With NHL free agency opening on Saturday, this off-season has already seen a large dose of cap-strapped teams making moves. What does that mean for the future?
Kailer YamamotoA million dollars doesn't go as far as it once did.
It's true in real estate. It's also true in the NHL, where GMs are tying themselves in knots as they try to ensure their clubs will be cap compliant when they submit their opening rosters on Oct. 9, one day before the regular season begins.
On Wednesday, the league officially confirmed what was widely expected: the salary cap ceiling will rise by $1 million next season to a maximum of $83.5 million. The midpoint is $72.6 million, and the cap floor will be $61.7 million.
By next spring, the players should have paid off what's left of their escrow debt from the pandemic — when they still received their full salaries even though hockey-related revenues shriveled due to lost games and attendance restrictions.
By the time we get to draft week in 2024, maybe we'll be back to the thrills and spills of 2016 when top-tier stars like P.K. Subban, Shea Weber and Taylor Hall were moved in franchise-altering hockey trades within hours of each other.
Even Subban's second trade, to New Jersey, came during a busy 2019 draft which also saw J.T. Miller dealt from Tampa Bay to Vancouver and a long list of draft-pick swaps. And while the Lightning needed to move out Miller in order to free up cap space, they still got a nice return that included a first-round draft pick.
Nowadays, the pool of GMs with the means to throw life preservers to their peers is pretty small. Those who are in that position are well aware they can improve their teams without giving up significant assets.
Sharp Steve Yzerman sits comfortably at that table. On Thursday, he picked up two former first-round picks who each have a nose for the net and are under 25 — for future considerations.
The Edmonton Oilers needed to get out from Kailer Yamamoto's contract — a two-year deal with a cap hit of $3.1 million, which was signed after the 22nd pick from 2017 put up 20 goals and 41 points in the 2021-22 season.
Klim Kostin was taken 31st in that same draft by the St. Louis Blues and was a nice fit in Edmonton. Acquired in a low-stakes trade at the beginning of last season, he was affable, physical and scored some highlight-reel goals. But after playing out the year at the league minimum salary of $750,000 and putting up 21 points, Kostin is now an RFA with arbitration rights who's in line for a raise.
On his own, he wouldn't have broken the bank in Edmonton. But he may have been the sweetener the Red Wings requested when agreeing to take on Yamamoto — while Ken Holland preps for negotiations this summer with RFAs Ryan McLeod and Evan Bouchard.
McLeod's a 23-year-old center with arbitration rights, while Bouchard is coming off his entry-level contract. But GMs have learned that if they sign future stars to a short-term bridge deal now, the price will be much higher when the next bargaining session rolls around.
Furthermore, the large cap bumps that are expected to start next season could trigger hyperinflation, which would see the asking price for a top-end blueliner like Bouchard springboard into a different stratosphere in two or three years. You can bet that agent David Gagner will be bringing that knowledge to the bargaining table and setting his asking price for a long-term deal accordingly.
Over in Chicago, Kyle Davidson stripped down his roster last season to try to get into position for Connor Bedard — and it worked. All told, he added 11 draft picks to his system this week. He has also started to build out his roster.
On Monday, Davidson picked up 2018 Hart Trophy winner Taylor Hall from the Boston Bruins, along with the rights to former Columbus Blue Jackets captain Nick Foligno. He then promptly signed the 35-year-old impending UFA to a one-year deal worth $4 million, a little more than the $3.8-million cap hit Foligno carried in Boston for the last two seasons.
Davidson also gets two more years of Hall at $6 million, a cap hit that Boston didn't want to carry even though the 31-year-old had a strong showing in the playoffs, with eight points in seven games.
On Thursday, Davidson also picked up the rights to Corey Perry from the Tampa Bay Lightning in exchange for a seventh-round pick. Perry knows Blackhawks coach Luke Richardson from Montreal's 2021 run to the Stanley Cup final, and Davidson is expected to bring him under contract for one year at $4 million before he hits the open market.
Also on Thursday, Davidson helped the New York Islanders do some salary cap cleanup. The Blackhawks received a 2026 second-round pick to acquire Josh Bailey and then place him on unconditional waivers for purposes of a buyout. Bailey, 33, had one year remaining at a cap hit of $5 million, with $3.5 million in real salary owed to him.
The Blackhawks will pay $2.33 million in real money over the next two years and sacrifice nearly $4 million in total cap space over the same time frame, according to PuckPedia. In doing so, Davidson has very literally answered the question, "What's a second-round pick worth?"
This year's first buyout window closes on Friday at 5 p.m. ET. With teams so cautious about accruing dead cap space, the option has not been popular this year. In 2021, as the first realities of the flat cap were taking hold, nine players were bought out, including the monster deals of Zach Parise and Ryan Suter in Minnesota. This year, just four buyouts have occurred — Bailey, Zack Kassian and Patrik Nemeth in Arizona, where there's cap space to burn, and Oliver Ekman-Larsson in Vancouver.
That deal will cost the Canucks more than $17 million in real money over the next eight years and more than $20 million in total cap space. But because of how Ekman-Larsson's contract was structured, the Canucks gain more than $7 million for the upcoming 2023-24 season — space they desperately needed as they were already over $83.5 million in commitments even before the summer signing season begins.
So what will free agency look like this year?
We've heard grumbling that there isn't much high-end talent available, which makes sense. The representatives for top players have been maneuvering with the knowledge that this would be a tough summer to negotiate when teams wouldn't have much capacity to commit to meaningful deals.
The market could be buoyed by a few last-minute additions. Same as the buyout window, the deadline for teams to submit qualifying offers to their RFAs is this Friday at 5 p.m. ET.
Players left unqualified immediately become UFAs — able to take their services wherever they please, starting on Saturday.
Expect to see some good players with strong potential arbitration cases end up unqualified, igniting the fireworks for the Canada Day festivities.