{"time":1748379574445,"blocks":[{"id":"_E5xbCbuy-","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"Possible easier read https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Todljun3oFbGRy6vYqCO3Zs1ShqifoRFzqJ4SbbcA8E/edit?usp=drivesdk"}},{"id":"Cz6w3Uh6A5","type":"paragraph","data":{"text":"
2025 NHL DRAFT: TOP PROSPECTS FOR NEAR-TERM FANTASY HOCKEY POINTS IMPACT
For hockey pool enthusiasts, this report offers a revised draft list of prospects for the 2025 NHL Entry Draft, specifically tailored for fantasy hockey points-only impact within the next 3-4 years. The rankings and analysis prioritize players who demonstrated significant improvement throughout the 2024-2025 season, particularly in high-stakes competition such as playoffs and international tournaments. A key adjustment in this valuation is the elevation of elite offensive defensemen—those possessing point-production potential similar to elite forwards (excluding generational talents like Connor McDavid)—to reflect their significant fantasy impact. This report aims to identify prospects capable of outperforming their peers in point production within the crucial early to mid-career window.
I. INTRODUCTION: METHODOLOGY AND FOCUSThe foundation of this analysis rests on a multi-faceted approach, integrating statistical performance, scouting reports from reputable sources, historical draft analytics, and league equivalency factors. The primary objective is to project a player's ability to generate fantasy points (goals and assists) within a 3-to-4-year NHL window post-draft. This timeframe is critical for fantasy managers seeking relatively quick returns on their draft investments.Key factors influencing these rankings include:Offensive Upside: Raw scoring talent, playmaking ability, shot quality, hockey IQ, and power-play potential.
Recent Performance Trajectory: Emphasis is placed on players who demonstrated significant improvement during the 2024-2025 season, especially in the second half and during playoff or international competitions. This often indicates a player adapting and excelling against tougher opposition.
League Strength and Translation: Production in stronger feeder leagues (e.g., CHL, NCAA, top European professional leagues) is weighted more heavily, considering established NHL equivalency (NHLe) factors. The transition from junior or European pro leagues to the NHL can vary significantly.
Positional Value (Adjusted for Defensemen): Elite offensive defensemen with the potential to quarterback a power play and produce points at a rate comparable to top-tier forwards (e.g., Makar, Hughes) are valued highly, reflecting their substantial fantasy impact.
NHL ETA and Opportunity: A player's estimated time to reach the NHL and the likelihood of receiving offensive deployment are considered. Players on a faster track to impactful roles are favored.
Historical draft data provides context for success probabilities based on draft position. While high draft picks have a statistically greater chance of NHL success, this report also seeks to identify potential high-value selections in later rounds based on the specified criteria.
II. UNDERSTANDING FANTASY IMPACT, TIMELINES, AND PROBABILITIESPredicting NHL success, particularly within a defined 3-4 year window for fantasy points, is complex. Several analytical tools and historical trends provide a framework for these projections.A. General NHL Readiness and Development
Curves:Most prospects require a post-draft development period before making a consistent NHL impact. Forwards, particularly wingers, may sometimes transition more quickly than defensemen or centers, who often need more time to adapt to the NHL's pace and complexity. Players typically reach the NHL in their early 20s, meaning teams are often projecting 4-5 years out from the draft. However, for fantasy purposes within a 3-4 year window, we are looking for players who can accelerate this curve. Factors like physical maturity, hockey IQ, and the ability to adapt to higher levels of competition are crucial.
B. League Equivalencies (NHLe) and Their Utility/Limitations:
NHL Equivalency (NHLe) models attempt to standardize point production across various feeder leagues to project a player's potential NHL scoring output. For example, according to one model, a point in the KHL might translate to approximately 0.77 NHL points, while an OHL point might be closer to 0.14 NHL points. These models utilize historical data of players transitioning between leagues.
Utility: NHLe provides a valuable baseline for comparing prospects from different leagues (CHL, NCAA, USHL, European pro leagues like SHL, HockeyAllsvenskan, KHL). It helps contextualize raw scoring numbers.
