Is there any significance if a young prospect puts on a show in the NHL's pre-season or a team flunks? Carol Schram examines the past couple of years to figure it out.

Should you be happy? Should you be worried?

With the NHL's 2023-24 pre-season already more than 20 percent finished, what information can fans seize that could offer an indication of what the regular season might hold?

This is the third year the NHL has been back to a typical pre-season following the pandemic-shortened 56-game campaign, which kicked off in January of 2021 without any warmup contests.

Let's look at some of the key numbers from the last two exhibition campaigns and compare them to what we're seeing early this year. Were they indicators of what followed? And who is sliding into similar positions?

Wins, Losses and Goal Differentials

No team went unbeaten in the 2022 pre-season. The closest was the Nashville Predators, who went 3-0-1. But they took part in just four official exhibition games because they played in the NHL Global Series contests against the San Jose Sharks in Prague and also skated in a warmup game against a Swiss side in Bern.

Because teams play different numbers of pre-season games, it would be terrific if the NHL broke down the results by points percentage. But they don't, so we'll shout out the two teams who earned the most standings points, both from the Central Division. The Minnesota Wild went 6-1-0 in pre-season play for 12 points, while the St. Louis Blues were 6-2-0 over eight games.

The Wild also had the best pre-season goal differential, at plus-15. They rode that wave to a 103-point season before falling to the Dallas Stars in the first round of the playoffs, while the Blues and the Preds were sellers by the trade deadline and failed to make the playoffs.

In 2021, the best team in the pre-season was the Edmonton Oilers. They amassed a record of 6-1-1 for 13 points over eight games and a plus-9 goal differential. The New York Islanders were the only team to get through without a regulation loss, with a 3-0-2 record over five games and just nine goals allowed. And the best differential belonged to the Toronto Maple Leafs, with a plus-13 off their record of 6-1-0. 

It seems so long ago already: the Oilers reached the final four before falling to the Colorado Avalanche, while the Leafs finished with 115 points before losing in seven games to the Tampa Bay Lightning. After two long playoff runs, the Islanders missed the playoffs with 84 points in the 2021-22 season, leading them to part ways with coach Barry Trotz.

This year, the early pre-season returns favor the Florida Panthers, who posted 5-0 and 5-2 wins over the Predators in split-squad games on Monday. The New Jersey Devils also picked up where they left off, crushing the Philadelphia Flyers 6-0 on home ice while simultaneously picking up a 4-2 win in Montreal.

After kicking off their exhibition campaign with a 10-0 destruction of the Vancouver Canucks, the chip-on-their-shoulder Calgary Flames followed that up with a 3-2 shootout win and a 5-3 loss to the Seattle Kraken in split-squad games on Monday — with the road team prevailing in both those contests. 

Dallas also started well, beating the Arizona Coyotes 7-0 on Sunday. But let's put an asterisk next to that one since the Desert Dogs were playing their fifth game in two calendar days, with three squads spread from Melbourne, Australia, to the southwestern U.S.

Meanwhile, five teams have not yet suited up for a pre-season game as of Monday night. 

On Tuesday, the Carolina Hurricanes and Tampa Bay Lighting will both get things started in Raleigh, and the Islanders will play their first game at Madison Square Garden against the Rangers, who fell 3-0 to Boston on Sunday. 

On Thursday, the Chicago Blackhawks play their first game against the 1-1-0 Blues, the same night the Detroit Red Wings get going against the Washington Capitals, who fell in a shootout to Buffalo on Sunday.

What Did The Top Teams Do?

Before they hoisted their franchise's first Stanley Cup and embarked on an epic celebration last June, the Vegas Golden Knights went a solid-but-not-spectacular 4-2-1 in the 2022 pre-season under their new coach, Bruce Cassidy. Before Cassidy's previous team, the Boston Bruins, set NHL records with 63 wins and 135 points, Jim Montgomery's squad went 3-3-0 in exhibition play, with a modest plus-2 goal differential.  

The 2021-22 Colorado Avalanche offer hope for this year's contenders regardless of their pre-season results. They went a pedestrian 3-4-0 in pre-season before embarking on their Stanley Cup campaign. That year's Presidents' Trophy winner, the Florida Panthers, started 5-2-0 but had a goal differential of only plus-2. In the regular season, the Panthers were off to a gaudy 7-0-0 start when Joel Quenneville resigned in late October. Andrew Brunette took the squad to a 51-18-6 record the rest of the way and Florida's first playoff series win since 1996.

In our 2023-24 Hockey News Writers Poll, the four top vote-getters as potential Stanley Cup champions are Edmonton, Carolina, Colorado and Dallas. As mentioned, the Hurricanes have yet to play a pre-season game, while the Stars crushed the Coyotes in their first outing.

