Could Matthews Eventually Surpass The Goal Records Of Ovechkin And Gretzky?

By Ella Tsotsos, The Hockey News Intern

Alex Ovechkin’s chase of Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goal record has captivated the hockey world, but could Auston Matthews one day emerge as the NHL’s greatest scorer? While Ovechkin continues his quest to surpass Gretzky – he's currently just seven goals away from beating Gretzky's career goals record – Matthews has quietly positioned himself as a future contender to rewrite the record books.

Matthews is one of the NHL’s premier goal-scorers, with a unique blend of skill and finishing ability. At 27 years old, he’s already scored nearly 400 goals and has the potential to average 50-60 goals annually for the next several years. If Matthews can maintain that pace, he could reach 600 goals by his early 30s, putting him within striking distance of Ovechkin and Gretzky. In 2023-24, Matthews scored 69 times to top Ovechkin’s 21st-century record of 65 goals in a season. To be sure, Matthews has a lot of work to do in order to one day pass Ovechkin, but it’s within the realm of possibility.

Matthews is scoring at a pace of 0.64 goals per game through nearly nine seasons. That’s about 52 goals per year if Matthews stays healthy and plays all 82 games – which, granted, is a bit of a leap of faith considering that the Maple Leafs sniper has averaged about 70 games per season over the course of his career. But, if Matthews can stay mostly healthy to avoid injuries and maintain his scoring pace, it is possible that he could surpass Ovechkin and Gretzky.

However, it's not all about Matthews’ pace. Ovechkin, despite being 39 and in his 20th NHL season, is still scoring at an impressive clip and his NHL career could stretch into his early 40s. He’ll likely have well over 900 goals before retiring from the NHL – and perhaps returning to the KHL to close out his career with Dynamo Moscow – making it even more difficult for Matthews to chase him down.

Obviously, age will be a factor for both players. As Matthews enters and progresses through his 30s, his goal output will likely dip, especially if injuries continue to impact his consistency. The fact that Matthews has had some injury issues, combined with Ovechkin’s resilience and his extended career, could tip the scale in Ovechkin’s favor.

In the end, it might not be a matter of Matthews surpassing Ovechkin but whether Matthews can stay healthy, maintain his high level of play and avoid the inevitable decline that comes with age. If he can navigate those obstacles, the door could remain open for Matthews to not only challenge Ovechkin but potentially eclipse both Ovechkin and Gretzky for the NHL’s ultimate goal-scoring crown.

For now, Ovechkin’s chase of Gretzky is the headline, but Matthews' potential to join or even surpass both of them keeps the next chapter of hockey history wide open.

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