The next nine games are an enormous chance for the Dallas Stars to build a cushion in the standings before they face a difficult stretch, writes Adam Proteau.
The Dallas Stars haven’t exactly lit the NHL on fire in their 10 games before the all-star break: although they entered the break on a two-game win streak, the Stars were just 5-2-3 in their past 10 games.
Luckily for them, they’ve been the Central Division’s most persistent group this season, and they’re now a full five points ahead of the second-in-the-Central Winnipeg Jets, and they’re entering a portion of the season in which they should be adding to their lead.
To wit: in its next nine games, Dallas starts with a tough three-game stretch against Tampa Bay, Boston and Minnesota. However, after that, the Stars take on Columbus, Chicago, Vegas, Vancouver, Arizona, and Chicago again. That makes five of six in a row that they should win. If they can earn at least one point in those first three games – the same way they’ve earned one point in each of their past three losses – and then make the most of the showdowns with teams they absolutely ought to beat, the Stars are going to remain at or very near the top of their division.
This team has approximately $1.6 million in salary cap space to play with by the league’s March 3 trade deadline, per CapFriendly. That isn’t a lot, but an honest appraisal of Dallas’ roster makes you wonder which part of their lineup really needs a lot of help.
Sure, the Stars could add some depth help in their bottom-six group of forwards or their bottom-two defense pairing, but you could say that of most teams. Most of those teams do not have the depth of top-end talent Dallas possesses.
Most teams do not have a young, rising-star goaltender, but the Stars sure have one in Jake Oettinger. Most teams do not have a slick, skilled No. 1 defenseman, but the Stars have one in Miro Heiskanen. Most teams don’t have a super-sniper forward, but Dallas has one in Jason Roberton. And most teams don’t have a dynamic mix of the young (including center Roope Hintz and 19-year-old Wyatt Johnston) and the not-so-young (Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn, Ryan Suter, Joe Pavelski) that the Stars have.
Dallas’ third defensive pairing, in particular, could benefit from a trade acquisition, and the Stars still have their 2024 and 2025 first-round draft picks to dangle in lieu of NHL-capable talent to offer to trade partners.
But if the playoffs began today, you wouldn’t want to be the eighth-place team that the Stars face in Round 1. Barring one unforeseen calamity or injury-related disaster, the Stars will be favored against just about any other team in the Western Conference.
Dallas is a consistent team – they’re 15-5-6 at home and 15-8-4 on the road – and they’re a well-coached team that can maul you with their offense and/or turn the screws on you in your offensive zone with tight backchecking and sound positional play.
Oettinger is a needle-mover, but he wouldn’t have the numbers he has (.926 save percentage, 2.22 goals-against average) if it weren’t for the defensive efforts of the defense corps and the all-around responsible forwards.
The schedule gets considerably more difficult for the Stars in their second stretch after the all-star break. They will battle against Colorado, Buffalo, Seattle (three times), Vancouver, Edmonton, Calgary and Pittsburgh. The Canucks are the lone team that should be a ‘gimme’ game for Dallas. This is why these first nine games are so crucial for the Stars the rest of the way.
If they emerge victorious in most of their first nine, they’ll have a cushion for the second nine-game portion of the schedule. If they don’t, suddenly, the Stars could lose home-ice advantage in the Western Conference if they slide down the Central standings.
Few teams thus far are in must-win mode, but there are a few, and Dallas isn’t one of them. The Stars are one of the most dangerous teams in the West, and they’re the team that has the best chance of eliminating the defending Stanley Cup-champion Avalanche in the conference. These next few weeks mean a lot for the Stars, and it will be riveting watching them rise to the challenge or fall beneath the pressure.