How the Maple Leafs Used Tampa’s Playoff Playbook to Beat Them

If the Tampa Bay Lightning made the Cup final three straight times, they must be doing something right. The Toronto Maple Leafs figured them out.

At last. At long, long last. After nearly 7,000 days, the Toronto Maple Leafs have won a playoff series. 

I was eight years old the last time the Leafs won a playoff series. The team and their fan base have been the brunt of jokes for years. Crushing loss after crushing loss. Collapse after collapse. My cousin is a Cubs fan, and I remember watching him celebrate their 2016 World Series win. The Leafs are nowhere near there, but they beat the NHL’s best team over the last three years, and that is an accomplishment.

How did Toronto finally break the curse and overcome their first-round demons? They took a few pages from the Tampa Bay Lightning playoff success playbook. 

I put my analyst hat on and watched Toronto in this series to compare how they’ve played in previous years and, more importantly, how they played compared to how Tampa played in the past few playoffs.

Let’s get a few things out of the way. The Leafs outplayed the Lightning last year and probably deserved to win the series. They did not get the bounces or the key saves. This series was largely equal, if not slanting more in Tampa’s favor, but the Leafs got the bounces and the key saves. 

Tampa Bay was a year longer into their run, which comes with attrition. Making the Cup final three years in a row and multiple runs to the conference final before that will catch up with a team.

The attrition to Tampa’s back end was noticeable, starting with the salary cap casualty of Ryan McDonaugh. Add the loss of Erik Cernak in Game 1, and that is two of Tampa’s top four defensemen from the dynasty. 

The final nail on the back end was that of Victor Hedman. He only missed one game, but he was not his usual dominant self upon return. He was noticeably in pain throughout the series while logging heavy minutes and could not contribute the way he had in the past. Make no mistake; the loss of key defensive pieces played a major role in the outcome of this series.

However, the biggest difference this spring was the role reversal. 

In past years, the star Leafs were outplayed by their counterparts. That did not happen this time around. From Matthews to Rielly to Tavares, every one of the Leafs’ “Core Five” outplayed their Lightning counterparts. The five players paid the most to perform when it matters most performed at an elite level throughout the series. Key contributions from each core member at key times, be it Tavares’ series-clincher, Rielly’s tying goal in Game 4, or his OT-winner in Game 3, Toronto’s stars shone the brightest at the right time this spring. When the chips were down, they delivered. Nobody can overlook that.

That’s where the success playbook starts. Throughout its incredible run, Tampa’s superstars, from Victor Hedman to Nikita Kucherov to Brayden Point, were able to step up in crucial moments to deliver. 

This time, it was Matthews scoring big goals instead of Kucherov. It was Rielly stepping up instead of Hedman. It was Marner and Nylander besting Stamkos and Cirelli. It was John Tavares scoring the overtime-winner in Game 6 instead of Brayden Point. At every key moment, Toronto’s stars got the best of Tampa’s. If you’re going to win in the playoffs, your best players must be better than their best players, and they were.

Andrei Vasilevskiy’s run of not losing two straight games in the playoffs was astonishing. His ability to shut the door in elimination games may never be repeated. This time, Ilya Samsonov shut the door in critical moments, particularly in the clincher, where the Leafs looked nervous. His save percentage was modest, but the difference was his ability to make the key save, get a key whistle and allow the Leafs to play aggressively. 

James Reimer, Frederik Andersen nor Jack Campbell were capable of the pivotal saves in big moments to shift momentum. Andrei Vasilevskiy, Carey Price and Tuukka Rask outduelled them. Ilya Samsonov didn’t have to be Dominik Hasek – he just needed to be better than Andrei Vasilevskiy. In the important moments, he was. As a result, the Leafs did something almost no team has done in the last three years against the Lightning – they won the goaltending matchup.

A few key areas of gameplay contributed to the Bolts’ success over the years. They always came out of the gate strong, often scoring first and controlling the run of play in the first period. Starting on time and giving your goaltender a lead to play with is a much easier way to go about things than playing from behind. 

The Lightning mastered that throughout their run. In 71 playoff games from 2020 to 2022, Vasilevskiy put up a .928 save percentage and 2.09 goals-against average. If Tampa got ahead early, particularly by two, the game was usually over. 

This year, Toronto scored the first goal in four of the six games. Last year, Tampa scored first in five of the seven games. The Leafs opened the scoring more often than their opponent, something Tampa has thrived off of the past few years. They were rewarded for it.

