Despite making it to the second round for the first time since 2003-04, the Maple Leafs' players and personnel know that they must do even better in the upcoming season. Coach Sheldon Keefe is one team member under the most pressure to succeed, writes Adam Proteau.

The NHL’s 2023 off-season is nearing its end, but this ongoing THN.com Hot Seat series remains active. In the series, we’re analyzing the different pressures felt by each NHL team’s players, coaches, GMs and team owners.

Moving through the league’s teams in alphabetical order, we’re pointing out one player, coach, GM or team owner as someone on their team’s hot seat, dealing with serious pressure to generate excellent results this coming season, or wind up in the organization’s doghouse; a second NHL player, team owner, coach or GM will go on the warm seat as an individual not likely to be fired or traded anytime soon, but who might be moved on from sometime next year; and a third player, coach, team owner or GM will be on the cold seat as someone highly likely to remain with their team for a very long time.

Maple Leafs’ Hot Seat: Sheldon Keefe, Coach

After the departure of former GM Kyle Dubas, all heads turned toward Keefe, who this coming season is entering the final year of his contract as coach of the Leafs. Keefe agreed to a two-year contract extension back in October of 2021, but not even the fact he led Toronto to the second round for the first time since 2003-04 got Keefe a new contract.

With new Leafs GM Brad Treliving coming aboard, Keefe has a new group of assistant coaches, including Guy Boucher and Mike Van Ryn, this season. Some might say Keefe’s successor to the job is one of those two guys, but if the Leafs thrive throughout the year, Treliving will have to keep Keefe around. And if Toronto doesn’t make it beyond the second round, Keefe will be replaced.

The stakes couldn’t be higher for Keefe, a thoughtful guy who definitely knows it’s a make-or-break year for him. A long playoff run will assure Keefe he’ll still be behind the bench in Toronto. Anything less than that will push him out of the organization.

Maple Leafs’ Warm Seat: William Nylander, RW

He likes to be coy with the media, but Nylander is keenly aware of his status with the Leafs. Unless the 27-year-old is willing to sign for less than $10 million per season, it’s very probable that Treliving will deal him for an upgrade on defense. If he signs for less than that, Nylander will stay in the fold. It’s that simple.

Nobody doubts Nylander has earned himself a significant raise from the $6.96-million salary he earned last season. But if Auston Matthews signed for a raise of 'only' approximately $1.3 million, even with some improved valuation for Nylander, he should come in around the $9 million per season mark. The salary cap will rise significantly for the 2024-25 campaign, and the Leafs should have enough cap space to retain Nylander at approximately $9 million.

Nylander can make things easy on himself by getting a deal done before the season begins, or he can take his chances and wait until mid-season to sign a new contract. But if he goes the latter route, he’s risking the possibility Treliving trades him. Nylander has a modified no-trade clause that allows him to specify 10 teams he can’t be moved to, but that still leaves 21 teams Treliving can deal him to. The ball is in his court.

Maple Leafs’ Cold Seat: John Tavares, C

Some might suggest Matthews has the 'coldest' seat in Toronto now that he has his contract extension, but in the short term, it’s Tavares who is most secure as a Leaf for the next two seasons at an $11 million per season cap hit. Tavares also has a full no-trade clause in his deal, and the 32-year-old is fully intent on finishing his contract with the Leafs.

There aren’t any teams interested in trading for Tavares at this point. Is he relatively overpaid? Sure, but many free agents on many teams wind up being overpaid. It will be more intriguing to see whether Tavares takes a huge pay cut on his next contract, the same way Boston Benefitted from star centers Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci playing for next to nothing. Tavares has made a lot of money in his 14 NHL seasons, and he could do the Leafs a huge favor by agreeing to play for half of his $11-million cap hit or less in a contract extension.

For now, at least, Tavares is guaranteed to be a Leaf for the next two seasons and he’s the captain in Toronto for good reason. He never gets flustered, he’s always accountable to the media, and he’s a thoughtful teammate who never fails to make good decisions on and off the ice – and while the Leafs probably would love to have him for the remainder of his career, the money needs to be right for them to do so.