How NHL Teams Evaluate Their Prospects At The World Juniors

An inside look at how franchises judge the performances of their top kids during international play.

The 2023 World Junior Championship has reached the medal round. This year has been more competitive than in years past, with Czechia handing tournament-favorite Canada their lunch on the first day of the tournament and Slovakia outplaying the Americans. Overall, most games have been competitive.

Fans watch through a different lens than scouts, who watch through a different lens than management personnel. While many fans are focused on the best players or their favorite team, scouts are primarily focused on draft-eligible players. It is used as a measuring-stick type of tournament, as are the world under-18s. How a player fares in international competition is likely to impact their draft stock. If I had a dollar for every time I heard some iteration of “But, Player X was no good at this tournament,” or “Player Y dominated and surprised me” as an argument for changing a team's draft list around, I’d have a fair chunk of change. But that’s a different article for a different day, probably around the U-18s.

NHL teams use the WJC as a measuring stick; a barometer, if you will. GMs don’t forget who pounded the table for who at the draft meetings and what was said, especially as it pertains to the first two rounds. If one scout went full-send for “his guy” and that guy has a poor showing - or worse, doesn't make the team - you can bet there will be questions. If a player you passed on outshines the player you picked, the scouting director is going to need to defend that. The same happens on the positive side. If you stick your neck out for a guy and he looks good, you’re going to look pretty good in the eyes of the GM.

With COVID impacting key development years of these players, the pressure was on the scouts to dig deep and project the best players of the future with increased ambiguity. The 2022 draft was even more challenging given the political climate in Russia, which made travelling there difficult for some. While Russia is not in this tournament, this is the first time teams will see how their draft selections fare against each other (I am not counting the summer tournament because it was the off-season and not a fair assessment). Furthermore, it is another opportunity for teams to gauge the progress of their 2021 selections.

When evaluating tournament play, just like fans, teams will look at the point totals. Thankfully, teams also go deeper than that; looking at whether the player impacts the game in key areas or has taken steps forward in habitual play. Player development staffers are key to ensuring the maximization of a player’s potential. Those people consistently communicate with prospects on their progress, act as sounding boards and keep them focused on their path. Each prospect is given some sort of development plan, and the WJC is a great opportunity to track the development against their peers. Oftentimes, prospects are given roles they are not necessarily accustomed to, and it is the job of the player development person to massage that into a positive and explain how it fits into the plan. A lot of these kids are used to first line, first power-play unit type minutes, and that can’t always happen at this level. Yes, teams will be concerned if their guy is not playing key minutes, but it will be used as an opportunity to see how the player reacts to adversity.

Let me walk you through an exercise that may take place in an NHL front office: The development plan for Player X is available for management and player development to see. Management, based on conversations with player development and the scouts will have certain expectations of where Player X will slot in the lineup and what role he is likely to play. The GM will be updated on Player X’s progress at various points leading up to the tournament and should have some idea of how the development is progressing. He may have questions about that progress that scouts or player development personnel will answer.

Throughout the tournament, all eyes will be on Player X. How does he look compared to last year? How does he compare to players we had in a similar range on the draft list? Has there been progression or regression in key areas of the plan? Why? Does the development timeline need to be adjusted based on performance or injury? How do we feel he performed against his peers and what are the next steps? Is he doing the things the team believes are necessary for him to succeed at the NHL level? All of these questions are part of the dialogue around each prospect.

This occurs during and after the tournament. At the same time, the player development personnel will communicate with Player X in a give-and-take dialogue. They will ask what Player X is seeing, how he feels the progress is going, positives and negatives, as well as any concerns or questions Player X may have. They will lay out key development expectations and how Player X can achieve them. The key points of that dialogue will be communicated to upper management and any concerns will be raised.

After the tournament, preliminary scouting meetings occur. While not an official topic, it is an opportunity to debrief on how prospects performed and what management’s expectations are going forward. It may also be a time to evaluate how the process of the past led you to the current situation and whether changes need to be made.

Development isn’t linear. One player might develop faster or slower than another. The knee-jerk reaction is to treat it like a race. It’s a marathon. The winner is not who has the best player in three years, it is who had the best NHL career 15 years from now. The annual holiday tournament is a good tool to measure progress against peers, but it does not make or break a player’s career. What’s most likely to come of it are conversations about thought processes and improvements to the development plans of each player, as well as the overall process. Teams are not throwing the baby out with the bath water or earmarking a guy for the first line next season over five to-seven games, and neither should fans. It is a bunch of kids playing hockey and making mistakes. The best part about this tournament is seeing the creativity and unbridled joy of these kids. Soon enough, some of them will be NHL players and some will not, but no one needs to make that decision now.