After strong seasons last year, the Calgary Flames and Florida Panthers may not even make the playoffs. Carol Schram explores the stats behind the falls.
After strong seasons last year, the Calgary Flames and Florida Panthers may not even make the playoffs. Carol Schram explores the stats behind the falls.
One year ago, they won their divisions and had the two best goal differentials in the NHL. After both were firmly booted from the post-season by their fiercest rivals in the second round of the playoffs, they made a historic blockbuster trade with each other last summer, perhaps intertwining their fates.
Now, the Calgary Flames and Florida Panthers fight for their playoff lives. And with the clock ticking toward Friday's NHL trade deadline, neither side has made a move in months.
Will the Florida Panthers or Calgary Flames try to strengthen their rosters with the hope that if they can qualify for the post-season, anything can happen? Or could they become sellers?
Here's a statistical look at where things went sideways for both these clubs this season in this week's NHL Stat Pack.
Panthers Lose Their Swagger
Last season, there was almost no comeback the Panthers couldn't achieve. Florida was 14-6-3 when trailing by one period in the 2021-22 season and 11-16-1 when trailing after two. The only team in the same ballpark over an 82-game season in the last decade was the 2018-19 Tampa Bay Lightning, who were 9-12-0 when behind after 40 minutes.
The Panthers got their Presidents' Trophy-winning 122 points with a staggering plus-94 goal differential. They averaged 4.11 goals per game, scoring 25 times more than the second-place Toronto Maple Leafs, and boasted four 30-goal scorers.
With 115 points, Jonathan Huberdeau had a career year that landed him tied for second in the NHL points race and fifth in Hart Trophy voting. Along the way, he may have unwittingly priced himself out of his market, one year away from being a UFA.
Defensively, the Panthers were just OK, tied for 12th with 2.95 goals against per game. But with the kind of firepower they had, that wasn't a problem until their scoring dried up in the playoffs. Against the Tampa Bay Lightning, they managed just three goals in four games.
Seeing the opportunity to go on a historic run, Panthers GM Bill Zito went all-in at the 2022 trade deadline. He didn't sell the farm to bring in Claude Giroux, who made it clear that Florida was the only destination he'd accept. But Zito also gave up his unprotected first-rounder for rental defenseman Ben Chiarot — a pick that could give the Montreal Canadiens a second crack at the rich 2023 draft lottery if the Panthers fail to qualify for the playoffs.
The good news for Habs fans is there's a 70.9-percent chance the Panthers will miss the post-season, according to moneypuck.com.
The Panthers are caught in the Eastern Conference gauntlet, fighting it out with six other teams for one of two wild-card spots. Their goal differential as of Tuesday is minus-3.
They're still ranked a solid eighth offensively. They could finish with three 30-goal scorers in Matthew Tkachuk, Carter Verhaeghe and Sam Reinhart, and they just welcomed Anthony Duclair back to the lineup after a long recovery from a torn Achilles tendon. But the Panthers are still down by seven-tenths of a goal per game from last season to 3.41.
Florida's defense now ranks 23rd in the league, giving up 3.48 goals per game. And their comeback confidence has evaporated. Florida is 3-16-1 this season when trailing after one period and 1-21-1 when behind after two.
There's only one team in the NHL that doesn't have a single third-period comeback this year: the Calgary Flames.
Flames Snuffed
It's hard not to think in hypotheticals when looking at the Flames' season. Maybe things would have been different if Johnny Gaudreau hadn't opted for a change of scenery. If he'd stayed, would Matthew Tkachuk have stuck around? And what the heck has happened with Jacob Markstrom?
At their foundation, the Flames are still a solid, structured team. According to Natural Stat Trick, they're the top team in the Western Conference in expected goals share at 5-on-5, ranked third in the league at 54.94 percent. Edmonton is the second-place Western team, sitting seventh overall at 53.27 percent.
And for what it's worth, Florida also fares well in this metric, ranked sixth overall at 53.30 percent.
Last season, the Flames sat just behind the Panthers with the second-best goal differential in the league, at plus-85. Their foundation was their rock-solid defense, which gave up just 2.51 goals per game and was 83.2 percent successful on the penalty kill.
This year, they're giving up an extra half-a-goal per game or so – 3.07, to be precise. Markstrom's save percentage has dipped from .922 last season, when he was runner-up for the Vezina Trophy, to .888 this year. Backup Dan Vladar has also seen a small drop-off, from .906 to .898.
Originally drafted in 2008, Markstrom took a long road to becoming an elite NHL goaltender. It's startling to realize that he turned 33 in January.
On the offensive side of the puck, the Flames benefitted last year from two 100-plus point players, Gaudreau and Tkachuk, and Elias Lindholm at a point per game.
This season, Tyler Toffoli is leading the way with 25 goals and 52 points in 60 games. Huberdeau and Nazem Kadri were big off-season additions, but at 39 and 44 points, respectively, the two of them together may not add up to what Gaudreau or Tkachuk each brought individually last year.
As a result, the Flames have lost four-tenths of a goal per game this season, down from 3.55 to 3.15. Over 60 games played, that's 24 goals gone and 33.6 more goals allowed already. That puts Calgary at a goal differential of plus-three at this point in the season.
One other interesting note: last season, the Flames were the healthiest team in the league by a significant margin, with only 92 games lost to injury per mangameslost.com.
It would be easy to assume health concerns may be part of the reason for Calgary's slide this season, but that does not appear to be the case. Through Feb. 24, they still had just 82 man games lost. That makes them the third-healthiest team in the league this season, behind the New York Rangers (29) and the Dallas Stars (74).
The good news for Calgary? This year's playoff race in the West is not nearly as hard-fought as in the East.
The Flames head into Tuesday's matchup against Boston just four points out of the second wild-card spot. Even though they're just 3-4-3 in their last 10 games, they've actually made up a bit of ground on the teams that currently occupy those wild-card positions. The Winnipeg Jets are 4-6-0 in their last 10 games, and the Seattle Kraken are 3-6-1.
Calgary still has a 69.4 percent chance of snagging a playoff berth, according to moneypuck.com.
The Flames were relatively quiet at the 2022 trade deadline, only acquiring forwards Calle Jarnkrok and Ryan Carpenter. And while it's believed he's always abreast of the action around the league, GM Brad Treliving hasn't made a trade since the blockbuster five-player deal that brought Huberdeau to Calgary last July.
Will that change by Friday?