Adam Proteau provides his in-depth predictions of each second-round series in the 2023 NHL playoffs.
Adam Proteau provides his in-depth predictions of each second-round series in the 2023 NHL playoffs.
The first round of the 2023 Stanley Cup playoffs is complete, and there were no shortage of upsets.
This writer went 2-for-4 with his Eastern Conference predictions and 1-for-4 with his Western Conference picks. Not ideal, but we weren’t the only ones who didn’t see massive upsets from the Florida Panthers and Seattle Kraken, so we’ll take it.
Now it’s time for our predictions for Round 2. There could be more upsets in store, but for the most part, we like the favorites in the four upcoming series. We’ve re-seeded the remaining teams in order of post-season conference rankings.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS (1) vs. EDMONTON OILERS (3)
Why the Golden Knights could win: Vegas meticulously went about their business in Round 1, falling behind Winnipeg 1-0 in the series before they stormed back, won the next four games, and eliminated the Jets rather handily.
The Golden Knights outscored Winnipeg 18-9 in those four wins, and they carved up star Jets goalie Connor Hellebuyck fully and completely. Vegas’ offense will now be taking on a goalie in Stuart Skinner who doesn’t have Hellebuyck’s pedigree. Although Edmonton’s potent play with the puck will test the Golden Knights in a way Winnipeg did not, Vegas is a well-coached group that has a few star forwards of their own (Mark Stone, Jack Eichel).
The Golden Knights relied on starting goalie Laurent Brossoit in Round 1, and he responded with solid numbers, including a 2.42 goals-against average and a .915 save percentage. He’s going to be tested by Oilers superstars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, as well as Edmonton’s supporting cast of scorers, but Vegas has well-balanced point-producers – each of their top-three forward lines generated at least 10 points in five games, and the Golden Knights are going to be a much tougher test than the Los Angeles Kings turned out to be.
Why the Oilers could win: To no one’s surprise, Edmonton beat the Kings thanks in large part to Draisaitl and McDavid’s prowess with the puck. The two stars amassed 10 goals and 21 points combined, and the duo promises to be prominent yet again against Vegas.
The Oilers went 3-0-1 against Vegas in the regular season, but the Golden Knights did not have their full lineup in good health for many of those games. They need players other than McDavid and Draisaitl to step up now and challenge Vegas’ heavy forecheck.
Blueliner Evan Bouchard posted eight assists and 10 points against the Kings while averaging 23:08 of ice time. Oilers coach Jay Woodcroft relied heavily on his top four defensemen in Round 1, and they need to get some more help from their final ‘D’ pairing to counter Vegas’ attack.
If Skinner – or backup Jack Campbell – can give Edmonton decent netminding, they’ll do well against the Golden Knights. But, as Winnipeg discovered, that’s easier said than done against Vegas.
Who is going to win: Vegas
The Golden Knights are no longer the sexy pick to win a Cup, but that doesn’t mean they’re not capable of doing it. Vegas coach Bruce Cassidy did well in his first year behind the Golden Knights’ bench, and if and when Edmonton makes their push in this series, expect Cassidy to make savvy adjustments.
We believe the Oilers aren’t going to roll over against Vegas, but as we saw in the first round, teams that have powerful contributors on offense can’t always make that translate into playoff wins. It won’t be a quick series, but we do believe the Golden Knights have what it takes to make it to the Western final.
Pick: Golden Knights in six games
DALLAS STARS (2) vs. SEATTLE KRAKEN (4)
Why the Stars could win: As we noted yesterday, we like the Stars to be a big player the rest of the way in this post-season. That wasn’t going to change, whether they faced off against Colorado or Seattle in the second round.
The Stars went 2-0-1 against the Kraken in the regular season, and Dallas impressed many by defeating Minnesota in six games in Round 1. The Stars have a terrific balance of youth and experience, and they have the best goalie of this second-round series in Jake Oettinger.
The Stars are by no means a flawless group, but with veterans such as Joe Pavelski, Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn and Ryan Suter providing support to young stars Miro Heiskanen, Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson, Dallas can beat you any way you want to play the game.
Seattle faced a similarly well-balanced team in Colorado in Round 1, but the Stars’ depth and health were much better than the Avalanche’s proved to be. At this point, we have no problem stating we see the Stars winning the West, but they’re going to need their best effort to live up to their status as a series favorite here.
Why the Kraken could win: Nobody outside of Seattle, yours truly included, gave the Kraken a chance to win against Colorado. Thanks to their roster of not-quite-star veteran forwards and a patchwork defense corps, they outlasted the Avs and gave Seattle fans even more to be happy about in this breakout season.
Kraken goalie Philipp Grubauer was sharp against his former Avs teammates (putting up a .926 SP and a 2.44 GAA), and if Seattle has any hope of beating the Stars, they’ll need Grubauer to keep them in games.
The Kraken are playing pressure-free at the moment, as nobody thought at the beginning of the regular season they’d be a playoff team, and nobody thought them capable of eliminating the defending Cup-champion Avalanche. They’re rightfully the underdogs against Dallas, but that may work in their favor.
Who is going to win: Dallas
The Stars have been built to win now, and though they’ve had short stretches of subpar play this season, they found ways to win more often than not. With Benn, Seguin, Heiskanen and Suter, they employ players with high panic thresholds, and Oettinger can steal wins all on his own.
After the first round ended, nobody should proclaim teams are ready to sweep a series, but Dallas has the capability of getting on a roll early and being very tough to knock off once they do have momentum. The run was nice while it lasted for Seattle, but it’s this writer’s belief that the run ends here.
