Bounce-Back Candidates for the 2023-24 NHL Season

Whether it was due to injuries or subpar play, these six NHL players had a tough 2022-23 season. Carol Schram explains why a bounce-back year is in the cards for them.

If you invest in the stock market or play fantasy hockey, you've heard this warning many times:

"Past performance does not predict future performance."

During the off-season, it's so tempting to assume that every player who has taken a step forward will build on that performance and that those who have shown signs of decline to continue down that path — especially if they're over 30.

Last year, Erik Karlsson delivered an emphatic reminder that bounce-back seasons are very much a thing in the NHL and has a Norris Trophy to show for his efforts. Once playoffs rolled around, Sergei Bobrovsky did the same.

Here's a look at six players who underperformed last season for one reason or another. Three are coming back to their old team again this fall, while the other three will be experiencing a change of scenery.

All should be better in 2023-24.

In six full seasons with the Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators, Connor Brown was a model of consistency — a reliable two-way forward who was good on the penalty kill and could chip in double-digit goals and close to 40 points a year. He also stayed healthy, playing every game in five of those six seasons.

But after a trade in the summer of 2023, Brown suited up for just four games in a Washington uniform before suffering a serious knee injury. 

Not the best way to spend a contract year, but because Brown has more than 400 NHL games accrued and spent more than 100 days on long-term injured reserve last season, he qualified for a contract that includes performance bonuses — something that's typically only available for players who are at least 35 or on entry-level deals.

That contract flexibility made him a perfect fit for the Edmonton Oilers, who were short on cap space but looking to add some two-way muscle up front and shore up their penalty-killing. 

Brown signed a one-year deal for the league minimum of $775,000 this season. But the deal also carries a performance bonus of $3.225 million if Brown skates in 10 games — a virtual slam dunk, especially since he'll have had 11 months of recovery time from his ACL surgery by the time he gets started in Edmonton.

"The plan is to get better," Brown said at the end of the Capitals' season. "The plan isn't to just get back where I want to be. I want to make improvements."

The good news for the Oilers is that if they do end up paying that bonus and there isn't enough cap space for it all, the rest won't count against the salary cap until next season when the ceiling is expected to rise significantly.

Brown is also a known entity — a junior teammate of Connor McDavid's for two seasons with the Erie Otters and a former teammate of Zach Hyman's with the Leafs. 

In fact, Hyman's profile is quite similar to Brown's: a two-way guy with some offensive upside who topped out right around 20 goals and 40 points in Toronto. 

In his first season in Edmonton, Hyman hit career highs with 27 goals and 54 points. Last year, he shattered those marks with 36 goals and 83 points. 

It's not outrageous to think that Brown could do something similar — especially with another contract negotiation looming at the end of this season.

Now 32, Matt Duchene is just one year removed from the best season of his career, where he put up 43 goals and 86 points with the Nashville Predators. And while he missed 11 games last season, he still finished second in scoring on Nashville with 56 points in 71 games — decent, but not the level of production that new GM Barry Trotz deemed acceptable for a player with an $8-million cap hit for each of the next three seasons.

After his buyout, Duchene chose to sign with the Stars on a one-year 'prove it' deal with a cap hit of $3 million. He slots onto a team with all the pieces to be a Cup contender and an offense that was seventh-best in the NHL last season. 

Last year in Dallas, Peter DeBoer worked wonders with 33-year-old Jamie Benn, taking him from a 46-point player all the way back to 78 points, his best season in five years. Don't be surprised to see a motivated Duchene make a similar resurgence starting this fall.

Plenty of ink has been spilled about the Ottawa Senators' disappointing return on their one-year investment in Alex DeBrincat. But when a player's down year delivers 27 goals and 66 points, Red Wings fans should be excited about what the 25-year-old could bring now that he's in his preferred situation.

The native of Farmington Hills, Mich., should be embraced by the fan base from the outset. And with an opportunity to slot straight onto Detroit's top line with Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond and get time on the Wings' No. 1 power-play unit, DeBrincat could hit new highs in ice time while rebounding from last season's unusually low shooting percentage of 10.6 percent. His career average is 14.4.

By next spring, expect to see DeBrincat back in the 40-goal range while the Red Wings make a push to get back into the playoffs for the first time in eight years.

Auston Matthews scored 40 goals for the fifth time in his seven-year career last season and followed up with a point per game in the playoffs. But after his Hart Trophy-winning 60-goal campaign one year earlier, his season was considered a disappointment. Even on his own team, William Nylander matched his scoring pace and had a more productive post-season, while Mitch Marner led the Leafs with 99 points.

But Matthews also dealt with a sprained knee during the season, and in March, he admitted that he'd been playing through a hand injury which could help explain his career-low 12.2-percent shooting accuracy, down from 17.2 percent one year earlier. 

The Leafs' new additions up front should provide some snarl this fall, which will give Matthews more time and space to operate. More power-play chances would also be welcome — the Leafs were second in the league at converting with the man advantage last season but ranked 18th in the number of opportunities they received.

If Matthews comes back healthy this fall, a motivated Matthews should bounce back to his Hart Trophy levels as the clock ticks down toward his potential free agency.

To get an idea of how important John Carlson is to the Washington Capitals, consider these stats:

Carlson played in 40 games last season, and Washington's record was 20-16-4 when he was in the lineup. He missed 42 games — six with a lower-body issue early on, then 36 after he took that slap shot to the ear in December. Washington's record in those games was 15-21-6.

A full season of Carlson could have had the Caps in the mix to keep their playoff streak alive. Instead, they finished 12 points back of the Florida Panthers.

Even at 33, Carlson looked very much like his usual self when he was in the lineup, including during the 10 games after he returned from his scary injury. His average ice time for the year was 23:23, just three seconds below his career average. His 29 points in 40 games put his points per game a little lower than the last few seasons but still above his career average of 0.67.

Now with 927 games played, Carlson can hit that magical 1,000 mark if he stays healthy this year. And with rookie head coach Spencer Carbery at the helm and either Joel Edmundson or Rasmus Sandin most likely to be Carlson's new defense partner, the Caps should have the wind back in their sails as they aim to get back in the playoff mix while Alex Ovechkin continues his quest to break Wayne Gretzky's goal record.

Speaking of fresh starts, things will be different in Calgary next year. Ryan Huska is in the head coach's role, and offensive linchpins Jonathan Huberdeau and Nazem Kadri will be back in the fold with one year's adjustment under their belts.

There may be other roster moves before the regular season begins, but Jacob Markstrom has a no-movement clause and has made it clear he's sticking around with the intention of erasing the memory of his performance last season. 

Consistency can be one of the hardest things for a goaltender to dial in. And while Markstrom went from Vezina Trophy runner-up in 2022 to an .892 save percentage that's his lowest since becoming a starter, he has battled through difficult patches in his career before.

Huska's a defense-first bench boss, so Markstrom should have a goalie-friendly environment in which to operate this season. Expect a return to form.