NHL draft and prospect expert Tony Ferrari answers questions on tiers for the 2024 NHL draft, the Anaheim Ducks' young defensemen, what the Detroit Red Wings lack from their prospects and more.
The start of a new NHL season is the perfect opportunity to answer some questions about what to expect in the upcoming season from 2024 draft prospects, prospects on the NHL bubble and so much more.
I gathered up your questions on Twitter (X?) and did my best to answer them to the best of my ability. Thank you all for the questions, and I look forward to more discussion about the NHL draft, prospects and more throughout the new hockey season.
Logan asks: Who do you have higher, Sam Dickinson or Artyom Levshunov, and why?
I love this question because the hype Artyom Levshunov generated over the summer was interesting. The defender shoots a ton from the point, which generates points at the junior and college level, but he has a number of areas that are concerning. He is a good skater in a straight line but struggles at times skating backward when defending in transition, specifically when he has to change direction to track opposing attackers.
He has a lot to clean up and refine in his game when it comes to offensive and defensive details. The NCAA is a good place for him to develop, and he has had a solid start with the Michigan State Spartans. Levshunov has shown off the raw passing and big shot from the point, but he still lacked the refinement you’d like to see from a top-five pick.
On the flip side, Sam Dickinson took his game to the next level in a number of ways. His defensive game remains solid, using his mobility to track and defer attackers to the outside while using his strength and stick work to dislodge possession. Offensively, he has gained a level of confidence and poise that made him a difference-maker this season in the OHL.
Dickinson’s start to the year has made him the clear-cut defenseman in the 2024 NHL draft at the moment, in my opinion. His ability to be a positive player in all three zones, his intelligence and poise, and the dynamism that's emerged in his game are all big positives. Other defenders, such as Zayne Parekh, Henry Mews, Anton Silayev and Levshunov, still have a chance to finish the year as the top defenseman eligible for this year’s draft.
Jason asks: Macklin Celebrini, Cole Eiserman and Ivan Demidov... if they were in the 2023 class, where would they rank? You are my favorite bald draft analyst, by the way.
Let’s start with my ranking at the end of last season.
1. Connor Bedard
2. Adam Fantilli
3. Leo Carlsson
4. Matvei Michkov
5. Will Smith
6. Oliver Moore
7. Zach Benson
8. Axel Sandin Pellikka
Bedard was in a tier all on his own. A borderline generational talent who will be a star from Day 1. Fantilli was closer to Bedard than most were willing to give him credit for, in my opinion. He was the more complete player, he has the size and speed combo that thrives in the NHL, and the offensive skill was through the roof.
Both of them were a clear cut better than what we are getting in Macklin Celebrini, the likely No. 1 in the 2024 NHL draft, but he slots in right there with Carlsson as a 3A/3B. He has time to show he deserves that third spot all on his own, and a great season with Boston University would go a long way.
This brings us to the next two players on the 2024 list you provided, Ivan Demidov and Cole Eiserman. The young Russian is a dynamic offensive talent who can break a game open when he wants to. Eiserman is a goal-scorer at a level we haven’t seen in recent years. The problem is both have major flaws in their games that prevent them from being in that upper echelon.
Demidov hasn’t had a great start, going pointless in seven games across the KHL (four), VHL (one) and MHL (two). His game hasn’t looked right all season, and now, he is set to miss eight to 10 weeks with a knee injury. His slow start and the uncertain season make him difficult to rate. Based on what we’ve seen in the past, he would slot in around Michkov, maybe just slightly behind. Possibly slightly behind Smith.
Eiserman is the real head-scratcher. What do you do with a player who has the chance to be one of the best goal-scorers we’ve seen in the draft since Auston Matthews? With a game so incomplete, you question whether he will ever be able to take advantage of the truly special ability he has.
Eiserman is a floater for large stretches of time, and he can be a bit of a lackluster distributor. He is the kind of player who puts his head down and looks to shoot at every chance. He needs to diversify his skill set in a major way. He’d probably slot in behind Michkov as well. Smith versus Eiserman is a valid conversation as well.
Just don’t ask me who is ahead between Eiserman and Demidov because I truly can’t answer that at the moment.
Rene asks: Please explain what the Ottawa Senators and Anaheim Ducks were doing with/to Lassi Thomson like I'm seven years old.
Shenanigans!
Honestly, though, this is a weird situation that has layers.
First thing's first, the Senators' cap situation is a bit of a mess at the moment for a few reasons. They were one of a handful of teams that ran a skater short in their opening game due to an injury and cap reasons, and they were unable to roster a full 23 players – running with a 20-man roster. Their cap situation is also a mess because the salary cap has been flat for a few years now. If they were able to roster a full 23, they may have had Thomson on their roster.
