The Pittsburgh Penguins want to go for a Stanley Cup as long as they have Crosby, Malkin and Letang in the lineup. Right now, they're all-in just to qualify for the playoffs, writes Adam Proteau.
This is the newest file in THN.com’s “off-season outlook” series, in which we analyze every NHL team’s recent season, as well as its strengths and weaknesses entering the 2023-24 campaign. We’ve been focusing on teams in alphabetical order, and today, our attentions are on the Pittsburgh Penguins.
2022-23 Grade: C
Biggest Positive Heading Into the Off-Season
Penguins superstar Sidney Crosby is not a one-man show, but when you have him on your roster, making the playoffs is the base standard for your group. When you have Crosby and fellow star forward Evgeni Malkin on your roster, you should be winning post-season rounds, never mind just making the playoffs. And when you have Crosby, Malkin and defensive cornerstone Kris Letang on your team…well, let’s just say that missing the playoffs is a shameful catastrophe.
But that’s where the Pens wound up in 2022-23, one measly win out of the final Eastern Conference wild-card berth.
Nineteen of Pittsburgh’s losses last season were decided by one goal, but a whopping 23 of their 31 regulation losses were decided by two goals or more. When their goaltending wasn’t decent, the rest of the lineup was exposed as too inconsistent to help propel the Pens into the playoffs.
So, what were the ramifications of such a letdown? Let us count the ways:
Firstly, GM Ron Hextall and president of hockey operations Brian Burke were fired and replaced for now with former Maple Leafs GM Kyle Dubas.
Dubas then re-committed to the Penguins’ aged core talents and brought in a slew of secondary talents, similar to how Dubas worked in Toronto. Although he re-signed No. 1 goaltender Tristan Jarry to a massive contract extension – and in the process doubled down on the netminding tandem of Jarry and backup Casey DeSmith – Dubas made notable moves at the defense and forward position. He first traded for longtime Vegas Golden Knights forward Reilly Smith, then signed Lars Eller, Noel Acciari, Matt Nieto, Andreas Johnsson and Vinnie Hinostroza to improve their forward group. Dubas also signed D-man Ryan Graves to add size and snarl to the back end.
If that sounds like a lot, that’s because it is. The major turnover in the lineup gives the Penguins no excuses to miss the playoffs for the second consecutive season, but they’re one of the older teams in the NHL, and the Metropolitan Division they operate in is not going to be charitable to them in terms of wins and losses.
They have to make hay while the sun shines – and, fortunately for them, they have a few suns that can help them shine brighter than they might’ve on a team that doesn’t have Crosby, Malkin and Letang.
Biggest Need Heading Into the Off-Season
Per PuckPedia, the Penguins are completely capped-out – in fact, they’re $1.51 million over the cap ceiling – so further moves aren’t likely to come until the season begins.
If they need anything other than better secondary scoring and a tighter defensive approach, it’s more youth. Ten of Pittsburgh’s projected top 12 forwards are at least 30 years old. That’s about as creaky as it gets in hockey’s top league, but the Pens’ inability to draft and develop foot soldiers and worker bees has forced Dubas’ hand into paying market prices for UFA veterans.
We’re still of the mind, as we have been for a few years now, that Jarry and DeSmith aren’t the best netminding duo in their division, let alone the league. DeSmith posted a .905 save percentage and 3.17 goals-against average in 38 games this past season, both notable drops in performance from his 2021-22 numbers (.914 SP, 2.79 GAA). And Jarry’s '22-23 individual numbers of a .909 SP and 2.90 GAA also were letdowns from the previous season (.919 SP, 2.42 GAA).
Even if the defense is more rugged, what’s the solution if the goaltending goes wobbly again? You can’t trade Jarry after signing him to a long-term extension, but DeSmith is in the final year of his contract. While Dubas signed former Red Wings goalie Alex Nedejkovic for depth purposes, we wouldn’t be surprised to see Dubas change things up at the backup goalie spot if DeSmith and Nedejkovic don’t pan out.
Otherwise, they need the new forwards to deliver at both ends of the ice, and if they don’t, Pittsburgh could be looking at the unthinkable by the end of 2023-24.
Bottom Line for Pittsburgh This Off-Season
As noted above, it’s a blessing for Pittsburgh to have had Crosby, Malkin and Letang all these years, but as we saw last season, even their herculean talents couldn’t drag the Pens’ carcass over the finish line and at least have a shot in the Stanley Cup tournament.
Let’s say, for argument’s sake, they outlasted the eighth-seeded Florida Panthers and made it into the playoffs – it’s still very hard to see them beating Boston in the first round, never mind going on to win the Eastern Conference final. The Pens simply didn’t have enough quality depth to get them there.
Dubas took the Penguins' president of hockey operations job knowing he’d be bringing back the core, but that’s no assurance things will improve for them this time around. They do need good luck with the injury bug, but they also have to be significantly better in their own zone, and as we all ought to know by now, that’s much easier said than done.
This could be a one-last-gasp kind of year, or worse – a no-more-gasps type of season. The stakes are high for Pittsburgh, and they need all hands on deck and functioning well if they’re going to rebound from the disappointment of 2022-23.