NHL Power Rankings: As Canucks Reach No. 1, Which Teams are Contenders or Sellers?

The Vancouver Canucks lead the NHL power rankings, but are they a Stanley Cup contender? Jason Chen answers that question for them and every squad.

Welcome back to the ever-popular NHL power rankings at The Hockey News. Published every Wednesday, all 32 teams will be ranked from best to worst with an emphasis on their weekly performances.

There are now 72 days between Wednesday and the trade deadline, and the action usually starts early. Last season, the trade deadline was March 3, but the first big domino fell on Jan. 30 when the Canucks traded Bo Horvat to the Islanders.

This season’s trade deadline is March 8, and we saw the trade activity pick up even earlier this season, with the Canucks (again) making the first big move and acquiring Nikita Zadorov from the rival Flames.

One thing’s pretty clear: no matter how much the advanced stats suggest the Canucks have been extraordinarily lucky and streaky, they’re at the top of the NHL standings, and it behooves them to try and make a big playoff run. The contract negotiations for Elias Pettersson and Filip Hronek’s next contracts loom, and Conor Garland’s playing too well to be traded away, but they should be adding pieces rather aggressively. (In addition, moves that show Pettersson the Canucks want to win now could also help them re-sign him).

And, now, most notably, the Canucks are your new No. 1. It’s a precipitous climb for a team that never ranked higher than 15th in any of the past two seasons of the NHL power rankings, but who can deny the team at the top of the standings at the holiday break?

The Jets remain in the top five for the second consecutive week along with the Canucks, while the Panthers also claw back in after a five-week absence.

As the calendar flips to 2024 next week, here’s the rundown on the contenders for the remainder of the 2023-24 season.

(All fancy stats are 5-on-5 and courtesy naturalstattrick.com. CF% stands for Corsi-for percentage and xGF% represents expected goals-for percentage.)

1. Vancouver Canucks (23-9-3, +46 goal differential. CF% league rank: 18, xGF% league rank: 20)

They're a contender, and even staunch believers in advanced stats have to accept that this may be true begrudgingly. You can’t be leading the league in points at the holiday break and not be considered one of the best teams in the league. Even with a regression, it’s going to take a tank-worthy freefall to leave the Canucks out of the playoffs.

2. New York Rangers (23-8-1, +19. CF%: 16, xGF%: 18)

Definitely a contender, and they make a strong argument to be the best team in the league. Their 5-on-5 numbers aren’t great, but this is pretty typical of the modern NHL, where the best teams are far from perfect.

3. Winnipeg Jets (20-9-3, +27. CF%: 10, xGF%: 16)

They’re really climbing into contender status, and what a great swap it turned out to be with the Kings. The Jets have beaten strong teams convincingly, including 6-2 against the Avs and 5-1 against the Bruins. With an excellent top line, deep defense and consistently good goaltending, the Jets are tough.

4. Boston Bruins (19-7-6, +15. CF%: 19, xGF%: 15)

Contender, especially if Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman stay in Boston long-term in what could go down as one of the best goalie tandems ever. Very few wingers are franchise players; David Pastrnak is one of them, and they’re also doing this even though Charlie McAvoy has missed a quarter of the season.

5. Florida Panthers (19-12-2, +9. CF%: 2, xGF%: 4)

I’m a believer, and partially because Sergei Bobrovsky looks pretty good. They can overcome down seasons from Matthew Tkachuk and perhaps even Brandon Montour. They can score, defend quite well, and have some playoff experience with one of the most experienced coaches.

6. Los Angeles Kings (19-7-4, +34. CF%: 3, xGF%: 1)

They’re a terrifying playoff opponent with their depth down the middle. There may be some questions regarding defensive depth and goaltending, but you also get the feeling they’ll be addressed sooner or later. Definitely a contender.

7. Dallas Stars (20-8-4, +14. CF%: 8, xGF%: 6)

If Jake Oettinger returns and he’s healthy, the Stars definitely have a chance. They’re deep up front thanks to the Matt Duchene signing and boast an elite blueliner in Miro Heiskanen. They’re a playoff team right now, and on the very fringes of being a contender until Oettinger returns.

