NHL Draft Mailbag: Who Will Be the Best of the 2023 Class in Five Years?

Tony Ferrari's final NHL draft rankings recently came out, and he now tackles questions on Leo Carlsson, Matvei Michkov, a Will Smith comparable and more.

The 2023 NHL draft is just weeks away at this point, and the buzz is beginning to pick up. That means that the questions from hockey fans are beginning to come in hot and heavy, from wondering who would be a good fit for their favorite team to who might be the riskiest pick in the draft.

My final ranking for the 2023 NHL draft is out now, and I asked for your best questions. As always, you didn’t disappoint, with a variety of questions on various aspects of the draft class. So let’s get to them and answer some of the best ones. Questions have been lightly edited for clarity.

Eric asks: Which two or three players do you think will be drafted in spots most divergent from your rankings and why?

Colby Barlow was at the end of my first round (31), but I fully expect him to be drafted inside the top 20 because of his goal-scoring numbers and the fact that he’s a physically mature OHLer. CHLers are always overvalued, and he likely would have hit 50 goals had he not been injured toward the end of the season.

Matthew Wood is in my second round (37), and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him selected in the top 10 picks in June. His skating is a real issue, in my opinion, and he is a decent second or third fiddle, getting to spots and finishing. But he lacks the play-driving ability and the high-level skill and pace that is needed at the NHL level.

Timur Mukhanov is in the opposite situation. I have him ranked at 22, but I’ve heard that some teams may not have him on their list at all because of his size. He looked more than capable at the VHL level this season, and his tendency to play outside to inside is usually something that NHL scouts are interested in. He has a ton of skill, plays at a high pace, shows intelligence and looks like a pro. Size, the Russian factor (deserved or not), and other non-talent reasons could be a reason why he is a mid-round flyer instead of a reasonably high pick.

Austin asks: Which player are you higher on than consensus that you’d bet you’re right on, and which player are you lower on than consensus that you think you could be wrong on?

Gavin Brindley is at 26 on the eliteprospects.com consensus board, whereas I have him at 12. I have full confidence that he has the skill, work rate, tenacity and 200-foot game that will translate to the NHL in a middle-six role at worst.

Matthew Wood is the player I am curious as to how he plays out. If he’s put in the right situation and allowed to be a complementary player with a high-end play-driver, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him become a productive NHLer. It will take the perfect situation, but it certainly could happen.

Chris asks: What do you think of Leo Carlsson being the best player from the draft class in five years? I love his intelligence and vision. Do you think he could get there?

I would love to see this happen, but I think it would be a tall task. Connor Bedard is going to be unreal, I think that’s safe to say. He’d have to wildly disappoint. Adam Fantilli could be one of the best No. 2 picks in the last couple of decades and would challenge for first overall in a lot of draft classes. Matvei Michkov’s upside is insane, and he could be an offensive juggernaut.

Leo Carlsson could be a No. 1 center in the NHL and still be the fourth-best player in the draft class. That’s how good the top end of this group is. With that said, Carlsson has a fantastic toolset, and it wouldn’t shock me if he was the second-best player in the class. At the moment, I'm ranking Bedard first, then Fantilli, Michkov and Carlsson in order.

Jordan asks: Who’s the player in your top 10 that is the most likely to not make an impact at the NHL level?

Zach Benson might be the answer here. His intelligence has made him one of the most cerebral players in the CHL and allowed him to be the offensive catalyst on an unreal Winnipeg Ice team. With that said, his skating is average, and he is undersized, which will accentuate that issue. He should be able to upgrade his skating, but if he doesn’t, he may wind up being an AHL all-star.

Union and Blue ask: For Columbus, which center projects higher - Leo Carlsson or Will Smith?

For me, Leo Carlsson is ahead here. He’s a safer player, a more projectable center, and his production upside is as high or higher. Will Smith is flashier, more entertaining to watch and could be a dynamic presence that Columbus hasn’t really had since Artemi Panarin, but you’ve got Kent Johnson for that. The other factor here is there is a reality in which Smith winds up on the wing. I take Carlsson regardless of the position you see these guys playing, but especially if you’re looking for a center.

Brian asks: Connor Bedard is an amazing talent, but is anyone concerned that his size might not play at the NHL level? Is it even worth being a concern?

Sure, there’s always someone who will question a player of Bedard’s size. They’d be silly when it comes to Bedard, but the questions exist. Bedard is an incredible talent and will have no problem being a highly effective NHLer almost immediately.

Cam asks: Is the Michkov ranking based a good amount on the Russian factor? If he could play next year in the NHL, where would he rank?

For me personally, the “Russian Factor” played no role. I evaluate based on talent first and foremost. Most picks in the three-to-10 range take at least two years to get to the NHL and make an impact in the best-case scenario. Waiting one extra season for a rebuilding club could just mean Michkov walks into the NHL and puts up big numbers right away on an entry-level contract for a few seasons. If I’m not in a rush with my rebuild or I’m just getting started, Michkov would be a massive grab for anyone from third to 10th overall.

K asks: What will happen to Matvei Michkov? When can he leave Russia? Will he leave Russia?

I think Michkov falls a bit, still picked in the top 10. If I had to guess, someone trades up to seven and takes him right before Washington gets the chance to. The uber-talented Russian is going to go to a team who is OK with waiting and will likely get a star in a couple of years.

Let’s get to second and third parts of this question. When can he leave? His contract runs through the 2025-26 season. He could leave earlier if his KHL club (currently SKA St. Petersburg) agree to it, but why would they? It’s been done for lesser players, but Michkov is a potential superstar.

Will he leave? There has been no indication that he won’t come over to North America. Michkov is a star player, and he will likely want to play against the best in the world. It’s just going to take a couple of years.

Chris asks: What do you make of Aram Minnetian? Can he be a second-pair defenseman?

Minnetian is an interesting player. He has the tools and the willingness to pinch, attack up ice and play a free-wheeling game. Sometimes, however, he doesn’t choose the exact right time to do so. His tools aren’t elite, but he is a very good skater, a solid passer and a willing and able shooter. His upside is that of a second-pair transitional blueliner who is able to play a capable game at both ends of the ice but excels in transition offensively and defensively. That will make him a very valuable yet likely underappreciated blueliner.

Rohan asks: Can you please predict who the Wings take at ninth overall, Dr. Ferrari? Thank you.

Oliver Moore. Feels like a good fit stylistically and fits the vibe of an Yzerman pick.

A sad pug asks: What is Will Smith's closest comparable player, projection-wise? What are his odds of getting there if you were a Vegas oddsmaker?

I feel like there are elements of Trevor Zegras in Smith’s game. He has impressive puck skill, lightning-quick agility with the puck on his stick and the ability to pull off a bunch of moves that other players wouldn’t try outside of a pickup game.

The odds that he gets to that level, I’d put at 70 percent. There is a good chance that Smith is a very good top-six forward, but whether he’s able to reach the entertainment and skill level is a question. The production may be quite similar, but Smith may have to adjust his style a bit to get there.

A lot of you asked: Jacob Fowler? Where is he on your ranking?

When you make a mistake, it’s best to own up to it. Not ranking Youngstown netminder Jacob Fowler in my top 100 was just that, a mistake. He is a very good goaltender who has been the backbone of a championship-winning team. His .952 save percentage in the post-season was unreal.

The 6-foot-2 netminder moves well in net and did a fantastic job of playing at a high level with a large workload. If I slid him into the rankings now, he would slot in just ahead of Scott Ratzlaff in the early 70s. I apologize for his exclusion. Please stop yelling at me on Twitter.