NHL 4 Nations Face-Off: Who Has The Most To Lose?

The return of NHL players to best-on-best international competition offers a fresh platform for the game’s stars to shine. But in sports, every winner also creates a loser, and the stakes are high at the 4 Nations Face-Off.

Many of the participants are fired up to finally be playing top-level international hockey for the first time in their careers. Everything that happens over the next 10 days could ripple into the decisions that are made when teams name their rosters for the big show in 2026: the Winter Olympics in Italy.

From GMs to coaches to players and even an NHL team, here are the five hockey forces with the most to lose if this event doesn’t break their way.

Don Sweeney, Team Canada GM

In international hockey, it’s always gold or bust for Canada. Just look at the fallout from the last two world junior tournaments. Hockey Canada is now re-making its management structure after a pair of quarterfinal flameouts and bringing in a full-time GM for its Program of Excellence. 

So Don Sweeney’s mandate is clear for this tournament, but the international landscape has become more competitive since the 2016 World Cup of Hockey. It’s not hard to argue that Team USA has come into Montreal as the favorite to win.

With Doug Armstrong set to take the GM reins for the 2026 Olympic team, this is a one-time opportunity for Sweeney to show that he’s got the right stuff.

If Canada doesn’t win or reach the championship game, the second-guessing on Sweeney’s roster selections will begin in earnest. Goaltending is the biggest question mark, but other decisions could also draw ire if the Red and White don’t prevail.

Mike Sullivan, Team USA Coach

From top to bottom and especially in net, the American roster looks the strongest. But history isn’t on the side of Team USA, which hasn’t prevailed in a senior men's international competition since Keith Tkachuk wreaked havoc as the penalty minutes leader at the fearsome 1996 World Cup of Hockey.

Now, Keith’s sons, Matthew and Brady Tkachuk, will be front and center as the Americans look to pull off a home-ice triumph back in Boston, where Keith grew up.

Bill Guerin’s roster choices have stood up well to scrutiny. But coach Mike Sullivan  now has the tricky task of deploying his players most effectively. If the U.S. team falters, he’ll catch the lion’s share of the criticism. 

Pittsburgh Penguins

It has now been nearly eight years since Sullivan hoisted his second-straight Stanley Cup with the Penguins. Despite a roster that has continued to feature some of hockey's top stars, Pittsburgh has won just one playoff round since that 2017 championship and is on the brink of a third-straight playoff miss.

While Alex Pietrangelo and the injured Quinn Hughes chose to prioritize their NHL club team when they elected not to join Team Canada and Team USA, respectively, Sidney Crosby elected to join Canada even though he’d missed a couple of Penguins games with health issues of his own.

Crosby’s loyalty to his country is unquestionable — and no one has ever questioned his loyalty to Pittsburgh, either. But in this case, the maple leaf won out. 

The Penguins’ playoff hopes may be dim, but Sullivan will be crossing his fingers that he’ll get his captain back in one piece to ride out the stretch run when the regular NHL schedule resumes.

Auston Matthews, Team USA Captain

Less than six months after he was named captain of the Toronto Maple Leafs, Matthews is now wearing the ‘C’ for his national team. 

There’s no doubt that the 27-year-old is one of the NHL’s best goal-scorers and the most important cog in the Leafs’ machine. But Matthews is still looking for the first big win of his career and is the only 4 Nations captain who isn't coming in with at least one Stanley Cup ring.

This year, even the scoring hasn’t been automatic. Matthews is another player who elected to join his national team, although injury struggles have slowed him down this season, and he didn't score in his last six games before the break.

Matthews and his Toronto teammates have not yet shown they can bring what’s needed when the pressure ramps up in the Stanley Cup playoffs. That criticism will resurface if he or his team underperforms in this tournament.

Juuse Saros, Finland Goaltender

As the only goaltender named among the first six for any 4 Nations roster, Juuse Saros was presumed to have the inside track as Finland’s No. 1 netminder.

But after practice on Tuesday, Finnish coach Antti Pennanen declined to name his starter for his team’s opener on Thursday against the powerful United States.

It may be nothing, but Saros hasn’t played up to his Vezina finalist standard this season. His save percentage is a pedestrian .899, he’s at minus-3.5 goals saved above expected per moneypuck.com, and his 23 losses with the Nashville Predators are the most of any NHL goalie this season.

By contrast, his former partner Kevin Lankinen is at .905 and plus-1.6 goals saved above expected with the Vancouver Canucks. Based on the stats, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen could also be in the mix at minus-1.0 goals saved above expected and .895 with the Buffalo Sabres.

Major injuries on defense, including to Miro Heiskanen, will make the task at hand tough for the Finns, no matter which goalie gets the nod. In the past, they've found ways to punch above their weight on the international stage by playing a tight, disciplined team game. But if Saros bombs out or is left on the bench, it’ll be another disheartening outcome for him in what has already been a difficult year.

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