Pick: Stars in five games
EASTERN CONFERENCE
CAROLINA HURRICANES (1) vs. NEW JERSEY DEVILS (2)
Why the Hurricanes could win: The Hurricanes didn’t wipe the floor with the New York Islanders in Round 1, but the Canes did handle their business effectively and enter the second round with momentum on their side.
They went 2-2-0 against the Devils in the regular season, but three of those four games came well before the NHL trade deadline, and New Jersey showed against the New York Rangers why they’re one of the league’s biggest up-and-coming squads.
This series promises to be a high-speed, high-skill showdown. Carolina has been our Stanley Cup-winning prediction since before the season began, so we think they’re ultimately going to outlast a New Jersey team that went down 2-0 in the series against the Rangers before winning four of the next five games.
Compared to the Devils, the Hurricanes are well-rested. They’re also well-coached by Rod Brind’Amour, and they’re getting solid goaltending from Antti Raanta (.906 SP, 2.59 GAA in five games) and Frederik Andersen (.971 SP, 0.91 GAA in one game). And Carolina’s defense is better and deeper than New Jersey’s.
They’re going to need six or seven games to knock out the Devils, but they’ve got the right mix of youth and veteran know-how to get the job done and make it beyond the second round for the first time since 2018-19.
Why the Devils could win: The Devils were a mess to begin their series against the Rangers, as they were outscored 10-2 in Games 1 and 2 combined. But once they installed rookie netminder Akira Schmid as their starter in Game 3, everything changed for New Jersey. Schmid won four of the five games he played, posting an SP of .957 or better in four of those five and shutting out the Rangers in a 4-0 Game 7 triumph. If Schmid continues to dominate, the Hurricanes are going to be in trouble.
Carolina’s offense has taken a hit this year with the injuries suffered by veterans Andrei Svechnikov, Max Pacioretty and Ondrej Kase, and the Hurricanes will need scoring balance to have a chance at beating New Jersey. But New Jersey’s offense hasn’t been firing on all cylinders in the post-season – only Erik Haula has put up offense at better than a .71 points-per-game clip – and if talents like Timo Meier find their game on offense, the Canes may not have the firepower to answer back.
Who is going to win: Carolina
The Hurricanes have two solid options in net, and you really can’t say the same for the Devils. If the Rangers’ offense had shown any life whatsoever in Game 7, New Jersey would’ve been eliminated.
In all likelihood, both the Hurricanes and Devils are going to shine at different points in the series ahead. The trick will be consistency, and it very well could come down to a seventh and deciding game to figure out who will make the Eastern Conference final.
Pick: Hurricanes in seven games
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS (3) vs. FLORIDA PANTHERS (4)
Why the Maple Leafs could win: The Leafs exorcized the demons of playoffs past by showing a killer instinct against Tampa Bay, and the mark of an imposing veteran team is one where teams can win despite being behind for much of the series.
Toronto was often outplayed by the Lightning, yet they never got too low in defeat, nor did they get too high in victory. Because of it, they are now the favorite to win the second-round series and qualify for their first Eastern Conference final since the 2001-02 campaign.
On paper, the Leafs have better goaltending than Florida. They also have a deeper, more skilled defense corps than the Panthers, and Toronto’s forwards are also a better group than Florida’s. To think they’ve made it this far despite not playing their best hockey is something that should terrify the Panthers. They look like they believe in one another, no matter what the score is, and that’s what you want to see from a team at this time of year.
Why the Panthers could win: The Panthers pulled off one of the biggest upsets of all-time by defeating Boston in seven games. Why? Because they’d been playing must-win hockey since early March just to make it into the post-season.
The Bruins had no comparable sense of urgency to their game, and the Panthers showed more will and grit in the final three games of the series than most teams have shown all season long. They’re not under nearly the same degree of pressure that Toronto will be under, and that competitive relaxation may be just what the doctor ordered against the Leafs.
Florida’s goaltending has been an adventure in the playoffs, with veteran Sergei Bobrovsky winning back the starter’s job from Alex Lyon and doing just enough to give his team a shot at winning. Bobrovsky finished the Bruins series with a less-than-impressive .891 SP and 3.94 GAA, and those numbers aren’t going to cut it against the Leafs’ deep collection of skilled forwards.
But if Bobrovsky can elevate his game, the Panthers may be able to poke enough holes in starter Ilya Samsonov to put the Leafs on their heels and ultimately eliminate Toronto.
Who is going to win: Toronto
A massive sigh of relief in Leafs Land followed Toronto’s series win against Tampa Bay, but don’t kid yourself – Buds GM Kyle Dubas didn’t bend over backward to assemble the Leafs’ best roster in more than two decades simply to win one round and bow out shortly thereafter.
The Buds are as aware as anyone that, with the Bruins being eliminated from the playoffs, their road to the Eastern Conference final and the Cup final is as easy as it can get. This is not to say the road will be easy, but the Leafs clearly have the talent and willpower to compete against anyone now.
We were bang-on in our first-round prediction that Toronto would beat the Lightning in six games, so we’re sticking with that pick for Round 2. If Samsonov keeps them in games, the Leafs have all sorts of firepower to come through in the clutch. It could be a very special season for the Blue and White, and even an upstart team like the Panthers doesn’t have enough all-around talent to beat Toronto when it’s at its best.
Pick: Maple Leafs in six games