The Columbus Blue Jackets acquired Ivan Provorov and reportedly lined up Mike Babcock as their next coach, but they must do much more to be a playoff contender, writes Adam Proteau.
It appears the Columbus Blue Jackets have found their new coach – former Anaheim/Detroit/Toronto bench boss Mike Babcock – and there is going to be a serious culture change in Ohio, starting straight away this coming season. And we saw the Jackets begin the off-season with a bang Tuesday, picking up former Flyers cornerstone defenseman Ivan Provorov in a three-way trade with the Los Angeles Kings and Philadelphia.
But even then, Babcock is not getting a team that will be a Stanley Cup front-runner right away. He is not even getting a group of players who, in the highly competitive Metropolitan Division, are a lock to be a playoff squad. And that is still true after the Provorov transaction.
Acquiring Provorov brings the Jackets' cap space to $12.1 million (per CapFriendly), with 19 players under contract for the 2023-24 campaign. They can still make at least one or two additional notable moves on the trade and/or free-agent front. In the Provorov trade, Blue Jackets GM Jarmo Kekalainen parted with a first-round draft pick – not Columbus’ first-rounder this year, but the 2023 first-rounder originally belonging to the Kings – as well as the Blue Jackets’ second-round pick in either 2024 or 2025.
So, right away this off-season, we’re seeing Kekalainen trading away draft picks in an attempt to make Columbus a more experienced, more talented group than the one that finished the 2022-23 campaign. That makes sense, as the Jackets don’t need a slew of young players as much as they need veteran know-how.
To that end, we believe Babcock is coming into Columbus with some degree of input on what Kekalainen does this off-season. What will that change look like?
Well, although Kekalainen has added a handful of young prospects and draft picks – including an extra third-rounder (from Calgary) and a fourth-rounder (from Winnipeg) in this year’s draft – there’s likely to be an ongoing infusion of veteran players whose mission is to push the Jackets into the post-season next year.
Even after the Provorov deal, Columbus needs more help on defense. There’s not an abundance of size on Columbus’ blueline, and though the Blue Jackets will get a boost from Provorov and the return to action of star D-man Zach Werenski (who played only 13 games this past season before suffering a season-ending injury), Columbus could use a rugged net-front presence to make life easier on No. 1 goalie Elvis Merzlikins. Former Blue Jackets defenseman Vladislav Gavrikov likely won't return to Columbus as the Kings attempt to free space to re-sign him. If it somehow doesn't work out in LA, he wouldn’t come cheaply, but his comfort with the Blue Jackets may be a deciding factor in his decision as a UFA.
Up front, meanwhile, Columbus doesn’t have a franchise cornerstone in their No. 1 center position. Veteran Boone Jenner is a valuable component of the team, but he’s just not an upper-tier, elite presence down the middle.
The Jackets will have the chance to draft a core forward with the No. 3 pick in this year’s NHL draft; after Connor Bedard goes first to Chicago and Adam Fantilli goes second to Anaheim, Columbus will have its pick of forwards Leo Carlsson, Matvei Michkov and Will Smith.
Although THN’s editor-in-chief and prospect expert Ryan Kennedy had Columbus taking Michkov in his mock draft – and thus, projecting the Jackets potentially having to wait until 2026 for his KHL contract to end before he could be an NHL player – we can see the Blue Jackets selecting Carlsson to eventually grow into their top center position. That said, it won’t be easy for Carlsson to adapt to the NHL game. He’s got size at 6-foot-3, but at 198 pounds, he’ll need to bulk up to handle the physical side of the game.
Carlsson could contribute right away, but the Jackets can’t pin their playoff ambitions on his impact as a rookie. They’ll benefit from better luck on the injury front – only two of their players (star forward Johnny Gaudreau and blueliner Andrew Peeke) appeared in at least 80 games this past year. But when they have to go up against Metro powerhouses in Carolina, New Jersey and Manhattan, as well as against playoff hopefuls on Long Island, Pittsburgh and Washington, they’ll need more than luck to go their way.
They’ll need the structure Babcock will give them. They’ll need solid leadership in the dressing room to handle Babcock’s, at times, borderline-corrosive influence. And they’ll need their veterans who’ve been around for years now to step up their individual games.
Babcock comes to Columbus with a championship pedigree, but he’s also been rightfully criticized for some of his controversial personnel-improving technique attempts. Babcock will be looking to get the Blue Jackets into the post-season immediately, but he may have to settle for relatively slight improvement in the Metro and a slow-but-certain path forward overall.
After Tuesday’s big trade, they still don’t look like a playoff team to this writer, so it'll be intriguing to see if Babcock comes in delicately or like a bulldozer in an effort to get the Jackets into the post-season.
We think the first option is the right one, but who knows, maybe Babcock is still the cocky guy who rolled over people like Mitch Marner, Mike Commodore and Johan Franzen. Kekalainen could be playing with fire with his coaching hire, but he's also under huge pressure to produce tangible positive results. If Babcock fails this coming year, Kekalainen could be gone in short order.
There’s a reason Columbus failed miserably in 2022-23 – they simply don’t have enough depth in key positions – and though their off-season maneuvers will help in that regard, it’s nevertheless going to be a tough slog for them in the near future. And Babcock’s arrival doesn’t change the key challenges looming on their horizon.
They have to be much better very quickly, or it’ll be another season of no playoff games and fan misery.