Can't Get a Save? The Current Landscape is Tough for NHL Goalies

If your favorite team is struggling to keep the puck out of the net, you might be yearning for the days when stoppers like Dominik Hasek, Roberto Luongo, Henrik Lundqvist and Carey Price threw up save percentages in the .930 range while delivering upwards of 60 starts a year.

Things are different now, as the NHL has been successful in its mission to increase scoring. 

The offense kicked up starting in the 2005-06 season when teams scored an average of 3.08 goals per game after the league cracked down on obstruction plays and removed the two-line pass rule. Power-play opportunities increased dramatically and scoring went up by half a goal per team per game. Meanwhile, goalies' average save percentage plummeted from .911 to .901.

They didn't suddenly forget how to stop pucks: their environment shifted.

In subsequent seasons, as players began to adjust to the new rules, the number of power plays per game started to slide — from 5.85 per team per game coming out of the lockout down to 3.06 in the 2014-15 season. That year, Jamie Benn's 87 points were enough to capture the league scoring title as average save percentage rebounded all the way to .915. It didn't hurt that Carey Price also put together a Hart Trophy season with a 1.96 goals-against average and .933 save percentage in 66 games.

Garth Snow's late '90s  equipment setup is often referenced as the high-water mark for gigantic goalie gear. Even as late as 2003, Jean-Sebastien Giguere was swallowed up by his pads as he won the Conn Smythe Trophy with the Anaheim Mighty Ducks.

Not long after that, the league started to gradually implement new standards for shorter and narrower leg pads as well as smaller gloves and blockers. Goalie equipment shrank, and shooters had more real estate to score.

In the fall of 2018, when specifications shifted for goalies' chest protectors, there was an outcry from several top netminders who were concerned about safety issues. 

The changes went ahead, and after small declines over the two previous seasons, the average save percentage dropped to .910. It stayed the same in 2019-20. 

But since the NHL came back from the pandemic pause, save percentages have continued to trend downward. 

Last season, the NHL's goalies finished with an average save percentage of .904. This year, heading into Saturday's games, it had dropped a little more, to .903.

With their smaller gear, today's goalies definitely have it tougher than the top stoppers from the Dead Puck Era. But the drop in save percentage over the past three seasons also coincides with another unique force — the Flat Cap Years.

With every dollar so crucial, especially this season, teams don't have the flexibility to pivot easily if their starter underperforms or gets injured. That has led to numerous less-than-ideal situations around the league, with these three standing out:

Last season, the Boston Bruins won the Jennings Trophy with the fewest goals against thanks to their strong tandem of Linus Ullmark — who won the Vezina Trophy despite just 49 games played — and third-year pro Jeremy Swayman. And with Ullmark on a budget-friendly deal with a cap hit of $5 million and Swayman on his entry-level contract, the Bruins didn't have to break the bank to enjoy a team save percentage of .927. 

And while the current trend is to try to keep starters' workloads well below those 70-something game rates that we came to expect from Hall of Famers like Martin Brodeur, that's not easy for teams that don't have a reliable backup or their squad like the Oilers with Swayman in the fold.

Last season, four goalies played more minutes than Ullmark, but finished with save percentages below .900:

These higher-ticket stoppers weren't even delivering league-average netminding. But on top of uncomfortable optics, these teams generally didn't have any realistic options available.

A handful of teams did find inexpensive puck-stoppers who could get the job done. Stuart Skinner took over the starter's job in Edmonton while carrying a cap hit of $750,000, while Swayman, Pheonix Copley and Filip Gustavsson each delivered more than 20 wins while earning less than a million dollars, per CapFriendly.

Swayman's cap hit has bumped up to $3.475 million this season and his individual stats have now surpassed Ullmark's as Boston continues to enjoy the league's best team save percentage (.922).

Other squads that are sitting high in the standings while enjoying good results from both halves of their tandem include the Vancouver Canucks (.920), the Vegas Golden Knights (.915), the New York Islanders (.911), the Winnipeg Jets (.911) and the Los Angeles Kings (.910).

It's a strong indictment of the Pittsburgh Penguins' offense that Tristan Jarry and Alex Nedeljkovic have delivered a collective .913, fourth-best in the league even after their 7-0 loss to Toronto on Saturday — but still, sit well outside of a playoff spot.

Outside that top tier, we currently see numerous situations where starters are getting a large proportion of starts, even when they aren't playing at their best, and other incidents where teams need to rely on players on bargain contracts — many of whom are unproven — because that's the most they can afford.

Those flat-cap market forces will continue to make save percentages suffer this season. The question now is whether the scales will balance more effectively and help steady the save percentage decline next year when general managers have a little more room to maneuver.