
The three-year deal between Anaheim and winger Ondrej Kase has potential to be a steal now with the 22-year-old earning a chance at a far bigger payday later.
Ondrej Kase was a curious case heading into the off-season.
Skating in the final season of his three-year entry-level deal, Kase put the capper on what has been a steady climb into the NHL ranks. Taken on a flyer with the 205th pick of the 2014 draft, Kase had navigated his way through the Czech League, into the AHL, onto the Anaheim roster and had himself a respectable breakout with a 20-goal, 38-point campaign. His individual scoring marks put him in the Ducks’ top five in both categories. As far as sophomore NHL campaigns go, Kase was impressive, too. He ranked 14th in scoring among second-year NHLers last season, and his numbers were commensurate with those posted in recent years by the likes of Bo Horvat, Anthony Mantha, Christian Dvorak and Anthony Beauvillier.
Given his production as he became a restricted free agent, Anaheim found themselves in the position of going one of two ways with Kase. The first would have been to go the Horvat or Dvorak route, which is to say hand the player a long-term deal with potential for big value down the road. The other, however, is the route the Ducks chose to go, handing Kase a short-term, prove-it contract in the form of a three-year, $7.8-million pact that gives both player and team the chance to benefit.
For Anaheim, the benefit stands to come in the form of Kase’s continued growth. Though he’s already made great strides — remarkable, really, considering he’s already the ninth-highest scoring seventh-round pick in the post-lockout era — there appears to be more under the surface, and the key to the Ducks unlocking that potential could come in something as simple as giving Kase the opportunity to play.
During his rookie campaign, a 53-game season in which he scored five goals and 15 points, Kase was sparingly used in Anaheim's bottom-six, skating less than a dozen minutes per game. And his sophomore season held much of the same despite the increased production, with Kase’s average ice time a shade under 14 minutes. But given some of the 22-year-old winger’s production rates, it sure seems as though he could become a sleeper candidate for a 25-goal, 50-point scorer in Anaheim as early as this season.
Among the 368 forwards who played at least 500 minutes at 5-on-5 last season, Kase’s rates of production were excellent. Per 60 minutes, he scored 1.28 goals, the ninth-best mark of the group, his company including Brock Boeser, James van Riemsdyk, Patrik Laine and Nathan MacKinnon. His point production, 2.18, was 48th-best among the 500-minute forwards, putting him in line with the likes of Teuvo Teravainen, Mark Scheifele, Phil Kessel and teammate Rickard Rakell. And the play- and chance-driving numbers were there, too. Again, at 5-on-5 and per 60 minutes, Kase ranked 28th in individual shots on target, 49th in individual shot attempts and 80th in individual scoring chances.
Every one of those numbers would seem to suggest that Kase, if given the opportunity to log heavier minutes, stands to improve his offensive totals, which would make his $2.6-million cap hit look like a tidy little deal for the Ducks. There is one thing that could prevent Kase from reaching greater attacking heights, however, and that’s a regression in shooting percentage.
During his rookie campaign, Kase’s rate of assists, shots, attempts and even scoring chances were somewhat similar to what we saw during his sophomore season. Where the two campaigns differ greatly, though, are in goal production, which is a result of a greatly increased shooting percentage. As a fresh-faced NHLer, Kase converted at 5.3 percent on 75 shots at five-a-side. And while he significantly upped his shot total to 126 last season, his shooting percentage nearly tripled, landing at 13.5 percent by season’s end. That said, even a slight dip in shooting percentage could be entirely mitigated by increased ice time. If Kase were to shoot at a similar rate next season and flirt with top-six minutes, he could still improve on this past season’s career-best totals.
And it’s in his own personal improvement where the benefit in the short-term deal lies for Kase. If he continues to grow his offensive totals, and if continues to get more ice time in Anaheim, he could be in line for a healthy raise in three seasons’ time. The opportunity should be there, too, with a chance for him to move up the lineup and earn more time on the power play and at even strength. And when it comes time for Kase to renegotiate, the Ducks will be in the perfect position to extend him at greater value. The contracts of Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, Andrew Cogliano and Carter Rowney will all be coming off the books the next time Kase becomes a restricted free agent, and if he’s made himself a fixture of the top six, re-signing a prime-aged winger would likely be a priority for Anaheim.
So, if his base statistics and underlying numbers from his sophomore season are any indication, his new three-year pact will bring great value to the Ducks now, and it stands to bring Kase a bigger payday with a greater role in the future.