8. Colorado Avalanche (21-11-2, +21. CF%: 6, xGF%: 9)

A contender because Nathan MacKinnon wills it. The goaltending is definitely suspect, but the window for the 2022 champs is very much still open. If Gabriel Landeskog can return for the playoffs, that might be the biggest trade-deadline acquisition of the season.

9. Vegas Golden Knights (21-9-5, +26. CF%: 20, xGF%: 8)

They falter sometimes, but the defending champs are as good now as they have been last season. They drop down the power rankings after going 0-3 against the gauntlet of the old Southeast Division teams, but their defensive structure and physical play will make them a force in the playoffs yet again.

10. Toronto Maple Leafs (17-8-6, +10. CF%: 17, xGF%: 22)

Joseph Woll gives them a chance to contend, and Ilya Samsonov decidedly does not. We now enter the tier of teams that could, but probably not should or would. I think they’re just outside the cut from the top tier.

11. Edmonton Oilers (15-15-1, +2. CF%: 4, xGF%: 2)

We’ve seen this story so many times; the Oilers will come close because of Connor McDavid, but their defensive lapses and poor goaltending are going to sink them before the Stanley Cup final. Given their poor start, they’re nothing more than a playoff contender so far, sitting five points back of the wild card.

12. New Jersey Devils (17-13-2, -6. CF%: 5, xGF%: 5)

Not a contender, but certainly a lock for the playoffs. There are too many question marks right now, from coaching to defensive structure to goaltending. They have the talent, but that can only take you so far.

13. Minnesota Wild (15-13-4, -3. CF%: 12, xGF%: 11)

Playoff contender, but a strong one. They’ll just need to get hot at the right time to be more than that; Kirill Kaprizov has to return to his elite form, Joel Eriksson Ek and Marco Rossi form one of the best one-two punches in the league, Brock Faber shares No. 1 status with Jared Spurgeon, and Filip Gustavsson plays like he did last season.

14. Washington Capitals (17-9-5, -9. CF%: 28, xGF%: 24)

They banked enough points to likely make the playoff cutoff, but this team feels like the first-round exit variety. They don’t score much and depend on good goaltending to bail them out sometimes. That means putting a lot of confidence in Darcy Kuemper and Charlie Lindgren; can anyone do that?

15. Nashville Predators (19-15-0, +3. CF%: 21, xGF%: 12)

Surprisingly, a playoff contender. We can debate if this is a good development for the Preds because their key players are all in their 30s. The feeling is the Preds will try to be as competitive as they can be and then maybe go the tank-and-draft route when the Roman Josi era is over. Barring a Juuse Saros hot streak, the Preds may be destined for more early playoff exits.

16. Philadelphia Flyers (18-11-4, +9. CF%: 14, xGF%: 7)

Also, a surprising playoff contender with a chance to be a contender, though how long that’s going to take is anyone’s guess. They are on an upward trajectory with elite talent coming in with Cutter Gauthier and (someday) Matvei Michkov, so while they’re not a contender, they’re on track to be one day.

17. Tampa Bay Lightning (17-13-5, -2. CF%: 13, xGF%: 19)

Contender, but almost simply by pedigree and reputation. This is not the back-to-back champion but an experienced, later-stage team that can rely on both talent and guile to win. The Lightning have been there and done that, and while they’re no longer feared as a first-round favorite, they might be the toughest underdogs.

18. New York Islanders (16-8-9, -4. CF%: 30, xGF%: 21)

Playoff contender by way of the loser point, and they’ve just figured out how to win three games in a row. Inconsistency and blown leads can only hurt them in the playoffs.

19. St. Louis Blues (17-15-1, -11. CF%: 27, xGF%: 30)

They’re competitive with a shot at the playoffs but also likely a first-round exit. The Blues are just ushering in the Drew Bannister era, and a 4-1-0 record is promising, but there’s not enough quality depth in this lineup just yet to think it can upset any of the West’s best teams.

