Are the Ottawa Senators Truly Done Their Rebuild?

The last time the Ottawa Senators rebuilt the squad, some surprise playoff appearances sped it up. What should they remember as they end this current rebuild?

Ottawa Senators fans have wanted off the rollercoaster of inconsistency for over a decade. Perhaps the only consistency surrounding the team is their inconsistency. 

That’s true for this season with a rotation of promising and disappointing streaks. It’s also true after years of missing the playoffs and first-round appearances between the 2007 Stanley Cup final and 2017 when they nearly made it back. Even on Saturday night against the Seattle Kraken, Tim Stutzle scored a hat trick, and Ottawa still lost 8-4.

The Senators started a rebuild in 2011, but it ended early thanks to some surprise runs. But as Ottawa comes out of another rebuild and struggles with on-and-off results, some lessons from the last time around can help them become stronger contenders in the future.

After several seasons spent in a rebuild, this was going to be Ottawa’s year. A strong young lineup sees many of their previous draft picks at the NHL level, led by captain Brady Tkachuk. Sens GM Pierre Dorion also had a busy off-season, bringing in Claude Giroux, Alex DeBrincat and Cam Talbot. 

After losing their first two games of the season, the young squad bounced back to win four in a row, but they then lost the next seven. November was a rough month, losing 10 of their 14 games. Cries for a coaching change surrounded the Senators throughout the early season, with “Fire D.J.” chants on home ice. 

December looked a little better, recording eight wins in 14 games but still delivering under expectations. With every loss, coach D.J. Smith’s hot seat heats up, mainly by fans and analysts. And with every win, he quiets the doubters. He’s the second-longest person to hold Ottawa’s coaching duties. 

The Sens have been playing a smidge better as of late, winning four of their last six games and currently sitting at .500. Their power play’s currently third in the league at 28.1 percent, while their penalty kill sits in sixth at 82.2 percent. With the help of veteran Claude Giroux, the faceoff win percentage is also fifth, at 53.1 percent. 

Although these are impressive statistics, the Senators sit seventh in the Atlantic Division and eight points out of the second wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference. 

After qualifying for the playoffs every year from the 1996-97 season through to 2007-08, the inconsistency curse struck shortly after the team’s loss in the 2007 Stanley Cup final, their first and only visit to the fourth round. 

With key players such as Daniel Alfredsson, Chris Phillips and Mike Fisher, the team looked to remain on the right track despite their ’07 loss. The Senators made the playoffs in two of the next four years since ’07 but lost in the first round both times before finishing last in their then-Northeast Division in 2010-11. 

In 2011, GM Bryan Murray announced the start of a rebuild and earned a three-year contract to do so. 

He traded Fisher, Chris Kelly and Alexei Kovalev, among others. A busy leadup to the 2011 draft left Ottawa with three first-round picks, highlighting their commitment to a younger, faster team. 

The 2011 draft brought future stars Mika Zibanejad and Jean-Gabriel Pageau to the organization, who would both go on to be solid players for the Senators. Paul MacLean came in as the new coach, who went on to win the Jack Adams Award the following season. And trading Brian Elliott for Craig Anderson ended up working brilliantly for Ottawa.

Despite being in a rebuilding process, the Sens made the playoffs the following two seasons. They began trading picks again to speed it up, helping acquire Kyle Turris, Ben Bishop and Bobby Ryan. 

Maybe making the playoffs during a rebuild wasn’t what the team needed. It gave the impression the rebuild ended or was a short-term retool, which was far from true. And what’s better, quick short-term success or slow long-term success? 

But, taking things slow and waiting for the future can be challenging, and the players weren’t playing to lose. Instead, they thrived on their underdog “Pesky Sens” status. 

Although Ottawa missed the playoffs in 2013-14 and 2015-16, Andrew ‘Hamburglar’ Hammond led the Senators to a miracle late in the 2014-15 season, producing a 20-1-2 record to help the team clinch a playoff spot.

While the run was a memorable time for the team and fans, it didn’t change much long-term.

Fast-forward to 2017, after a heartbreaking double-OT game seven Eastern Conference final loss to the Penguins, it’s safe to say the Sens haven’t fully recovered since. Despite their playoff run, Ottawa was about to embark on a long, scorched-earth rebuilding process.  

The Senators have had some promising draft picks over the years: Thomas Chabot in 2015, Drake Batherson in 2017, Brady Tkachuk and Jacob Bernard-Docker in 2018, Shane Pinto in 2019 and Tim Stutzle and Jake Sanderson in 2020.

This was the year fans expected better results and meaningful games near the end of the season. Still, Ottawa may need another miracle boost to clinch a wild-card spot, with four teams above them on the outside looking in. Josh Norris has missed most of the season, and players such as Artem Zub, Erik Brannstrom and Mathieu Joseph have been in and out of the lineup with injuries. 

Even if the Sens tanked the rest of the season, there are worse teams way ahead of them in vying for a high draft pick. So, they’re stuck in that awkward middle position. And they may face salary cap issues in the next couple of seasons trying to extend DeBrincat, Pinto, Brannstrom and eventually Sanderson. 

So, do they keep pushing for the playoffs this season by making some competitive trades, or do they stay patient in the rebuilding mindset and look to the future? 

It may be too early to tell, but fans sure hope to cheer on a playoff-contending team soon. 

Attendance levels continue to rise at the Canadian Tire Centre after a league-low average that fell under 13,000 in the 2019-20 season. Their average attendance through 21 home games is almost 16,000 this season, with six games passing the 18,000 mark.

The possible development of a downtown arena at LeBreton Flats and eventual new ownership could also garner more attention to the team and put more pressure on moving out of the rebuild properly and effectively.