How Often Do NHL Teams and Players Make Peace Following Arbitration?

Arbitration hearings are now underway in the NHL, and there's a history of teams parting with their players not long after going this route.

It's still early, but the NHL's 2023 salary arbitration season is already shaping up as the most intriguing since before the pandemic.

Twenty-two players filed this year — a pretty typical number. But for the most part, players and teams strive to settle before their scheduled hearings whenever possible, to avoid permanently poisoning their relationship.

The memorandum of understanding, which extended the collective bargaining agreement in 2020, added one more incentive for sides to come to terms as soon as possible. Previously, the two sides could continue to negotiate after their hearing, right up till the moment the arbitrator delivered his verdict. Now, negotiations must cease as soon as a hearing begins.

In the first three years since that change was implemented, we saw just two hearings take place. 

In 2020, Tyler Bertuzzi saw his cap hit bumped from $1.4 million to $3.5 million after back-to-back 21-goal seasons with the Detroit Red Wings. And in 2022, Yakov Trenin went from the league minimum of $725,000 to a two-year deal at $1.7 million per season after putting up 17 goals and logging 14:40 a game as a rugged fourth-line fixture with the Nashville Predators.

This year, we saw two cases reach the hearing stage in the first two days of the summer arbitration window.

Swiss center Philipp Kurashev, 23, put up 25 points for the Chicago Blackhawks last season. According to Scott Powers of The Athletic, the Blackhawks offered $1.4 million on a two-year deal, while Kurashev's agent, Pat Brisson, countered at one year at $2.65 million.

In Toronto, there was a significant gap between the ask and the offer for goaltender Ilya Samsonov. 

The Maple Leafs signed Samsonov to a one-year deal with a $1.8 million cap hit as a free agent after the Washington Capitals declined to issue his $2 million qualifying offer one year ago. The 26-year-old then put up the best numbers of his career while playing more than half of Toronto's regular-season games: a 27-10-5 record with a .919 save percentage and 2.33 goals-against average.

As of July 22, eight other potential arbitration cases also remain unsettled, and they're all scheduled for the later portion of the arbitration window, between July 30 and August 4.

There are some interesting names on that list, including goaltenders Jeremy Swayman (BOS) and Filip Gustavsson (MIN) as well as forwards Trent Frederic (BOS), Troy Terry (ANA) and Ryan McLeod (EDM).

In her column earlier this week, Rachel Doerrie wrote about how P.K. Subban's 2014 arbitration hearing was a watershed moment in the relationship between the defenseman and the Montreal Canadiens — who then kept him for just two more years before trading him to the Nashville Predators two days before his full no-movement clause kicked in. 

Looking back through arbitration settlements over the last 15 years, the trend does lean toward teams moving on not long after an arbitration award.

Here are a couple of examples that illustrate how things can play out:

In 2019, Joel Edmundson went to arbitration immediately after the St. Louis Blues' Stanley Cup win. Coming off a one-year deal with a cap hit of $3 million — which he signed with the expectation that a long-term contract would eventually be forthcoming — he was awarded only a small raise to $3.1 million. 

Edmundson had just one year left on his contract before becoming a UFA, and Doug Armstrong elected not to extend Edmundson. After the arbitrator's award, Edmundson was dealt to Carolina Hurricanes during the 2019-20 pre-season as part of the package that brought back Justin Faulk, who the Blues promptly signed to a seven-year deal with a cap hit of $6.5 million. 

After a year in Carolina, Edmundson signed as a free agent with Montreal at a cap hit of $3.5 million. 

In 2018, 24-year-old defenseman Brett Kulak filed for arbitration. He'd just hit a career-high 71 NHL games with the Calgary Flames while playing on a two-way contract at the league minimum. 

Kulak was awarded a one-year, one-way deal at $900,000 by the arbitrator. But that was too rich for Brad Treliving's blood. 

After he cleared waivers on Oct. 1, Kulak was dealt to the Montreal Canadiens in exchange for Matt Taormina and Rinat Valiev. 

Neither new acquisition played a single NHL game for the Flames. Meanwhile, Kulak spent one more year moving back and forth to the minors before establishing himself as an NHL regular. When he was dealt to the Edmonton Oilers at the 2022 trade deadline, he netted the Canadiens the second-round draft pick they used on promising defense prospect Lane Hutson.

Kulak now averages more than 17 minutes a game on the Oilers blueline. He hit a career high of 20 points last season, at a cap hit of $2.75 million, which is perfectly reasonable for what he brings to the table.

While players and teams cut ties not long after an arbitration award, there are a handful of exceptions. 

In 2019, Andrew Copp saw his cap hit with the Winnipeg Jets bump up from $1 million to $2.28 million on a two-year deal from the arbitrator. He stuck around and filed again in 2021, then settled for a one-year contract at $3.64 million two weeks before that scheduled hearing.

By that point, however, it had become clear that Copp wanted to move on when he hit unrestricted free agency one year later. At the 2022 trade deadline, the Jets got a nice package from the New York Rangers that included the first-round pick that would become Brad Lambert. Then, Copp cashed in for five years at $5.625 million with the Detroit Red Wings that summer.

Back when negotiations could continue after arbitration hearings, there are also some examples where the sides did come to terms on long-term deals, and stayed together for several years afterward.

Victor Arvidsson jumped from $650,000 on his entry-level contract to a seven-year deal at $4.25 million after his 2017 arbitration hearing, then remained with Nashville for four seasons before being traded to the Los Angeles Kings. And Tyson Barrie went from $2.6 million to $5.5 million on a four-year deal after his hearing in 2016. He stayed with the Colorado Avalanche for three more years before being moved to Toronto as part of the Nazem Kadri swap.

Of course, sometimes players want to change their circumstances, which can also lead to arbitration situations. That's part of why the tool is included as part of the CBA.

The first example that comes to mind is Jacob Trouba — a Michigan native who wanted to return to the United States. 

Negotiations with Winnipeg were contentious from the get-go. Coming out of his entry-level contract, Trouba sat out for a month before finally coming to terms on a two-year deal on Nov. 7, 2016. When that contract ended, he got a one-year bump up to $5.5 million following his 2018 arbitration hearing. Then, set to file again, Trouba was dealt to the New York Rangers on June 17, 2019. With one year remaining before unrestricted free agency, he signed his current seven-year deal with a cap hit of $8 million.

As for Shea Weber — he may not necessarily have wanted to leave Nashville. But as he rose to the status of a perennial Norris Trophy finalist in the early 2010s, the Predators were still a small-market team that operated on a very tight budget — and didn't have the budget to pay Weber the star-level salary he deserved.

That led to an arbitration hearing in 2011, where Weber got a raise from $4.5 million to $7.5 million on a one-year deal. 

Then, with one year left before becoming a UFA, Weber took things a step further on July 19, 2012: He signed a 14-year offer sheet worth $110 million with the Philadelphia Flyers.

After reaching the second round of the playoffs for the first time in franchise history in the previous two seasons, the Predators elected to bite the bullet and match the offer sheet rather than accept the compensation package, which would have been in the neighborhood of four first-round draft picks. Weber got his money and stayed in Nashville for another four years before he was dealt to Montreal in exchange for Subban. 

And while Weber hasn't played since the 2021 playoffs, that contract is now on the books of the Arizona Coyotes. They record a cap hit of $7.8 million for each of the next three seasons while paying Weber just $1 million a year on an old-school back-diving contract — the kind that was outlawed following the 2012-13 lockout.