We break down the top tiers, plus a look at the best kids from the QMJHL, NCAA free agents and the USHL's hottest prospect.
We break down the top tiers, plus a look at the best kids from the QMJHL, NCAA free agents and the USHL's hottest prospect.
We're getting to the point in the NHL season where a lot of teams have been either officially eliminated from playoff contention or at least spiritually cooked, with the math soon to follow. So if you're a fan of one of those teams, the draft offers hope for the future.
But how high do you need your team to pick to get a top-tier player in 2024?
Yes, yes, there will always be players who outperform their draft slots (Tampa Bay and St. Louis have benefitted from this in recent years), but I'm going to break down the top end for you right now, because it is a unique draft. Here's where I see things right now:
Macklin Celebrini, the brilliant center with Boston University, is in a tier of his own. He is the No. 1 prospect and there's no reason to dispute that. But after Celebrini, I would group the following players together - and I'll do so alphabetically because they're practically interchangeable.
Zeev Buium, D, Denver (NCAA)
Berkly Catton, C, Spokane (WHL)
Ivan Demidov, RW, SKA St. Petersburg (Rus.)
Sam Dickinson, D, London (OHL)
Cole Eiserman, LW, U.S. NTDP (USHL)
Konsta Helenius, C, Jukurit (Fin.)
Artyom Levshunov, D, Michigan State (NCAA)
Cayden Lindstrom, C, Medicine Hat (WHL)
Zayne Parekh, D, Saginaw (OHL)
Anton Silayev, D, Torpedo (Rus.)
That's a big group. But what I'm saying right now is that if someone took Eiserman second overall, I would get it - he's an incredible goal-scorer. If he dropped to ninth, I would also understand - he does need to work on other facets of his game. If a team prefers Dickinson on the blueline to Levshunov (or vice versa), I wouldn't bat an eye. Same with Buium and Parekh or Silayev.
The only thing I will point out is that Catton and Helenius are the most likely to get burned on draft day because both were measured by Central Scouting at a shade under 5-foot-11 and historically, teams get scared of 'smaller' players in the top-10. Of course, Zach Benson is only 5-foot-10 and he jumped straight from the 2023 draft to the NHL with Buffalo - so the fears seem to be unwarranted. Having said that, the Sabres got Benson outside the top 10 with the 13th selection overall.
Right after this tier, I would look at defenseman Carter Yakemchuk of WHL Calgary, center Tij Iginla from WHL Kelowna and right winger Liam Greentree of OHL Windsor. They're pretty close.
The 'Q' Factor
The recently renamed Quebec Maritime League, aka QMJHL aka The 'Q,' did not have a single first-rounder in the 2023 NHL draft.
Will that change in 2024? I would say it's possible, but no guarantee.
Right now, I'm looking at Chicoutimi's Maxim Masse and Rimouski's Spencer Gill as the top two prospects available. Both have intriguing upside and both have work to do. Masse is a 6-foot-2, 192-pound right winger with 73 points through 65 games, leading the Sags by a wide margin.
"The team he's on probably doesn't play to his strengths," said one scout. "He's a real shooter and if he had a veteran guy to get him the puck he'd score more. Skating needs work, but it's not a problem. A lot of it is leg strength. A couple mechanics need to be ironed out too, but it doesn't stop him from getting to places on time. In a few years, he could be better than a lot of people think."
Meanwhile, Gill is a 6-foot-4, 185-pound defenseman with the Oceanic who has put up 41 points through 63 games.
"Shows a lot of poise," said the scout. "He has a controlled aggression, which I like. Competes in front of the net and along the walls. He needs to get stronger and that seems to be more emphatic when you're taller because of balance. His play execution is really good, he sees the ice really well and makes good play recognition early, which a lot of kids don't. Once he's 195, 200 pounds, he'll be a handful."
The Other March Madness
The field for the Frozen Four is narrowing, and this upcoming weekend will lock everyone in for the national championship tournament.
A few automatic bids are still up for grabs, and they could have a bearing on the NHL college free agent market. For example, Dartmouth needs to win the ECAC tournament to make the Frozen Four round of 16. If the Big Green fall short, then 6-foot-8 netminder Cooper Black will have to decide whether he wants to come back for another year or sign a pro contract.
Similarly, Bemidji State center Lleyton Roed will draw interest if the Beavers don't make the bracket. He's a do-everything guy for the team, from power play to penalty-kill and Bemidji needs to win the CCHA tournament to qualify for the big dance.
Hage Match
USHL Chicago center Michael Hage has been on a serious heater of late with 17 points in his past 10 games. That's helped him vault into the top three of league scoring and he has done so with a heavy heart after losing his father this past summer. The University of Michigan commit is one to watch for the 2024 draft - he's definitely a first-rounder, but at this pace, how high will he end up?
"Very talented and a lot of tools," said one scout. "He's gone through a lot of adversity this year with his father passing away and he seems to be getting hot at the right time. Just a ton of skill."