Few things in the NHL feel as automatic as the Edmonton Oilers on special teams this post-season.
Few things in the NHL feel as automatic as the Edmonton Oilers on special teams this post-season.
The probability of winning a hand of blackjack is 42.22 percent. Betting black at the roulette wheel yields a 47.4 percent probability. There's a 50 percent chance that if you took a coin out of your pocket and gave it a flip, it would land on heads.
Those odds are all dwarfed by the surest odds on the planet right now: the Edmonton Oilers on special teams.
The Oilers hold a 3-1 series lead over the Los Angeles Kings in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs, with Game 5 on Wednesday night.
As a whole, the series has been a tight affair at 5-on-5. The Oilers have only outscored the Kings 10-9 and hold a 47.11 percent expected goals share when the teams have played five-a-side hockey, according to naturalstattrick.com.
In this series, there have been rush chances generated, cycle chances generated, stifling defensive play in the dirty areas of the ice, stingy neutral zone defense and everything else one would expect in a series featuring two stylistically opposite teams.
The difference seemingly lies in the Oilers' scorching hot special teams. The Oilers currently possess the NHL playoffs' top power play and penalty kill.
Power Play
The Oilers seemingly have their way with the Kings when they have the man advantage, and L.A. deploys a penalty kill that ranked second in the NHL during the regular season behind only the Carolina Hurricanes.
The Oilers have gone 8-for-15 on the power play against the Kings. How are they making it look so easy?
Watching them on the power play is jaw-dropping, especially with how crisp, fluid, precise and powerful they are. Their top unit consists of Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman and Evan Bouchard. That unit consistently plays 1:30 to 1:45 of the two-minute power play or until they score, which is more often than not through four games.
What makes them so dangerous is how versatile and unpredictable their attacks are. All five players are in constant motion, especially McDavid, Draisaitl and Nugent-Hopkins.
With Bouchard at the top of the umbrella and Hyman at the net front, the three forwards perpetually shift, switch and weave from the left flank, right flank, bumper, and release position as the puck moves throughout the zone.
They have won nearly every faceoff to begin a power play and instantaneously set up in their initial 1-3-1 umbrella look. From that point, it's rapid puck and player movement as the five players ideally look to generate offense by attacking south or from the goal line.
Attacking from low in the zone with the speed of McDavid and the power of Draisaitl is a dangerous combination. Hyman thrives in the space around the net that's created from their magnetism, and Nugent-Hopkins finds seams where he can present himself as a passing option.
To oppose them, the Kings have been deploying a passive diamond on the penalty kill. They've been attempting to lock down the middle of the ice and keep the Oilers to the perimeter.
The Oilers have exploited the mismatches that occur low in the zone. The Kings have tried to adjust to a more aggressive style, and with his combination of speed and puckhandling ability, McDavid has been able to knife through the middle and find his teammates in the vacated ice.
In Game 4, the Kings gave the Oilers everything they had. They did everything right. They stayed out of the box as best they could and only took one penalty. On that penalty kill, the Kings did their best to eliminate the low options with Draisaitl and Hyman by leaving three players low. As they did that, McDavid was able to work the puck across the high slot to open up a passing lane from Draisaitl to Evan Bouchard, and the 82-point defenseman wired a one-timer for the lone goal of the game.
On the occasions when the Kings get to a loose puck and ice it, the Oilers can regain entry at will. McDavid forces opponents to respect his speed, so he typically has enough ice to work with to gain the offensive blueline. If the opponent can collapse on him, he finds a way to get the puck to Draisaitl, who uses his patience and puck protection ability to hold off defenders for enough time to find an open teammate and set up their umbrella.
Jim Hiller and the Los Angeles Kings have a tall order ahead of them if they're to slow down the Oilers' power play. They have as disciplined and diligent of a penalty kill as any team, so they have the means to, but on the brink of elimination, they'd better figure it out quickly.
Penalty Kill
The Kings have had a tough time generating any sort of dangerous looks on the power play through the first four games of the playoffs.
The Oilers' penalty kill ranked 15th in the NHL during the regular season but seemingly increased in intensity once the playoffs started.
The Kings have only managed 15 shots on goal on 11 power play opportunities, and they haven't posed much of a threat.
"They're doing a good job," Kings coach Jim Hiller said of the Oilers' penalty kill after Game 4. "When you're just not feeling it's going your way, you're probably pressing a little bit, you're not as relaxed and (not) letting plays happen."
The Oilers' penalty kill has been stifling at every turn. Los Angeles has had a tough time gaining the offensive blueline and is often forced to move the puck slightly before intended, causing several offside calls with a man advantage.
When set up, the Oilers deploy an aggressive wedge, pressuring the puck along the perimeter and eliminating the first option. With penalty-killing forwards like Nugent-Hopkins, Mattias Janmark, Ryan McLeod, Adam Henrique and Warren Foegele, the Kings are pressured and often sealed on the wall at the blueline with limited options.
The Oilers also have a couple of defensive pairs that make life difficult for their opponents, who try to get in front of the net as a screen or passing option. Vincent Desharnais, Cody Ceci, Mattias Ekholm and Darnell Nurse are efficient when called upon to clear the front of the net, box out or get to loose pucks low in the zone.
Jim Hiller and the Kings' power play must get creative to gain the offensive zone cleanly and become less predictable as they set up their power play in Game 5 of this series.
Looking Ahead
Edmonton poses a daunting climb when challenging a team to stop them with a man advantage or generate any meaningful opportunities when they have a man in the box.
If they do move on to the second round, they'll face either the Nashville Predators, which had the 16th-ranked power play (21.6 percent) in the NHL during the regular season and 22nd-ranked penalty kill (76.9 percent), or the Vancouver Canucks, which held the 11th-ranked power play (22.7 percent) and 17th-ranked penalty kill (79.1 percent).
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