How Many NHL Goalies Will Reach 40 Wins In 2023-24?

In the NHL, it's pretty easy to define an elite offensive player — or an elite season. Fifty goals and 100 points are nice round numbers that stand the test of time, and it's exciting that more players are hitting those milestones with scoring on the rise.

What's the equivalent for goaltenders? The analytics crowd likes save percentage or numbers that can help measure a netminder against his peers, like goals saved above expected or quality start percentage.

But it's the GMs who vote for the Vezina Trophy. And while it's commonly assumed they funnel their votes toward the goalies who deliver the most wins, their thinking seems also to be influenced by other factors, including reputation and, perhaps, how much they believed a goaltender influenced his team's results.

Top goalies' win totals also vary by era, depending on the trends of the day.

With teams now starting to lean into platoon approaches in net, there's a move away from the gaudy win totals like Martin Brodeur put up during his heyday. The four-time Vezina winner cracked 70 regular-season games 12 times in his career, including 10 times in a row from 1997-98 to 2007-08 (although he did get a full season off in the  2004-05 lockout). He exceeded 40 wins eight times in his 22-year career.

But it was a very different time: the New Jersey Devils allowed an average of just 25.5 shots per game during that 70-plus-game decade in the heart of the Dead Puck Era.

By comparison, last season's busiest goalie, Juuse Saros, saw 2,099 pucks in 64 appearances. His average of 32.8 shots per game is almost five shots more than Brodeur's average in his busiest year: 2,011 shots faced in 78 games for 28 per match in 2006-07, when he set a new NHL record with 48 wins.

Four goalies have met or approached Brodeur's mark in the last decade. 

In his Vezina Trophy season under Barry Trotz, as the Washington Capitals put up their back-to-back Presidents' Trophy campaigns, Braden Holtby tied Brodeur with 48 wins in a relatively conservative 66 games in 2015-16 while averaging 27.3 shots against per game. 

Andrei Vasilevskiy (65 GP, 2017-18), Carey Price (66 GP, 2014-15) and Connor Hellebuyck (67 GP, 2017-18) also each notched 44-win campaigns. 

This past season, two goalies hit the 40-win mark. It's the first time that's happened since that 2017-18 season when Vasilevskiy and Hellebuyck shone — and Pekka Rinne beat them both out for the Vezina with his 42-win campaign.

Here's how the top-three Vezina voting played out for the 2022-23 season:

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Even though Ullmark played on one of the best teams in history and started a relatively low 48 games in his tandem with Jeremy Swayman, he was still the runaway Vezina winner, with 22 first-place votes. His .938 save percentage was in a class of its own, as was his .896 quality start percentage, and he finished second to Saros in goals saved above expected.

It was a great year for the big Swede, who even scored a goal. But with across-the-board stats that were so much better than anything he's posted before and the fact that he'll likely play a relatively low number of games again, by starters' standards, it seems unlikely that Ullmark will get back to 40 wins again in 2023-24.

Though Georgiev received only one Vezina vote for second place, he may have a better chance of going back-to-back.

On a new team last season and in his first year as a full-time starter, the 27-year-old logged the third-most minutes of any goalie and hit 40 wins with the banged-up and fatigued Colorado Avalanche. If a long summer helps the 2022 champs return to form this fall, Georgiev could go big again — and he should get a lot more attention, too, if he puts up those kinds of numbers in consecutive years.

That's the bump Sorokin received last season. In his second year as a true No. 1, he finished with a comparatively modest 31 wins but the sixth-most minutes played, a solid .700 quality start percentage and 38.7 goals saved above expected, good for third place. Now 28, he was the most popular runner-up choice among Vezina voters, with 17 second-place votes.

But it's hard to imagine Sorokin's win totals rising next season. He no longer needs to prove himself for his next contract after signing a juicy eight-year extension with a cap hit of $8.25 million. And with Semyon Varlamov also back on Long Island, next season's workload distribution should be similar if both stoppers remain healthy.

Sorokin should deliver another solid season. But the Islanders are largely running things back after barely squeaking into the playoffs. It doesn't look like they're poised for a meaningful improvement.

But then there's Connor Hellebuyck. He's a perpetual workhorse who will be hella-motivated to have a great season as he heads toward unrestricted free agency at age 31 — and looks to secure a ticket out of Winnipeg.