Limitations: NHLe models are not perfect. They often don't account for factors like age within the league, role on the team (e.g., limited ice time for young players in European pro leagues), quality of teammates, or specific skill sets that might translate better or worse than pure point production suggests. Furthermore, NHLe typically projects to a player's prime, not necessarily their output within the initial 3-4 NHL seasons. The Prospect Cohort Success (PCS) model attempts to address some of these limitations by comparing players to historical cohorts with similar attributes (age, scoring, height) to estimate NHL likelihood and production.
C. Historical Success Rates by Draft Position and League:
Historical data reveals strong correlations between draft position and NHL success.First Round: Top-5 picks are generally strong bets to become NHLers. The probability of a first-round pick playing 100+ NHL games is high (around 70%), and scoring 100+ NHL points is also very probable. For example, the 1st overall pick has historically had approximately a 52.5% chance of reaching 500+ career points, while a pick around 18th overall has roughly an 18% chance of reaching that same milestone over their career.Later Rounds: Success rates drop significantly after the first round. For instance, second-round picks have a much lower chance of becoming high-impact scorers compared to first-rounders. Projecting NHL performance becomes substantially more challenging beyond the first two rounds for forwards and the first round for defensemen.
League of Origin:
CHL (OHL, WHL, QMJHL): A major feeder league. Forwards are generally drafted more frequently than defensemen. Playing a full season (60+ games) and being an offensive difference-maker in the first year of eligibility significantly increases draft probability.
NCAA: Produces a significant number of NHL draftees. The translation of points from junior leagues (like USHL, NTDP) to NCAA can vary, with NTDP (90%) and USHL (84%) having high translation rates to NCAA freshman performance. The NCAA path often allows for a longer development window.
Europe (SHL, HockeyAllsvenskan, KHL, etc.): Playing in European professional leagues against men can be a strong indicator of NHL readiness, even if raw point totals are lower due to role and ice time. Players from leagues like the SHL and KHL have higher NHLe factors than North American junior leagues.
USHL: Has a strong translation rate to NCAA success and produces a notable number of NHL draft picks.
For this report, a player's \"% Chance of Fantasy Impact (3-4 Years)\" is an estimation considering these historical probabilities, their individual skill set, recent performance trajectory (especially in playoffs or against tougher competition), and their specific league context. For picks later in the first round (like 18th or 26th) or early second round (34th), identifying a player who can become a consistent 50-60 point contributor within 3-4 years would be a significant win, outperforming typical expectations for those draft slots.
III. TOP 40 PROSPECT PROFILES (2025 NHL DRAFT - FANTASY POINTS FOCUS)
The following profiles detail prospects for the 2025 NHL Draft, emphasizing their projected fantasy hockey points-only impact within the next 3-4 years. Player statistics for 2023-24 and 2024-25 are included, with playoff performance highlighted where available and indicative of improvement against tougher competition.Consolidated Ranking Methodology: The \"Cons. Rank\" is an aggregation from various public scouting services, including NHL Central Scouting (NA or EU specific), EliteProspects (EP), TSN (Bob McKenzie, Craig Button), The Hockey News (THN - Ferrari, Kennedy), McKeen's Hockey, FloHockey (Chris Peters), FCHockey, DailyFaceoff, Sportsnet (Cosentino, Bukala), Recruit Scouting, DobberProspects, and SMAHT Scouting. NHL.com's consolidated rankings are also heavily referenced.
