Connor Bedard: The Numbers Behind the Hype

When it comes to Connor Bedard, the most important number right now is No. 1.

That will almost certainly be his draft position in Nashville on June 28, where he'll be tasked with leading the rebuild of the Chicago Blackhawks. That's assuming they retain the No. 1 pick, of course — which every NHL team has done for the last 20 years. 

The last GM to successfully acquire a first overall pick was Craig Patrick. With the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2003, he sent the No. 3 pick to the Florida Panthers, along with a second-rounder and forward Mikael Samuelsson, in exchange for a third-round pick and that No. 1 selection, which he used to take Marc-Andre Fleury.

Selling Tickets

Earlier this season, the WHL's Regina Pats fended off rival GMs who were offering a king's ransom for the chance to add Bedard to their rosters for a playoff run — and for the tremendous box-office boost he was delivering. 

After proving that he could sell tickets at the junior level, Bedard did the same for Chicago almost instantly after Monday's draft lottery drawing.

Career Simulation

If you're the kind of person who likes to read the spoilers or fast-forward to the end of the movie, here's the EA Sports NHL 23 take on what Bedard's pro career could look like.

Of course, simulations have their limitations. To drive that point home, here's a look at EA Sports' last three simulated Stanley Cup final matchups:

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But let's suppose that Bedard's simulated numbers are in the right ballpark.

Based on the current all-time records, he'd slot into 28th place all-time with 1,455 games played, just behind Glen Wesley and ahead of Teemu Selanne.

His 739 goals would put him sixth between Brett Hull and Marcel Dionne.

His 1,145 assists would also be good for sixth all-time, behind Jaromir Jagr and ahead of Paul Coffey.

And his 1,884 total points would rank him fourth all-time, just behind Mark Messier and ahead of Gordie Howe.

To give you an idea of just how gaudy those numbers are, let's look at two of the players that Bedard is often compared to: Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid.

Turning 36 this summer, Crosby is at 1,190 games, with 550 goals, 952 assists and 1,502 points. Those numbers would all be higher if he hadn't missed time due to concussion issues, a lockout-shortened season and a pandemic disruption — the kind of circumstances that computer simulations are not very savvy about integrating. 

Crosby had 93 points this season. If he can maintain that pace for the next four years, he'll get to 1,874, 10 points shy of Bedard's projection.

Meanwhile, eight years in, Connor McDavid is probably not even at the halfway point of his NHL career. He's at 569 games, with 303 goals, 547 assists and 850 points.

Let's give McDavid another...12 years, say. That would take him to 38 years old and 1,422 games if he's able to maintain the same level of durability — not guaranteed as he ages, but he has done an incredible job of keeping himself consistently in the lineup after suffering that broken collarbone during his rookie year.

After adding another 30 points to his previous career high this season, it seems downright disrespectful to suggest that McDavid has hit his ceiling. But it also seems ludicrous to assume that he can keep doing what he's doing, let alone build on it. 

So, let's split the difference. If McDavid maintains his existing scoring rates for another 12 seasons, he'll get to 757 goals, 1,367 assists and 2,124 points. He'd be fifth in goals and second in both assists and points by today's standards, behind only Wayne Gretzky. And he'd be ahead of Bedard's numbers in all three categories.

Comparing Junior Careers

Of course, Crosby and McDavid are arguably the two most complete players in the NHL since Bedard was born in July 2005. Is it even fair to speak of him in the same breath?

Based on their junior numbers, it seems reasonable enough.

These three are all Canadian centers, but they played in different decades and in different junior leagues. So it's not quite apples-to-apples, but there are a lot of similarities in all three players' career arcs and their stats.

Crosby's QMJHL is the most notoriously high-scoring league. In his draft year in 2004-05, he put up 66 goals and 102 assists for 168 points in 62 regular-season games. That's 2.71 points per game and a little over a goal a game.

McDavid's draft year came a decade later, in 2014-15. He had 44 goals and 76 assists for 120 points in 47 games that season — a little under a goal a game and 2.55 points a game. 

Now, we've got Bedard. The 2022-23 season is his first 'normal' year of junior, with a full schedule and no pandemic-related travel restrictions. 

He came in at 71 goals and 72 assists for 143 points in 57 games. That's 1.25 goals a game and 2.51 points a game. 

It's the highest goal-scoring rate of the three — driving home everything we hear about Bedard's already world-class shot.

And to put that 143 points in perspective, he was the first WHL player in 27 years to break the 140-point threshold. He also finished 36 points ahead of second-place Chase Wheatcroft in this year's scoring race — and Wheatcroft is nearly three years older and played 11 more games.

Bedard and Wheatcroft were the only two 100-point players in the WHL this year. The OHL had three — 20-year-old Matthew Maggio and two players who turn 20 in June, Ty Voit and Amadeus Lombardi. 

In the QMJHL, 2022-drafted Jordan Dumais came close to Bedard's pace, with 140 points in 64 games. But true to its reputation, the Quebec league had six 100-point scorers, more than the other two leagues combined. 

Dumais' Halifax Mooseheads teammates Josh Lawrence and Alexandre Doucet, both 2002-born players who were mid-season trade acquisitions, had 119 and 115 points, respectively.

The Quebec Remparts, who are facing off against Halifax for the QMJHL championship, also have two 100-point players in 2003-born Zachary Bolduc (110 points) and undrafted 2002-born Theo Rochette (106 points). Riley Kidney, the 20-year-old who landed with Gatineau at mid-season, rounds out the group. He also had 110 points.

World Juniors Numbers

Like Bedard, both Crosby and McDavid also played for Team Canada at multiple World Junior Championships before they were drafted. 

As a 16-year-old in Finland in 2004, Crosby had two goals and three assists for five points in six games but settled for silver after a 4-3 loss to Team USA in the final. One year later, with tournament rosters stacked due to the NHL lockout, Crosby recorded six goals and nine points in six games and got his gold in Grand Forks in a 6-1 win over Alex Ovechkin and the Russians. Teammate Patrice Bergeron, two years older, was named the tournament's MVP.

McDavid had a goal and three assists in seven games in his 16-year-old performance, with Canada finishing fourth after a 2-1 loss to Russia in the 2014 bronze-medal game in Sweden. One year later, he got his gold on home ice in Toronto, tied for the scoring lead with 11 points in seven games, and was named to the tournament all-star team.

Bedard, of course, is now tied for fourth all-time in scoring at world juniors, with 36 points in 16 games. He started with five points in two games in the original 2022 tournament that was scrubbed due to the pandemic — and those points still count toward his individual stats. 

Then, he won gold while putting up eight points in seven games in the make-up tournament in Edmonton in August 2022. And finally, in his tour de force, Bedard earned MVP honors and a second gold medal with 23 points in seven games in Halifax last winter. Logan Cooley of the USA, one year older, finished second in tournament scoring with 14 points.

The all-time world juniors points record is held by Peter Forsberg. After he was drafted sixth overall in 1991, Forsberg posted 42 points in 14 games for Sweden in 1992 and 1993. But he had to settle for a pair of silver medals.

Bedard doesn't turn 18 until July, so he's still eligible for the 2024 and 2025 tournaments. Like Crosby and McDavid before him, expect to see him following the proceedings from inside an NHL locker room this winter.