When the Buffalo Sabres left the ice on November 23, they had just defeated the San Jose Sharks to sweep their 3 game western road trip. The sat alone in 3rd place behind Toronto and Florida in the Eastern Conference’s Atlantic Division and were 7W-3L in their 10 prior games. With an overall record of 11W-9L-1OTL for 23 points and a goal differential of +4, this team of youngsters was finally ready to break through the franchise’s NHL-record 13 season playoff drought.
They wouldn’t win another game for a month.
In the 13 games the Sabres played between November 27 and December 21, the team had 0 wins, 10 losses in regulation, and 3 OT/shootout losses. 3 points out of a possible 26. When it was over, the Sabres record was 11-19-4, good for 26 points and tied for last place in the entire league.
There would be no worst to first run like the St. Louis Blues did in winning the Stanley Cup in 2019. The Sabres would never recover.
Many teams can go back and look at stretches of their season where they played particularly well or particularly poorly and point to that as the make-or-break point of their season. Those 13 games broke the Sabres.
Today (April 3) the Sabres sit with a 32-36-6 record, good for 70 points and their latest win (5-2 over the Ottawa Senators) got the Sabres out of the Eastern Conference basement for the first time since that miserable 13 game run.
Prior to the losing stretch, they had a .548 points percentage and were +4 goal differential.
During the losing stretch, they had a .115 points percentage and were -26 goal differential.
After the losing stretch, they have a .550 points percentage and are +3 goal differential.
Taken over the course of their season-to-date, a .550 points percentage would give them about 81 points. Those 81 points would put them in the 2nd wildcard spot, 3 points behind those same Ottawa Senators that they just defeated.
So, what went wrong? Simply put, they couldn’t score. They also couldn’t keep the puck out of their own net, but even outside of the dubious stretch they still give up more goals than average. During those 13 games, the team scored 28 goals, 2.15 goals for per game. In their other 61 games, the team has scored 213 goals or 3.49 goals per game. The difference is 1.34 goals per game.
During those 13 games, they lost 6 of them by 1 goal and 3 others by 2 goals. An additional 1-1/3 goals per game would have made all the difference in the world. That’s 9 of those 13 games where they could have gotten points (or more points in the case of the 3 OT/SO losses).
Yes, they need to do a much better job of keeping the puck out of their own net. It’s probably the most impactful change that could get them over the hump next season. However, with more consistent goal scoring during those 13 games, we could be looking at a playoff spot for them this year.