Forechecking has been a significant part of Tampa’s success, too. In this series, the team who effectively established the forecheck and dictated the pace won. Tampa’s bottom six was particularly effective at setting the physical tone on the forecheck, taking the body at every opportunity and making life painful for defensemen. Their top six is filled with players who got on top of the breakout quickly and could easily turn pucks over. 

Establishing the forecheck is key because it takes away the opponent’s ability to exit their zone cleanly with speed. In transition, slowing an opponent down reduces the ability to create off the rush. Therefore, the number of scoring chances at speed lessens.

In the first game, Tampa established its forecheck, hemmed Toronto in and forced turnovers. The game was over quickly. The script flipped in the second game, and Toronto won handily. 

Toronto forced Tampa into 38 defensive zone turnovers at 5-on-5 in the series (6.3 per game). By comparison, Tampa had 91 defensive zone turnovers in all of last year’s playoffs (3.95 per game). 

About 70 percent of Tampa’s turnovers in the series were in the defensive zone, up from 50 percent last year. Toronto was able to get on top of Tampa’s defense core, who struggled to move the puck under pressure and turned pucks over to extend zone time possession. The Leafs could extend offensive zone possessions because of their ability to force turnovers. The defense could not handle the speed and tenacity of Toronto’s forwards, something other teams struggled to handle during Tampa’s Cup runs.

Further to defensive zone play, coaches love the buzzwords “kill plays early.” It sounds cliché, but killing plays in transition and sending the puck back the other way alleviates a lot of pressure. 

Defending is the most tiring part of gameplay, and the Lightning didn’t spend much time doing that during the Cup runs. Hedman, Cernak, McDonagh and Sergachev could stop the rush, cut players off and quickly transition up ice. However, Hedman and Sergachev, the only two who played meaningful minutes in this series, struggled to manage Toronto’s transition play, killing fewer plays. 

Conversely, Toronto was able to completely nullify Tampa’s stars off the rush. Point and Kucherov did not score at 5-on-5 in the series and had a combined five points in Games 2 through 6. Shutting the other team’s best players down at even strength, especially off the rush, is vital to success. Toronto won that battle by stepping up early, winning board battles and tracking back purposefully.

The last key to success is special teams. Ideally, you want your combined power play and penalty kill percentage above 100 percent. The Leafs’ power play was a measly 14.3 percent in last year’s playoffs. It was a concern entering the series, but the Leafs clicked at 28.6 percent on the power play this time around. Doubling your power-play success rate goes a long way in a playoff matchup where penalties are called sparingly. 

Tampa’s power play was 23.8 percent in the series, in line with previous years. The change came on the penalty kill. Tampa’s penalty kill struggled without Cernak and McDonagh this year, two penalty-kill pillars. Their penalty kill fell to 71.4 percent in 2023 from 78.1 percent last year and 82.9 percent from 2020 to 2022. 

Tampa’s combined special teams percentage from 2020 to 2022 was 107.6 percent. It was 95.2 percent against Toronto in this series, a massive difference. 

Toronto’s combined special teams percentage was 104.8 percent this year, up from 99 percent in 2020 to 2022 and 93.1 percent in 2022 alone against the Lightning.

The script flipped for Tampa and Toronto this year. So many of the things that made Tampa successful in previous years made Toronto successful this time. Tampa got a taste of its own medicine and could not manage due to injuries, attrition and salary cap casualties. Toronto added significant pieces in Ryan O’Reilly and Jake McCabe, who played key roles on special teams, the forecheck and in the defensive zone. They were positive difference-makers for Toronto and helped tilt the series in favor of the Leafs. 

The margin between success and failure is razor-thin in the playoffs, and the Maple Leafs were able to borrow from Tampa’s previous accomplishments to enjoy some success of their own.

It’s hard to put into words what this series win will mean for the city of Toronto. Fans shut down the entire transit system as the exorcism occurred. More importantly, the core of this Maple Leafs team, which Kyle Dubas refused to break up, repaid his faith in them with a series win. 

With the monkey off their back and the Boston Bruins no longer in their way, the sky is the limit for this team. 

However, the Panthers pose a formidable threat to the Leafs with their depth up front. If the Leafs can win the special teams battle and contain Florida’s, they should have the advantage in goal and star power. 

Their game plan worked to perfection in the first round. Their next test will be if they can consistently play this way as the weather gets warmer.