Players like Ryan O'Reilly, Dmitry Orlov and Garnet Hathaway were traded ahead of the NHL trade deadline. Does this improve or hurt their fantasy hockey value?
Players like Ryan O'Reilly, Dmitry Orlov and Garnet Hathaway were traded ahead of the NHL trade deadline. Does this improve or hurt their fantasy hockey value?
The NHL trade deadline is just six days away, and a few teams have already made their big moves. The major advantage to bolstering their rosters now rather than later is giving their newly acquired players a little more time to acclimate themselves to their new surroundings.
A player going from a lottery-bound team to a contender has a significant impact on player value in fantasy. Here’s a breakdown of what to expect and what we’ve seen so far.
Craig Smith, RW, Capitals
At one point in his career, Smith was one of the most dependable middle-six wingers in the league. He’s managed to stay healthy for nearly his entire career, and every season he was reliable for around 20 goals. In his age-33 season, however, Smith completely fell off the map, scoring just four goals and 10 points in 42 games with the Bruins and had trouble staying in the lineup.
His fantasy value gets a slight uptick with trade to the Caps because he’ll certainly get more ice time, but with no additional peripherals to speak of – he’s not a physical winger, nor is he a high-volume shooter – Smith isn’t on the radar even in the deepest of leagues.
Dmitry Orlov, D, Bruins
Orlov will most certainly play fewer minutes than he did with the Caps (22:43 TOI/GP). The Bruins pecking order on their blueline is well-established, with Charlie McAvoy and Hampus Lindholm at the top, and it’s highly unlikely Orlov will displace either of them on the power play. At a minimum, Orlov’s scoring rate will drop, but Orlov’s real fantasy value is in blocks (62) and hits (88). In a more defensive matchup role, his blocking and hitting rates might actually increase, giving him a slight bump in banger leagues, though still not enough to be anything more than a streaming option.
Garnet Hathaway, RW, Bruins
If you’re looking for hits, Hathaway’s your guy. Jakub Zboril played less than eight minutes as the seventh defenseman Thursday against the Kraken, and Hathaway will assuredly replace him in the lineup. He’ll form one of the most physical fourth lines in the league along with Trent Frederic and A.J. Greer, all of whom are at least 6-foot-3 and 208 pounds. Hathaway has major value in banger leagues for his hits, but the downside is his meagre offensive output.
Nikita Zaitsev, D, Blackhawks
The much-maligned Zaitsev will get significantly more playing time with the Hawks than with the Sens, especially if the Hawks move out some of their veteran ‘D,’ including Jake McCabe. While Zaitsev is occasionally tough to watch, getting caved in regularly isn’t so bad in fantasy because it often leads to a plethora of opportunities to block shots or throw a hit.
For six straight seasons, Zaitsev has managed to eclipse 100 blocks and 100 hits, something only four other active defensemen have managed to accomplish: Adam Larsson, Connor Murphy, Darnell Nurse and David Savard. Say what you want about Zaitsev’s actual impact on the game (slim to none), but in banger leagues, there’s some value in what he can do.
Tyler Motte, LW/RW, Rangers and Julien Gauthier, RW, Senators
Gauthier has close to zero fantasy value as a big winger who doesn’t rack up the hits, and even with a little more playing time with the Sens, it’s unlikely to make much of a difference.
Motte has a little more value because he’s the better player, but note he averaged 9:45 in two games with the Rangers after averaging 13:32 in 38 games with the Sens. The Rangers’ depth will make it difficult for Motte to get ice time, and in those two games, he also didn’t register any hits. If Motte’s not going to get any minutes or increase his hitting rate, he also has little to no fantasy value.
Ryan O’Reilly, C, and Noel Acciari, C/LW, Maple Leafs
O’Reilly is quickly becoming a hot commodity in fantasy once again. He’s now rostered in over 60 percent of Yahoo leagues, even though he was rostered in less than half the leagues with the Blues. Though his line with John Tavares and Mitch Marner was held off the scoresheet Friday against the Wild, they still managed to generate eight shots on goal. The sample size isn’t big, but note on moneypuck.com that Tavares-O’Reilly-Marner is generating 3.32 expected goals per 60 minutes, which isn’t that far off from Auston Matthews’ line, which is generating 4.00 xGF/60.
O’Reilly will undoubtedly be far more effective with the Leafs playing with an elite scorer in Marner, even if he’s averaging a little less ice time than with the Blues. Quality over quantity, I say, and O’Reilly’s worth picking up in fantasy leagues in all formats. There’s some peripheral upside for Tavares, too, who may gain LW eligibility if their line stays intact for the rest of the season.
Acciari’s stint with the Leafs hasn’t been as exciting, but he’s still fitting in quite nicely with a goal and 13 hits in three games. Acciari’s got big value in banger leagues because he shoots and hits a fair amount, and he’s certainly got some finishing ability with a career 11.3 shooting percentage. The Leafs have elected to play Acciari on their fourth line, which certainly caps his offensive value, but there hasn’t been a discernible difference in his playing time with the Blues (14:35 TOI/GP) and the Leafs (13:53 TOI/GP).
While O’Reilly’s possession numbers have seen a small improvement, Acciari has gone from a 43.60 5-on-5 Corsi-for percentage with the Blues to a 60.53 5-on-5 CF% with the Leafs, according to naturalstatrick.com. It’s a small sample size, but it’s encouraging to see, and with a little more luck, Acciari might also experience a boost in offensive production. Again, with an emphasis on quality over quantity, this might work out well for Acciari. He remains a strong streaming option for fantasy managers looking for some hits with some bonus offense.