The Ottawa Senators had their best season in years, but it wasn't good enough, writes Adam Proteau. Next year is playoffs or bust.
This is the latest file in THN.com’s “off-season outlook” series, in which we break down each NHL team’s recent season in addition to their strengths and weaknesses heading into 2023-24. We’ve been looking at teams in alphabetical order, and today, we’re analyzing the Ottawa Senators.
2022-23 Grade: C+
Biggest Positive Heading Into the Off-Season
There’s no hiding the fact the Senators underachieved in 2022-23. They missed the playoffs for the sixth consecutive season, and although they did have a large bite taken out of them by the injury bug, five of their top six forwards played at least 78 games. Accountability means their core has to own the letdown, and nothing short of a post-season appearance in 2023-24 will keep the jobs of GM Pierre Dorion and coach D.J. Smith safe this coming year.
The good news is that Dorion went out and used much of his salary cap space (as per PuckPedia) to address the Sens’ weaknesses this spring.
Most notably, Dorion signed veteran goalie Joonas Korpisalo to a five-year, $20-million deal that cements him as Ottawa’s starting netminder until further notice. Anton Forsberg will serve as Korpisalo’s understudy between the pipes, and Senators brass is hoping the team’s defense corps – which will be better in its first full year after trade deadline acquisition Jakob Chychrun arrived in town – will make the goalies’ lives considerably easier.
There has been much speculation about the future of Sens sniper Alex DeBrincat in Ottawa, with many people presuming he’ll be traded before the season begins. Dorion has to make a DeBrincat trade work for the Senators first and DeBrincat second. His job could depend on it. But in the meantime, Sens fans should be optimistic about the state of the team entering 2023-24. There’s a lot of excellent young talent, a few key veterans and some prospects still finding their feet as NHLers, and the pressure is now squarely on Smith to make it all work. There’s a solid talent base intact, and that’s more than many teams can boast of.
Biggest Need Heading Into the Off-Season
With their defense and goaltending firmed up, the Sens have approximately $8.28 million in cap space. Most of that will have to go to RFA DeBrincat or his replacement in a trade, as well as the salary of RFA youngster Shane Pinto.
It will be a tight squeeze for Dorion, but he has to make Ottawa’s bottom six forwards a better unit than they are on paper at the moment. That may take some patience before they truly know what they have in their bottom six, but Dorion can’t wait until the next trade deadline to acquire more skill. By that point, they may have dug themselves another hole they can’t climb out of by playoff time.
New Senators team ownership wants positive results right away, and if they don’t deliver, we could be looking at more dramatic changes in the summer of 2024.
However, so long as they stay healthy, the Sens have a clear need for quality depth performers, and they could go a long way toward filling that need with any trade involving DeBrincat.
They can’t afford any mistakes if they’re going to finish ahead of fellow ascendant Atlantic Division teams, including the Buffalo Sabres and Detroit Red Wings, and lock up a post-season berth by leapfrogging other playoff contenders.
Bottom Line for Ottawa This Off-Season
There were times last season when the Senators looked dangerous, but they went 7-9-4 in the final quarter of the regular season and struggled with consistency all year long. Offense-minded studs, including Tim Stutzle, Brady Tkachuk, Josh Norris and Drake Batherson, aren’t close to their peak yet, and defensemen Chychrun, Thomas Chabot and Jake Sanderson are going to be better this year than they were last season.
Sens fans aren’t being blindly devotional in their expectations for 2023-24, but they understand the way the cookie crumbles this coming year will dictate the direction of the organization for some time to come.
Right out of the gate, the Sens must demonstrate they’re worthy of the hype, keep the pressure on the rest of the Atlantic through every month of the season, and hope it’s enough to end their playoff futility. If it’s not, change won’t be coming only to management.