13-11-5 since Thanksgiving, Seattle’s playoff odds have slipped from 55.2 percent down to today’s 42.9 percent.
Before leaving the West, it’s also worth giving a shoutout to the Vancouver Canucks and Winnipeg Jets. By points percentage, they have the second- and third-best records in the league since U.S. Thanksgiving, behind the Oilers and, by that metric, have both climbed into first place in their divisions.
For now, Vancouver is relatively comfortable. But Winnipeg is in a dogfight with the Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars, who both have more points logged but have also played two more games. Expect a photo finish in the Central from these three heavy hitters.
In the East, there has also been just one change among the playoff teams since Nov. 23. The Washington Capitals are out, and the Philadelphia Flyers are in.
It seems like a lifetime ago that Spencer Carbery’s coaching tenure with the Caps began with a 10-4-2 start, which was good for second place in the Metropolitan Division. But Washington has gone 12-14-5 in its last 31 games, 27th in the league since U.S. Thanksgiving. Even when they were winning, MoneyPuck ranked the Capitals' playoff odds at a slim 27.9 percent. Now seven points out of a wild-card spot and five behind Philadelphia for third in the Metro, they’re at just 2.3 percent.
At U.S. Thanksgiving, the Flyers were just below the wild-card bar, tied in points but with one more game played than the Red Wings. Since then, Philadelphia has gone 15-11-5 for 35 points and climbed into third place in the Metropolitan Division. Detroit is actually two points better, at 17-12-3, but is still a wild-card team in the highly competitive Atlantic.
The Flyers have recently hit the skids, losing five straight heading into the break. MoneyPuck bumped up their playoff chances from 35.8 percent to 61.1 percent since November, but rookie netminder Sam Ersson is going to have to stand tall under a heavy workload in order to get them there. And rookie GM Danny Briere may yet elect to go the conservative route and sell off assets at the trade deadline to continue his rebuild.
As for the Red Wings, they’re the lucky recipients of the Alex Lyon glow-up this year. After propelling the Florida Panthers into the playoffs with his strong play last year, Lyon has gone 9-3-2 since returning from an upper-body injury just after Christmas. But Detroit’s hopes of getting back to the post-season for the first time since 2016 are still dimmer than Philadelphia’s. They've gone from 34.3 percent to, now, 50.3 percent.
With the March 8 NHL trade deadline getting closer by the day, the already hot playoff race will only heat up.