After some significant off-season changes, the Avalanche are off to a so-so start. They gave up a couple of late power-play goals to lose 4-3 to Minnesota on Sunday, then earned a 3-2 home win over Vegas on Monday.

And with all the talk of their Stanley Cup aspirations, the Oilers are coming out of the gate very quietly. They've been outscored by a cumulative total of 7-1 in two games against the Winnipeg Jets — a 2-1 shootout loss on Sunday and a 5-0 shutout on Monday. But Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl's names are conspicuously absent on both game sheets, and goaltending duties so far have been shared by Olivier Rodrigue and Calvin Pickard — not a Stuart Skinner or a Jack Campbell in sight.

True to form for a pre-season road game, the Oilers' roster for Monday's clash in Winnipeg was loaded with prospects who had been skating in the Young Stars Classic just a week earlier.

Individual Stars

As a general rule, you won't see the NHL's biggest stars leading pre-season scoring lists. They usually don't suit up for many games and are more concerned about rounding their game into form than they are about production.

That certainly held true in 2022.

One year ago, the top scorer in the pre-season was Minnesota Wild rookie Marco Rossi, who put up two goals and seven assists for nine points in six games. 

That was not much of a harbinger of things to come. In 19 games with the Wild last season, the 21-year-old Austrian managed just one assist, although he was a point-per-game producer during his time in the AHL with the Iowa Wild.

The top goal-scorer in the 2022 pre-season was 2020 first-round draft pick Yegor Chinakhov of the Columbus Blue Jackets, who potted six goals in six games. In his second season in North America, an ankle injury limited Chinakhov to just 30 NHL games, where he managed four goals and 13 points. In the AHL, he collected eight points in seven games with the Cleveland Monsters.

Also worth noting: four goals in four pre-season games from Matty Beniers on his way to winning the Calder Trophy with Seattle. That was the real deal.

The 2021 pre-season was more of a mixed bag. Some guy named Connor McDavid finished atop the scoring list with nine points in four games. Some big names were also among those on his tail with seven points: Draisaitl, Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk. 

But the pre-season goals leader was Brendan Perlini, on a two-way contract with the Oilers, who potted six goals in six games. That earned the then-25-year-old a spot in Edmonton's opening-night lineup, but he was on waivers by December. He was quickly recalled, but the big winger finished the season with just four goals and five points in 23 games in an Edmonton uniform. Perlini didn't receive a qualifying offer from the Oilers and spent last season with the AHL's Chicago Wolves. This fall, he's in Carolina on a PTO.

A couple of rookies have led the way offensively so far this year. Calgary's Matt Coronato and Arizona's Josh Doan both logged hat tricks in their first-ever NHL pre-season games. Adrian Kempe also scored three times over the Kings' two games in Australia.

The early returns on Oliver Ekman-Larsson's new situation in Florida are also positive. After having been bought out by Vancouver, he picked up three assists in his debut in a Panthers uniform.

Brick Walls

Goalie performances aren't easy to assess from pre-season since games are often split. Most stoppers don't see a whole lot of action, and the quality of shots they're facing can be all over the map.

From the 2022 pre-season, the number that jumps out for Pheonix Copley of Los Angeles isn't so much his perfect 1.000 save percentage as the fact that he only played in one game, with 41:48 of ice time. Copley then spent the first two months of the season in the AHL. When he was recalled in early December, he helped save the Kings' season by putting up a record of 24-6-3. 

This year, Copley is in a battle for the starting role with Cam Talbot and David Rittich. He's the highest paid of the three, at $1.5 million.

Looking back to 2021, a number worth noting is two goals allowed in 119:43 of action for Adin Hill, then with the San Jose Sharks. Injuries became the story of his 2021-22 season, but he posted a .906 save percentage in 25 appearances with the Sharks before being dealt to Vegas on Aug. 29, 2022, in exchange for a 2024 fourth-round draft pick. 

Deep on the Golden Knights' depth chart, Hill went 16-7-1 and put up a .915 regular-season save percentage with Vegas before becoming the last goalie standing during the Stanley Cup run. Now the proud owner of a two-year contract that carries a cap hit of $4.9 million, Hill looks set to start the season sharing the crease with Logan Thompson as Vegas begins its Stanley Cup defense.

Among the 18 goalies who have seen action without surrendering a goal through Monday's games, per naturalstattrick.com, Jacob Markstrom's name jumps out. As a former Vezina Trophy finalist, the fact he was between the pipes for the Flames to start their first pre-season game on Sunday speaks volumes about his commitment to starting well and authoring a bounce-back season. His 1.91 goals saved above average in 40 minutes of action against the Canucks suggests that he's on the right track.

Also, a shoutout to Spencer Knight for his successful return to action after spending time in the NHL's player assistance program. The 22-year-old stopped all 13 shots he faced, including four high-danger chances, in 29:03 of action against Nashville.