Checking In On the NHL's Five Biggest Pending RFAs in 2024

As the 2023-24 season rolls on, teams from the top to the bottom of the NHL are keeping track of their pending RFAs and determining what their next moves will be.

The NHL landscape for RFAs has changed drastically since the beginning of the cap era. Bridge deals are to be avoided and big contracts with seven or eight-year terms where UFA years are bought are preferred. In a business that has increasingly emphasized future projections, the idea is to sign players to contracts that will provide excess value.

We’re in the player empowerment era, where athletes have more say and control of their futures than ever before. Take, for example, Matthew Tkachuk, who signed a three-year bridge deal following his entry-level contract, leaving him one year shy of UFA and paying him $1 million in base salary in Year 1 and $9 million in base salary in Year 3. It put Tkachuk in an excellent bargaining position for his next contract even though he still would’ve been an RFA upon expiry. The message: Pay me my one-year, $9-million qualifying offer and walk me to UFA, or sign me to a big long-term deal.

What ended up happening: Tkachuk did not wish to re-sign on a long-term deal, and with the Flames facing the prospect of Tkachuk accepting his qualifying offer and walking for free at the end of the season, filed for club-elected arbitration to prevent teams from making offer sheets and conducted the first sign-and-trade in the cap era by dealing him to the Panthers. It ensured all three parties were satisfied: The Panthers received Tkachuk, Tkachuk ended up in one of his preferred destinations with a long-term contract, and the Flames secured a substantial return for a player they could’ve lost for nothing by leveraging their negotiating power as the only team that could’ve offered Tkachuk an eight-year deal.

Will this year’s crop of RFAs use the same kind of strategy and leverage?

For the purposes of this list, pending RFAs currently on entry-level contracts are not included. Salary information is according to PuckPedia.

Cap hit: $7,350,000

The example set by Tkachuk would be the most dreaded scenario for the Canucks. Pettersson opted to begin the season without an extension, refusing to “rush into anything” and taking a wait-and-see approach to see how competitive the Canucks can be. The good news is the Canucks have been one of the NHL's best teams, but the bad news is the price for Pettersson, with no help from a projected increase in the salary cap, has gone up substantially.

However, GM Patrik Allvin said on Nov. 14 that he was hopeful an extension would get done, and with Pettersson on pace for his second consecutive 100-point season, he’s set to become the Canucks’ highest-paid player and perhaps the first player to finally bring Cup glory to Vancouver. Both sides reportedly remain optimistic a deal will be done, perhaps as soon as January or February, according to TSN's Darren Dreger.

Cap hit: $4,400,000

On pace for around 70 points, Hronek’s first full season with the Canucks has been a smashing success. The problem is the 26-year-old Czech defender might’ve priced himself off the team with a new cap hit that might be close to double what it is now. The Canucks will have roughly $20 million in cap space if they manage to re-sign Pettersson, who remains their top priority, but they also have plenty of other spots to fill and a looming extension for Brock Boeser in 2025. 

There has been no talk regarding an extension with Hronek, who is eligible for arbitration and a qualifying offer worth $5.28 million, which at least gives the Canucks the prospect of having him for at least one more season.

Cap hit: $3,979,000

Based on potential, Hart’s in line to get a massive extension. He’s having arguably the best season of his career with a .913 SP and 2.62 GAA, and the Flyers are in the thick of the playoff race. The wrinkle, however, is the emergence of Samuel Ersson, who is one year younger than Hart but also already signed to a much more team-friendly two-year extension with a $1.45-million cap hit. Given the inconsistency and rash of mediocre performances in net across the league this season, it’s given more credence to the idea that teams should not invest too much of their precious cap space in such a precarious and unpredictable position.

Keep in mind the Flyers still have Cal Petersen’s $5-million cap hit on their books, making Hart potentially the odd man out. There has been no news regarding an extension for Hart, and the Flyers will likely play out the season and keep their focus on making the playoffs before making a decision.

Cap hit: $3,475,000

Swayman was signed to a one-year extension last summer following an arbitration filing, and while past history indicates players don’t tend to stick around too long after arbitration, this might be the rare exception. Swayman is eligible to re-sign after Jan. 1, but he’s also due for a significant raise with a sparkling .928 SP and 2.25 GAA heading into the Christmas break. 

Linus Ullmark is signed for one more season at $5 million, which means the Bruins may end up with a significant amount of cap space tied up in goaltending for the 2024-25 season. There are good reasons to keep the reigning Jennings Trophy winners around long-term, but Ullmark is five years older, and the Bruins may have to commit to one or the other very soon. Should Swayman become available, perhaps via a sign-and-trade, he’d likely be the most sought-after RFA goalie on the market.

Cap hit: $2,500,000

Is there room for Mittelstadt in Buffalo? Rasmus Dahlin’s $11-million and Owen Power’s $8.35-million extensions kick in next season, and the Sabres already have two centers signed to long-term contracts in Tage Thompson and Dylan Cozens. 

Their pipeline is still fully stocked, which means big extensions in the coming seasons for players such as Jack Quinn, J.J. Peterka, Zach Benson and Devon Levi. Given the Sabres’ recent enthusiasm for handing out big long-term extensions to players following their ELC (Cozens, Power and Mattias Samuelsson), cap space could run out really quickly.

Mittelstadt had a breakout 59-point season in 2022-23, and he’s on pace for more than 65 points this season. He will be demanding a hefty raise from his current cap number. 

The Sabres may elect to kick the can down the road – Mittelstadt is arbitration-eligible – but they have to wonder if a big, long-term contract will impede their ability to sign other up-and-coming players when they already have two top-six centers. The Sabres have been disappointing this season, and you wonder if Mittelstadt can be trade bait to address other parts of their roster if they cannot afford to keep him.

- Martin Necas, RW, Hurricanes ($3,000,000)

- Ryan Lindgren, D, Rangers ($3,000,000)

- Dillon Dube, LW, Flames ($2,300,000)

- Kaapo Kakko, RW, Rangers ($2,100,000)

- Barrett Hayton, C, Coyotes ($1,775,000)

- Sean Durzi, D, Coyotes ($1,700,000)

- Owen Tippett, RW, Flyers ($1,500,000)

- Rasmus Sandin, D, Capitals ($1,400,000)