The other reason this entire situation happened is that the team that originally claimed Thomson on waivers, the Ducks, had a plethora of young defenders in their own right. Olen Zellweger, Pavel Mintyukov, Jackson LaCombe and Jamie Drysdale were all in camp, with Zellweger being sent down to the minors. It’s safe to say all four of those players are better than Thomson, so he ended up being a bit of a superfluous waiver claim.
So to explain it as if you were a seven-year-old, the Sens had no money or space, so they had to risk sending him down. The Ducks claimed him but also had no space, either. In the NHL, the “no take-backs” rule that children live by does not exist, so the Sens were able to claim him and send him down to the AHL because no other NHL team also claimed him.
At the end of the day, Thomson essentially got a tryout with the Ducks in pre-season but went back to the Sens when the Ducks decided he wasn’t good enough.
Jake asks: How many games do you think Olen Zellweger plays this year for the Ducks?
Sticking with the Ducks, as mentioned, Zellweger was the odd man out at the NHL level for the time being. The highly skilled offensive defender has been one of the most exciting prospects in hockey for the last couple of years. He is undersized, though, which was evident at times in the pre-season. With that said, the skill and offensive prowess were obvious.
The Ducks certainly aren’t in win-now mode, which is great for all young players on the Ducks blueline, Zellweger included. There could be a ton of mixing and matching throughout the season. With that said, I think Zellweger plays most of the year in the AHL. He likely won't get a full-time NHL role by any means, but I could see him getting 10 to 15 games if there is an injury or they just want to get him games late in the season.
Ralph asks: How do you see the tiers in this draft, and how do you feel the quality of those tiers compares to the 2023 draft?
Personally, Celebrini is in a tier of his own at the moment. After that, I feel it’s more wide open than most people think.
Eiserman is an elite goal-scorer, but I need to see him do more outside of being an elite shooter. Demidov is injured but as dynamic as anyone when healthy. Dickinson has asserted himself as a top-flight defender. Silayev is racking up points. Berkly Catton deserves way more love than he is currently getting. Adam Jiricek isn’t receiving the hype some expected despite some solid play in the Czech pro league.
Overall, this draft is far more wide open than 2023. Celebrini is Tier 1, and then I have a group that includes Catton, Demidov, Eiserman, Dickinson and Jiricek behind him. Another group is right on their heels and includes about 18 players, including some hyped names in Konsta Helenius and Michael Brandsegg-Nygard, and some names haven’t been nearly as hyped, like Noel Fransen and Liam Greentree.
This draft doesn’t really compare to 2023. Some names at the top would fit in the third or fourth tier of last year’s draft, but the top end was better last year. We have a long way to go for this year’s draft, so players will likely fall down the board and rise up the rankings.
Frederik asks: Thoughts on Marco Rossi and how he will do this season?
I know the love for Minnesota Wild forward Marco Rossi has died down over the last few years, but I am still a massive fan of the former Ottawa 67's center.
He dealt with an extreme case of COVID-19 that had him fearing for his life. It took him a long time to recover, but when he did, he hit the ground running in the AHL. Rossi has excelled in international competition, being a driving force for Austria whenever given the chance. Simply put, the only place Rossi hasn’t been a difference-maker is the NHL thus far, and this season, he may finally get a legitimate opportunity to do so.
His combination of intelligence and skill are so intriguing, with his size being the biggest perceived issue so far. He is feisty and understands how to use his frame to leverage himself in board battles, getting under opponents and securing the puck more often than not. If he can establish those traits at the NHL level as he has everywhere else, from men's international play to the AHL, he should be a stellar player in the NHL sooner rather than later.
Don asks: What should Detroit look at adding to their prospect pool?
High-end talent. It sounds silly and simplistic, but the Red Wings have opted for safe, projectable talent in the last couple of drafts with Marco Kasper and Nate Danielson, two players who look like solid middle-six center options.
The problem is that both were top 10 picks. They need to swing for the fences. They netted Moritz Seider and Lucas Raymond, two of their most important pillars for the future, when they did swing for high upside.
With the loaded Atlantic, Detroit very well could finish near the bottom of the NHL once again with a pick similar to where they selected in June – ninth overall. If they are around that same spot next summer, they must figure out how to shoot for upside. Take the Zach Benson instead of Nate Danielson. Take the Frank Nazar or Matthew Savoie over Marco Kasper. They need high-end talent.