The Blues traded Ryan O'Reilly and Vladimir Tarasenko at the NHL trade deadline, but the team's improved lately. Is a retool the best option this off-season?
Alexey Toropchenko is congratulated by teammates after scoring an empty-net goal against the Philadelphia Flyers on April 4.Of the 16 teams that aren’t going to be in the NHL’s Stanley Cup playoffs this spring, the St. Louis Blues are one of the most intriguing.
Blues GM Doug Armstrong did what he needed to do prior to the league’s March 3 trade deadline – most notably, turning veterans stars Vladimir Tarasenko and Ryan O’Reilly into two 2023 first-round draft picks, and a second-rounder, third-rounder and fourth-rounder – but Armstrong did not conduct a full-on fire sale.
Because of that decision, the Blues have been fairly competitive, going 9-4-2 in their past 15 games and 6-2-2 in their past 10. But they’re not good enough to be a post-season team, and now, St. Louis management is arriving at a pivotal moment in franchise history.
Namely, is this summer the time for the Blues to continue to strip down their roster and look to the future for the time when they can be a legitimate Cup contender again? Or does he believe that this recent stretch of solid play is a harbinger that St. Louis can quickly get back into the playoff mix and just needs a change of veteran chemistry?
Certainly, Armstrong’s decision to acquire former Red Wings winger Jakub Vrana at the trade deadline doesn’t fit in with the notion the Blues are going to commit to a basement-to-roof rebuild. The 27-year-old Czech still has another year to go on his current $5.25 million-per-season contract. Detroit is retaining 50 percent of that deal, however, so he’s a relative bargain considering he’s quickly had some significant success since becoming a Blue – posting nine goals and 12 points in 16 games. But when he becomes a UFA in the summer of 2024, Vrana presents a spending opportunity for St, Louis. They are projected to have much more cap space at that time, but a year-and-a-quarter is a very long time in hockey.
It’s no small wonder, then, that there have been rumors the Blues could move veteran blueliner Colton Parayko in the off-season. The 29-year-old would be in high demand, even though his goal total of four this year is less than half of what he generated back in 2018-19 and 2019-20.
He’s still a tremendous physical presence who averages more than 23 minutes per game, and he’s got cost certainty for the next seven seasons, averaging a manageable $6.5-million cap hit. There would be a lengthy lineup of suitors for a player like that, and Armstrong could reap another slew of draft picks or above-average prospects in any Parayko deal.
On the other hand, if the Blues find a different veteran in net to replace journeyman Thomas Greiss, who becomes a UFA this summer, they could have enough in the competitive tank to challenge for a playoff spot. For better or worse, they’re stuck with Jordan Binnington in net – he’s got another four seasons left at an average annual cap hit of $6 million. But Armstrong could take a flier on – say, Semyon Varlamov, Frederik Andersen or Cam Talbot – and use what little cap space he has this summer to give St. Louis a better tandem between the pipes and see if that’s enough to make them a playoff-bound group.
The Blues are at a crossroads of sorts. Armstrong deserves credit for making the difficult choice to move O’Reilly and Tarasenko, but their pending UFA contract status basically left him with no choice. The really important decisions are still to come, and the choice Blues brass makes this summer could dictate the number of years it takes for St. Louis to rise back to their Cup-winning form of 2019.
If he guesses wrongly, and the wrong decision winds up being the choice to retool and not completely rebuild, he won’t be able to say he didn’t see the downside of that philosophy coming.