20. Arizona Coyotes (17-14-2, +8. CF%: 26, xGF%: 23)

Playoff contender, but that’s a good thing because no one thought the Coyotes would be in this spot. They’ll be a contender in a few more seasons when Logan Cooley establishes himself as an elite center.

21. Detroit Red Wings (16-14-4, +8. CF%: 29, xGF%: 27)

They’re a playoff contender, as they should be, but it’s been a real struggle. The Wings have to get healthy and figure out what they will do in net. Patrick Kane may push them over the edge, but it'll be for a playoff spot, not the Cup.

22. Calgary Flames (14-15-5, -13. CF%: 11, xGF%: 14)

After trading away Nikita Zadorov, they're sellers and should continue to sell. The Flames are only three points out of a playoff spot, but they recognize a first-round exit will do them no good. They don’t have a young core such as the Blues (Kyrou, Thomas) or Coyotes (Cooley, Keller), who can argue that even a little playoff experience is good for their careers.

23. Pittsburgh Penguins (15-13-4, +3. CF%: 7, xGF%: 10)

Their goaltending has been good lately, but you also wonder sometimes if they’re just stale and their current core needs a major shakeup. As long as Sidney Crosby is captain, the Pens will always be looking to make the playoffs, and they might be the only team that can fit the “if we’re in, at least we have a shot” cliche because of Crosby.

24. Carolina Hurricanes (17-13-4, +1. CF%: 1, xGF%: 3)

Strangely, the Pens aren’t the lowest-ranked playoff contender on this list. But this is a big fall for the Canes, who entered the season as strong Cup contenders. Their goaltending issues seem to have been (mostly) resolved, which provides optimism, but the Hurricanes have not been consistent enough to belong anywhere in the top tier.

25. Buffalo Sabres (14-17-4, -15. CF%: 15, xGF%: 17)

At best, they’re a playoff hopeful, and there are too many question marks with this team. They’re talented, but the defense needs a lot of work, and the goaltending hasn’t been strong enough to bail them out. Consider this a small step back for a team with ultra-high expectations, setting the stage for a bounceback next season.

26. Montreal Canadiens (15-13-5, -17. CF%: 24, xGF%: 28)

There’s no doubt this team’s eyes are set on the future. A playoff berth would be a nice bonus, and that’s all. They’ll be sellers, looking once again to get younger, develop its core and keep doing it until Martin St-Louis molds them into a better team one day.

27. Columbus Blue Jackets (11-18-6, -20. CF%: 25, xGF%: 29)

The Jackets’ record will likely creep closer to .500 after a horrendous stretch, but this team’s nowhere marking the playoffs, which is a shame considering how much money and time they’ve invested in Johnny Gaudreau and the blueline.

28. Seattle Kraken (12-14-9, -17. CF%: 9, xGF%: 13)

The Kraken fashion themselves as playoff contenders, but perhaps they’re motivated by other factors that help them ignore the truth: they’re not a good enough team. The Kraken are still building their fan base, and expectations were high – blame the Knights. Making moves to show they can be competitive feels like it’s more about selling tickets.

29. Ottawa Senators (12-17-0, -3. CF%: 22, xGF%: 26)

The new coaching bump applied to everyone except the Senators, although there’s still time. Barring a big turnaround, this has been a lost season for the Sens. Forget about the playoffs as the East’s worst team, and maybe think about how you’re about to add another talented player into a very stocked pipeline.

30. Anaheim Ducks (12-21-0, -25. CF%: 23, xGF%: 25)

The Leo Carlsson era is just beginning. He’s going to need help, and lots of it, and that will mean ensuring they get a chance at another top-three player this season.

31. San Jose Sharks (9-22-3, -67. CF%: 32, xGF%: 32)

There was no confusion about what the Sharks were going to do this season. Playoffs are a distant memory and a far-off future.

32. Chicago Blackhawks (10-22-1, -43. CF%: 31, xGF%: 31)

The Blackhawks will find ways to haunt Vancouver, either through the on-ice dominance of the Toews-Kane era or the subversion of the fan base by drafting both of the best Vancouver-born prospects in decades.