After four straight years of leading the league in shots faced and saves made, Hellebuyck passed his 'busiest goalie' title to Saros in 2022-23 — while still making more than 60 starts for the fourth time in his eight-year career. Last season's .688 quality start percentage was the best of his career, his 37 wins were second only to his 44-win season in 2017-18, and his .920 save percentage was just a hair below the .922 he recorded when he won the Vezina Trophy in 2020.

The Jets' 3.00 goals-for per game ranked them 21st in the NHL last season. It was their top-10 defending that earned them a playoff spot, and Hellebuyck provided a crucial last line of defense. 

Whether it's in Winnipeg or elsewhere, don't be surprised if Hellebuyck builds on his already stellar stats with a career year that could see him back in the 40-win club for the second time in his career.

Now — to Nashville, where Saros has ably stepped into the big skates of franchise legend Pekka Rinne while also serving as a beacon of hope for every young goaltender who doesn't crack six feet.

Listed at 5-feet-11 and 180 pounds, the 28-year-old Finn led the league for the second straight year in games and minutes played. He also took over from Hellebuyck in most shots faced and most saves made and led the league in goals saved above expected — all after coming back from the April 2022 ankle injury that torpedoed the Predators' playoff chances that spring and while watching his team go through a major trade-deadline sell-off.

On Jan. 5, he also made 64 saves — tied for the third-most of all-time — as the Predators took a 5-3 road win from the Carolina Hurricanes.

To give you even more of an idea of what Saros can do almost on his own, consider this: after the March 3 trade deadline, the Predators went 12-9-2 despite averaging a league-low 2.35 goals-for per game. Saros started 18 of those 23 games. And despite Nashville's paper-thin roster and his heavy workload all year, he put up a 2.47 goals-against average and .924 save percentage that actually improved his full-season numbers to .919 and 2.69, respectively.

A Vezina finalist in 2021-22, Saros finished fourth in the voting last season, scooping up two first-place, two second-place and eight third-place votes. 

New Nashville coach Andrew Brunette deployed a bit of a run-and-gun style when he won the Presidents' Trophy with the Florida Panthers two years ago, but it's hard to imagine a team now overseen by Trotz playing that way. Look for the new brain trust to put Saros in a position to succeed. After 38- and 33-win seasons, 40 isn't out of reach.

Elsewhere:

Igor Shesterkin got to 36 wins in his Vezina Trophy-winning season in 2021-22 — an Ullmark-like campaign when he posted a .935 save percentage and was unbeatable on some nights. Last season, his personal numbers dropped — but he improved to 37 wins. 

As the new coach of the Rangers, Peter Laviolette is expected to install a stronger defensive structure than was used by Gerard Gallant. That could help Shesterkin get to 40 wins for the first time.

Out west, Jacob Markstrom would like nothing better than to get back to the level that made him Shesterkin's runner-up in 2022 when he posted 37 wins and nine shutouts. The Flames still have a terrific defense corps. Last year's newcomers should be better settled, and demanding Darryl Sutter has been shown the door. Look for a bounce-back year for the Calgary keeper.

Andrei Vasilevskiy could also be due for a return to form in Tampa after his first long summer vacation in four years. A four-time Vezina finalist, Vasilevskiy has one 44-win season and two at 39 wins. If he comes back rested and sharp, he could be operating in that sphere once again.

And if you're looking for a newcomer to step up, consider Filip Gustavsson in Minnesota. Signed for a very reasonable cap hit of $3.5 million, the 25-year-old split duties with Marc-Andre Fleury last season, and both exceeded 20 wins. But Gustavsson's underlying numbers were much better, from his .931 save percentage to his seventh-best goals saved above expected. With Fleury turning 39 in November, Gustavsson's workload should increase this season — but maybe not enough to get him all the way to 40 wins.

That number should be achievable for Jake Oettinger — who likes to play a lot and who got to 37 wins in the regular season last year before the Dallas Stars made their run to the Western Conference final. 

While missing four games last November due to a lower-body injury, Oettinger still played a career-high 62 games last year and improved to a .919 save percentage and .637 quality start percentage.

The Stars are a well-constructed team that deserved the trip to the Final Four. It's a good environment for Oettinger to strive for even more success this season.