* Matthew Schaefer
Position: DTeam (League): Erie Otters (OHL)Size: 6'2\" (188 cm), 183 lbs (83 kg)Shoots: LDOB: Sep 05, 20072023-24 Stats (OHL): 56 GP, 3 G, 14 A, 17 Pts, 16 PIM (Playoffs: 6 GP, 0 G, 3 A, 3 Pts, 2 PIM)2024-25 Stats (OHL): 17 GP, 7 G, 15 A, 22 Pts, 8 PIM (Injured at World Juniors, missed significant time)
NHL ETA: 2-3 Years% Chance of Fantasy Impact (3-4 Yrs): 90%Fantasy Pt Ceiling (Prime): 75-85 PtsFantasy Pt Floor (Prime): 45-55 PtsNHL Comparable (Fantasy Style): Cale Makar / Quinn Hughes (elite offensive production from D, PP QB)
Cons. Rank: 1Write-up: Schaefer is the consensus top prospect, even with an injury-shortened draft year. His skating is elite and dynamic in all directions, complemented by exceptional puck skills and offensive instincts. He controls the game's tempo, quarterbacks a power play effectively, and is a massive threat off the rush. Before his World Juniors injury (broken clavicle), he was producing at over a point-per-game pace in the OHL. His top-tier vision and puck distribution make him a future power-play anchor. Defensively, he's engaged, using his skating and active stick to mitigate risks, though his aggressive offensive style can occasionally lead to chances against. Given the adjusted valuation for elite offensive defensemen, Schaefer's potential to be a 70-80+ point player from the blueline places him firmly at the top. His recovery from injury will be key, but the raw talent is undeniable for immediate high-end fantasy impact within 3-4 years.
* Michael Misa
Position: C/LWTeam (League): Saginaw Spirit (OHL)Size: 6'1\" (185 cm), 185 lbs (84 kg)Shoots: LDOB: Feb 16, 20072023-24 Stats (OHL): 67 GP, 29 G, 46 A, 75 Pts, 26 PIM (Playoffs: 17 GP, 4 G, 7 A, 11 Pts, 2 PIM)2024-25 Stats (OHL): 65 GP, 62 G, 72 A, 134 Pts, 45 PIM (Playoffs: 4 GP, 2 G, 1 A, 3 Pts, 0 PIM - Injured)
NHL ETA: 1-2 Years% Chance of Fantasy Impact (3-4 Yrs): 95%Fantasy Pt Ceiling (Prime): 95-105 PtsFantasy Pt Floor (Prime): 65-75 PtsNHL Comparable (Fantasy Style): Steven Stamkos / John Tavares (elite goal-scorer and playmaker, PP threat)
Cons. Rank: 2Write-up: Misa, granted exceptional status into the OHL, has been a dominant offensive force, leading the CHL in scoring with 134 points in his draft year. His hockey IQ is exceptional, and he combines elite skating, vision, and puck skills to create and finish plays at an elite level. He's a dual-threat as a scorer (62 goals) and playmaker (72 assists), making him incredibly difficult to defend. Misa's transition game is lethal, and he excels on the power play. His playoff performance was cut short by injury, but his regular season was historically significant, drawing comparisons to Patrick Kane's draft-year OHL output. He's considered NHL-ready in terms of skill and hockey sense, needing only to add some physical strength. Misa is a virtual lock for high-end fantasy production very early in his career.
* James Hagens
Position: CTeam (League): Boston College (NCAA)Size: 5'11\" (180 cm), 176 lbs (80 kg)Shoots: LDOB: Nov 03, 20062023-24 Stats (USNTDP/USHL): USNTDP: 58 GP, 39 G, 63 A, 102 Pts. USHL: 26 GP, 18 G, 29 A, 47 Pts.2024-25 Stats (NCAA): 37 GP, 11 G, 26 A, 37 Pts, 24 PIM (Strong WJC performance)
NHL ETA: 2 Years% Chance of Fantasy Impact (3-4 Yrs): 85%Fantasy Pt Ceiling (Prime): 80-90 PtsFantasy Pt Floor (Prime): 50-60 PtsNHL Comparable (Fantasy Style): Clayton Keller (dynamic playmaker, high hockey IQ.
Cons. Rank: 3Write-up: Hagens entered the season as a consensus top pick and lived up to the hype with a point-per-game freshman season at Boston College and a standout World Juniors performance. His offensive toolkit is elite, characterized by exceptional vision, playmaking, and hockey IQ. He's always in motion, attacking with purpose and creativity. While he's more of a pass-first player, sometimes to a fault, his ability to generate high-danger chances for linemates is undeniable. He needs to add strength and potentially shoot more, but his offensive ceiling is immense. Playing against older, stronger competition in the NCAA and excelling internationally (WJC Gold) bodes well for a relatively quick transition to NHL point production. Another year in the NCAA is likely before turning pro.
