As Alex Ovechkin Takes Aim at Gretzky, Auston Matthews Could One Day Beat Them Both
Alex Ovechkin is only 48 goals back from tying Gretzky's all-time goal-scoring record, but as Auston Matthews continues to light up the scoreboard, there is a chance he could one day pass them both.
If you’re hoping for your child to become an ultra-elite NHL goal-scorer, try aiming for a Sept. 17 date of birth.
Players born just after Sept. 15 do enjoy a competitive advantage since they’re among the oldest and most mature players in each draft class. But it's a remarkable coincidence that the two top scorers of this era, Alex Ovechkin and Auston Matthews, were born exactly 12 years apart.
As Ovechkin moves closer and closer to passing Wayne Gretzky and becoming the NHL's all-time top goal-scorer, he says there's plenty of room at the top.
Before his Washington Capitals hosted the Toronto Maple Leafs on March 20, Ovechkin said he'd love to see Matthews eclipse his own single-season personal best of 65 goals, set in 2007-08, which is tops in the salary-cap era.
"It's great," he said. "I'm happy for him, hope he gets it. Maybe 70, you never know. He's a special player, it's fun to watch."
Matthews has already hit 60 goals once, in 2021-22. And when his empty-net tally in the Leafs' 6-3 win over the Edmonton Oilers on Saturday pushed him to 58 for the year, he's on pace to finish the year at 69 goals and collect the third Rocket Richard Trophy of his eight-year career.
Now in his 19th NHL season, Ovechkin has nine goal-scoring titles to his name. And while it took him a while to get going this season, his six goals in four games heading into Sunday's matinee against the Winnipeg Jets got him to 24 this season — and 48 behind Gretzky.
At 38, with two years remaining on his current contract, he's got enough runway to get there.
If Ovechkin does break the record, how far will he push the new benchmark before he hangs up his skates? Gretzky added nearly 100 goals to Gordie Howe's previous mark of 801.
If Ovechkin wants to avoid getting knocked off the top of the mountain, he should boost his total as high as he possibly can, because Matthews is coming for the all-time record, too.
With 357 goals in 549 games, Matthews has scored at a rate of .650 goals per game through nearly eight full NHL seasons.
In Ovechkin's first eight years, he lit the lamp 371 times in 601 games, a rate of .617 goals per game.
Of course, the Russian machine never breaks. Ovechkin has been impressively durable throughout his career, especially for a player who hasn't been shy about throwing hits. His longest-ever injury absence was six games due to a shoulder injury in November of 2009.
At 26, Matthews has missed 56 games due to injuries, illness and that two-game suspension from the 2022 Heritage Classic game in Hamilton. Through his first eight years, Ovechkin missed only 19.
But Matthews' higher scoring rate has him very close to being on pace with Ovechkin. If he gets to 69 this year, he'll be at 368 total goals, just three back.
And Matthews has another important advantage working in his favor. He jumped straight into the NHL at age 19, right after he was drafted in 2016.
Ovechkin was selected first overall in 2004 — immediately before the league's year-long lockout. He was 20 when he played his first game.
Both players lost games due to the pandemic, and Ovechkin was limited to just 48 games in 2012-13, after that lockout. Since Matthews was also able to start scoring a full year earlier, that should give him a leg up in a potential record chase later in his career.
Look at it this way:
With 846 goals in 1,413 career NHL games heading into Sunday, Ovechkin's career average is .599 goals per game. That puts him in almost a dead heat with Gretzky, who finished his career at .601.
If he can maintain that pace, he'd catch Gretzky in another 80 games — before the end of next season.
Matthews' average of .650 is the fifth-best of all time — behind only Mike Bossy, Mario Lemieux, Cy Denneny and Cecil 'Babe' Dye. But those first two names remind us that long and healthy careers are far from guaranteed in the National Hockey League.
Matthews' scoring rate is also boosted by his youth. Decline is all but inevitable with age, so it's unlikely that he'll be able to maintain his current pace for his full career.
Through their first eight years, Matthews' scoring rate has been 5.3 percent higher than Ovechkin's was. If he can maintain that margin throughout his career, he'll clock in at .631 overall.
At that rate, he'd hit Gretzky's 894 in 1,417 games — just four more than where Ovechkin is at now.
If all goes well, that would be a little more than a decade away.
If Matthews continues on his current trajectory, he's in a great spot to pass both Gretzky and Ovechkin and retire as the greatest goal-scorer of all time.