Signing big-ticket NHL goalies in free agency has come back to haunt teams in recent years. Joonas Korpisalo can buck the trend by bringing the Ottawa Senators to the playoffs – and maybe save some jobs as well.
As the start of the NHL’s 2023-24 regular season looms large on the horizon, there are particular management teams under extreme pressure. But there may be no duo under more pressure to perform well than Ottawa GM Pierre Dorion and coach D.J. Smith.
The key to whether one or both of Dorion and Smith stays employed with the Senators lies largely in the hands of a player who has yet to play in his first real game as a Sen: goaltender Joonas Korpisalo.
The Senators have made a slew of high-profile additions in the past couple years – veteran forwards Claude Giroux and Vladimir Tarasenko, and defenseman Jakob Chychrun all make the Sens a dangerous group. But the off-season UFA signing of Korpisalo could prove to be the difference between making Ottawa a post-season team, which would keep Dorion and Smith around, and a non-playoff team, which would send Dorion and Smith packing.
From our perspective, we feel pretty positive about Korpisalo being the Senators’ starting netminder.
The 29-year-old posted good individual statistics between the woeful Columbus Blue Jackets and Los Angeles Kings last season, including a .915 save percentage and 2.87 goals-against average in 39 appearances. Korpisalo was better with the Kings (.921 SP, 2.13 GAA in 11 appearances), but he struggled in the playoffs (.892 SP, 3.77 GAA), which is why L.A. GM Rob Blake chose not to bring Korpisalo back on a lengthy extension.
The Sens wasted no time snapping up Korpisalo this summer, bringing him in on a five-year contract worth $4 million annually. And on Monday night in Halifax, N.S., he posted a 40-save pre-season shutout against Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins.
But there’s a real danger at play in this case – the danger that Korpisalo doesn’t deliver at least average-level netminding.
There’s no shortage of examples of goalies signing big-money, big-term contracts who aren’t able to find their previous form and leave their team in the salary cap lurch.
The most recent example comes in Edmonton, where veteran Jack Campbell signed a five-year, $25-million contract in the summer of 2022 and put up a ghastly .888 SP and 3.41 G.A.A. in 36 appearances. The 31-year-old Campbell lost his starter’s job to youngster Stuart Skinner to finish last season. While Campbell will probably get another shot at regaining the No. 1 spot, there’s a possibility he’ll be stuck behind Skinner as one of the NHL’s most expensive backups, and he’ll languish there until the Oilers brass buys out the remainder of his contract.
Similarly, the Florida Panthers thought they were getting a goaltending superman when they signed Sergei Bobrovsky to a seven-year, $70-million contract in 2019, but Bobrovsky has largely failed to perform at a level commensurate with a $10-million cap hit. Bobrovsky did raise his game in the 2023 post-season, but he’s now 35 and has three seasons remaining on his contract. No team is going to take him at that cap hit, leaving the Panthers stuck with him, for better or worse, through the 2025-26 campaign.
But wait, more teams likely have buyer’s regret on their long-term goalie contracts.
In Seattle, the Kraken gave Philipp Grubauer a six-year, $35.4-million contract in 2021. In the first two seasons of his deal, the 31-year-old posted a sub-.900 save percentage and a combined GAA of 3.04. Certainly, not ideal numbers from the German.
As well, the Anaheim Ducks extended goalie John Gibson’s contract on an eight-year, $51.2-million extension in 2018, leaving the 30-year-old with four seasons left on his current deal. Gibson has to play on a fully rebuilding Ducks team, but even with a cap hit of $6.4 million, Gibson hasn’t attracted enough trade interest to move on to another franchise.
There are teams that happily and properly hand over big-money contracts to their goalies. The New York Rangers are powered by elite netminder Igor Shesterkin, and the New York Islanders employ star goalie Ilya Sorokin. Both teams are overjoyed to have those two players under contract for a long time. That’s best-case scenario-type results. But for every one of those goalie long-term deals that work out, there are more that do not.
This is the fear in Ottawa. Their forward group is deep and balanced. Their defense corps is as strong as it’s been in years if not decades. But if Korpisalo wobbles under the pressure, and backup Anton Forsberg can’t excel when he’s called upon, all of the Sens’ potency in other areas will be for naught. And there isn’t a plethora of other options on the free agency market or the trade market, either. In essence, they’re stuck with Korpisalo and Forsberg.
Most, if not all UFA contracts are a gamble in one form or another. Unless you get a sure-thing, can’t-miss player in the prime of their career, you’re either paying players based on the promise they’ve shown as young up-and-coming athletes, or you’re paying them based on them replicating successful seasons in their recent past. There is no guarantee for just about any NHLer, but some players have that much more pressure to perform than most of their teammates.
If Korpisalo does not play well, Smith and Dorion could be the ones to pay for it with their jobs. Goaltending is a zero-sum line of work, and Korpisalo’s challenge is clear for everyone to see. If he thrives, the Senators will very likely make the playoffs and potentially surprise their opponents once they get there. However, if he struggles, the reverberations will be felt throughout the organization and result in consequential changes, both behind and in front of Ottawa’s bench this year.
The struggle is real, and everyone in Sens Army knows how high the stakes are. Korpisalo does, too. Let’s see how he responds.