* Porter Martone
Position: RWTeam (League): Brampton Steelheads (OHL)Size: 6'3\" (191 cm), 207 lbs (94 kg)Shoots: RDOB: Oct 26, 20062023-24 Stats (OHL): 60 GP, 33 G, 38 A, 71 Pts, 63 PIM (Playoffs: 5 GP, 1 G, 5 A, 6 Pts, 10 PIM)2024-25 Stats (OHL): 57 GP, 37 G, 61 A, 98 Pts, 74 PIM (Playoffs: 6 GP, 4 G, 5 A, 9 Pts, 10 PIM)
NHL ETA: 2-3 Years% Chance of Fantasy Impact (3-4 Yrs): 80%Fantasy Pt Ceiling (Prime): 70-80 PtsFantasy Pt Floor (Prime): 40-50 PtsNHL Comparable (Fantasy Style): Brady Tkachuk / Corey Perry (power forward with skill, net-front presence)
Cons. Rank: 4Write-up: Martone is the quintessential power forward with a high skill level. He uses his large frame (6'3\", 208 lbs) effectively to protect the puck, win battles, and drive to the net. He possesses a lethal shot, particularly his quick release in high-danger areas, and excellent hands for a big man. Martone's production in the OHL has been consistently strong, and he captained Brampton in his draft year, showcasing leadership. While his skating isn't elite, it's solid for his size, and his hockey IQ allows him to be in the right positions. He was a dominant force in the OHL playoffs, leading Brampton with 9 points in 6 games, demonstrating his ability to elevate in important games. He projects as a top-six winger who can provide goals, assists, and a physical presence.
* Anton Frondell
Position: C/WTeam (League): Djurgårdens IF (HockeyAllsvenskan)Size: 6'1\" (184 cm), 198 lbs (89 kg)Shoots: LDOB: May 07, 20072023-24 Stats (HockeyAllsvenskan/J20): HA: 9 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 1 Pt, 0 PIM. J20: 29 GP, 18 G, 21 A, 39 Pts, 16 PIM.2024-25 Stats (HockeyAllsvenskan): 29 GP, 11 G, 14 A, 25 Pts, 16 PIM (Playoffs: 16 GP, 3 G, 4 A, 7 Pts, 4 PIM)
NHL ETA: 2-3 Years% Chance of Fantasy Impact (3-4 Yrs): 80%Fantasy Pt Ceiling (Prime): 70-80 PtsFantasy Pt Floor (Prime): 40-50 PtsNHL Comparable (Fantasy Style): Zach Hyman / Leo Carlsson (strong two-way forward with excellent shot and offensive instincts)
Cons. Rank: 5Write-up: Frondell is a highly intelligent and skilled forward who has excelled against men in Sweden's HockeyAllsvenskan. His shot is arguably one of the best in the draft, particularly his one-timer from the flank, making him a significant power-play threat. He reads the game exceptionally well, finds soft spots in coverage, and possesses strong puck-protection skills. After a slower start, Frondell showed significant improvement in the second half of the Allsvenskan season and was productive in the playoffs, helping Djurgårdens earn promotion to the SHL. His ability to play both center and wing adds to his versatility. He projects as a top-six forward who can contribute consistently.
* Caleb Desnoyers
Position: CTeam (League): Moncton Wildcats (QMJHL)Size: 6'2\" (188 cm), 178 lbs (78 kg)Shoots: LDOB: Apr 11, 20072023-24 Stats (QMJHL): 60 GP, 20 G, 36 A, 56 Pts, 26 PIM (Playoffs: 4 GP, 1 G, 1 A, 2 Pts, 2 PIM)2024-25 Stats (QMJHL): 56 GP, 35 G, 49 A, 84 Pts, 39 PIM (Playoffs: 14 GP, 9 G, 16 A, 25 Pts, 8 PIM)
NHL ETA: 2-3 Years% Chance of Fantasy Impact (3-4 Yrs): 75%Fantasy Pt Ceiling (Prime): 65-75 PtsFantasy Pt Floor (Prime): 40-50 PtsNHL Comparable (Fantasy Style): Sean Couturier (strong two-way center with good offensive instincts)
Cons. Rank: 7Write-up: Desnoyers is a complete, 200-foot center who significantly elevated his game in the 2024-25 season, particularly in the QMJHL playoffs where he was a dominant force, leading all scorers. He possesses high-end hockey IQ, excellent vision, and deft passing skills, consistently finding teammates in dangerous scoring areas. While not the flashiest player, his attention to detail, underrated creativity, and strong skating make him highly effective. He's responsible defensively and strong on faceoffs. His late-season surge and playoff dominance against tougher competition indicate a player on a steep upward trajectory, making him a strong candidate for fantasy impact.
