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    Janson Duench
    Janson Duench
    Mar 2, 2024, 20:47

    Sam Reinhart has already set a career high in goals as the Panthers push for a return to the Stanley Cup final.

    Sam Reinhart has already set a career high in goals as the Panthers push for a return to the Stanley Cup final.

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    It’s pretty easy to get caught up in Auston Matthews’ sensational and historic goal-scoring season.

    When someone is scoring at the third-highest clip in NHL history (minimum 500 games played) and is on pace for the most goals in a season in 31 years, that’s justified.

    But how about Sam Reinhart? Only Matthews had racked up more tallies this season than Reinhart.

    Reinhart's 41 goals so far easily eclipse his previous career high of 33 set in 2021-22. He’s also on pace to smash his benchmark of 82 points with 97 projected points.

    And while Thursday's two-goal outing against the Montreal Canadiens ended a seven-game drought, he still has 22 games to reach the elusive 50-goal mark as the Panthers chase the Eastern Conference title.

    Reinhart is setting himself up for a big payday, as the three-year, $19.5-million extension he signed in 2021 expires this summer.

    As David Dwork reported for The Hockey News' Panthers site in early February, Panthers GM Bill Zito has engaged in discussions with Reinhart about an extension, but the main focus right now is winning the Panthers’ first Stanley Cup.

    While Reinhart and Zito’s camps have expressed interest in an extension, nothing has been revealed about term or annual value.

    So, it’s fun to speculate how much the 28-year-old could command on the open market given his skill set.

    When’s the last time a player who finished top-three in goals became a UFA in the summer? What about a player who scored 50 goals and 90 points?

    It's unheard of in recent memory. Reinhart testing the open market would have teams salivating, even though he’s “only” averaged 25 goals and 55 points over his first eight full seasons.

    But his scoring this season is backed up by the league’s third-highest expected goals and sixth-best expected goals per 60 minutes, per moneypuck.com, albeit with an unsustainable 25.3-percent shooting percentage.

    There’s also the suggestion that Reinhart has been a power-play merchant this season, as he’s scored a league-leading 23 goals with the man advantage, eight more than Edmonton’s Leon Draisaitl, Vancouver's Boeser and Matthews in second place.

    But given his above-average finishing ability and big minutes, it’s fair to predict that Reinhart could remain an effective goal-scorer into his 30s.

    It also helps that Reinhart plays on the penalty kill and is far from a one-dimensional player.

    If he were to extend with Florida, it’s difficult to envision him taking any more than the $10 million that captain Aleksander Barkov and goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky earn annually.

    The Panthers have several key UFAs to take care of this summer, including Brandon Montour, Gustav Forsling and most of the bottom-six forward group.

    They also have Sam Bennett and Carter Verhaeghe to deal with next summer, who will both command significant raises over their current salaries.

    So if Zito is to hand out a long-term deal, it will likely have to fit somewhere between Aaron Ekblad and Matthew Tkachuk’s $7.5-million and $9.5-million cap hits, respectively.

    In July 2023, The Athletic estimated Reinhart provided the Panthers $2.6 million in surplus value on his $6.5 million average annual value, which would bring him to $9.1 million.

    Reinhart threatens to squeeze the Panthers’ budget as it stands, but he could demand even more with a deep playoff run.

    His future depends on the success of his team.