* Victor Eklund
Position: LWTeam (League): Djurgårdens IF (HockeyAllsvenskan)Size: 5'11\" (181 cm), 161 lbs (73 kg)Shoots: RDOB: Oct 03, 20062023-24 Stats (HockeyAllsvenskan/J20): HA: 15 GP, 1 G, 3 A, 4 Pts, 6 PIM. J20: 30 GP, 7 G, 18 A, 25 Pts, 26 PIM. (Playoffs HA: 15 GP, 2 G, 4 A, 6 Pts, 6 PIM)2024-25 Stats (HockeyAllsvenskan): 42 GP, 19 G, 12 A, 31 Pts, 37 PIM (Playoffs: 16 GP, 2 G, 5 A, 7 Pts, 8 PIM)
NHL ETA: 2-3 Years% Chance of Fantasy Impact (3-4 Yrs): 75%Fantasy Pt Ceiling (Prime): 65-75 PtsFantasy Pt Floor (Prime): 35-45 PtsNHL Comparable (Fantasy Style): William Eklund (.dynamic, skilled winger with good vision)
Cons. Rank: 8Write-up: Eklund is a dynamic and tenacious winger with high-end offensive tools. He possesses excellent skating, particularly his edgework, making him elusive in tight spaces. His vision is among the best in the class, and he has the skill to execute difficult passes and create scoring chances. Eklund boasts a quick, accurate shot and isn't afraid to play in high-traffic areas despite his smaller stature. He performed well in HockeyAllsvenskan against men, showcasing his ability to score and make plays, and was instrumental in Djurgårdens' promotion to the SHL. His offensive upside and compete level make him a strong fantasy prospect.
* Roger McQueen
Position: C/FTeam (League): Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL)Size: 6'5\" (195 cm), 197 lbs (87 kg)Shoots: RDOB: Oct 02, 20062023-24 Stats (WHL): 53 GP, 21 G, 30 A, 51 Pts, 50 PIM (Playoffs: 4 GP, 4 G, 1 A, 5 Pts, 8 PIM)2024-25 Stats (WHL): 17 GP, 10 G, 10 A, 20 Pts, 40 PIM (Playoffs: 3 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 1 Pt, 6 PIM - Injury impacted season)
NHL ETA: 3-4 Years% Chance of Fantasy Impact (3-4 Yrs): 65% (Injury risk lowers this slightly)Fantasy Pt Ceiling (Prime): 70-80 PtsFantasy Pt Floor (Prime): 30-40 PtsNHL Comparable (Fantasy Style): Quinton Byfield / Gabriel Vilardi (big, skilled center with offensive upside)
Cons. Rank: 6Write-up: McQueen is a tantalizing prospect due to his rare combination of size (6'5\"), skill, and skating ability. When healthy, he has shown flashes of being a dominant top-line center, capable of driving play, protecting the puck with ease, and generating offense both off the rush and in sustained zone pressure. He possesses soft hands for his size and a heavy shot. However, his draft year was significantly impacted by injuries, including a back injury and a lower-body injury that caused him to miss substantial time. While he was productive when he played (20 points in 17 WHL games), the injury history is a major red flag and makes him a high-risk, high-reward pick. His medical evaluation at the combine will be crucial. If he can stay healthy, his upside is immense."}}],"version":"2.31.0-rc.7"}

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