NHL Stat Pack: Power-Play Scoring Throws Back to the ’80s

Power-play efficiency is almost as high as it was in the early 1980s. And McDavid’s scoring power-play points at nearly historic levels. Carol Schram explains.

One of the dominant storylines in the 2022-23 NHL season is the continuing trend of increased scoring. 

Since the valley of the 2015-16 season, when teams each scored just 2.71 goals per game and Jamie Benn finished second in the Art Ross race with 89 points, we've seen the average climb. We're now at 3.16 goals per team per game this season, according to Hockey Reference. That's up from 3.14 last season, and it's the highest overall scoring rate since 1993-94.

But look a little closer. Power-play scoring has increased so much this season that it has disguised a substantial dip in even-strength production.

Here's how scoring broke down in the 2021-22 season:

And here's how the scoring rates look this season — using data through Dec. 31, 2022, then pro-rating through a full 82-game regular season to make the numbers easier to compare at a glance:

There are two big takeaways here. 

Based on current scoring rates, the overall scoring will be up by about 80 goals this year. It's a relatively small number, but still an increase.

But more importantly, power-play scoring is tracking to increase by 355 goals. Shorthanded goals are also up slightly, while empty-net and penalty-shot goals are pretty steady. All told, we're losing about 300 even-strength goals from last season. 

In past years, we've seen power-play opportunities jump when the NHL issues directives to crack down on certain behaviors. The most memorable example was the hard line on obstruction fouls coming out of the 2004-05 lockout. That season, power-play opportunities jumped from 4.24 up to 5.85 per team per game, and scoring climbed by more than half a goal per team per game.

This year, there hasn't appeared to be any such directive. But for some reason, power-play chances are way up. For the last two seasons, each team was getting 2.89 power plays per game. This year, the number has risen to 3.26, the highest rate since 2013-14.

Power-play efficiency also continues to trend upward. But that has been happening pretty steadily for 25 years, from a low of 15.08 percent in 1997-98. 

Still, after hovering around the 20 percent mark for the last five seasons, this year's power-play success rate has jumped to 22.42 percent. It's the fifth-highest conversion rate since this data was first recorded in 1963-64. The other four years were all between 1978 and 1983 — think stand-up goalies and Gretzky setting up teammates from his office behind the net. And they're not much higher: the all-time record is 22.94 percent in 1982-83.

Not quite. But his individual numbers do deserve a mention.

The Edmonton Oilers, of course, have the best power play in the NHL this season. They're clicking at 32.1 percent, nearly 10 percentage points above the league average, and they have a league-leading 44 power-play goals through Dec. 31.

McDavid has been a part of an incredible 84 percent of those goals, with 37 power-play points in 38 games. The second and third names on the power-play points list are Oilers as well: Leon Draisaitl at 27 and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins at 24. 

Much like the old adage about Alex Ovechkin firing one-timers from the left circle, teams know what they're facing when they take a penalty against Edmonton but still can't contain them.

Let's go back to those 37 points in 38 games. 

Last month, I marvelled at the proliferation of point-per-game players in the NHL this season. 

McDavid is currently this close to averaging a point per game on the power play alone. 

To put that level of production into perspective, the all-time record for power-play points in a season belongs to Mario Lemieux. In 77 games in the 1987-88 season, Lemieux scored 80 of his 168 points with the man advantage.

McDavid's current pace projects to 79.8 points over a full 82 games. He has a real crack at matching or beating that record.

And while power-play scoring, league-wide, is up from last year, McDavid's personal improvement significantly exceeds that. He had 44 power-play points last season, so he has gone from 0.55 power-play points per game to, fittingly, 0.97. That's an increase of 77 percent.

Overall, McDavid is on pace to jump from 123 points last year to 160 this year — the highest total since Lemieux's 161-point campaign, in 70 games, in 1995-96. Most of that jump does come from his increased power-play production, but unlike the rest of the league, he has also maintained his even-strength points rate, even improving it slightly.

It seems to be a fortuitous coincidence that teams are doing more with their power-play chances at the same moment that they happen to be getting more opportunities than they've had in years. Perhaps practice makes perfect — but one would think the hapless penalty-killers would start to figure things out after all those reps, too.

With a league-wide kill rate of just 77.58 percent, congratulations are in order to the teams that are bucking the trend. Through. Dec. 31, just four teams had kill rates above 83 percent, led by the Boston Bruins at 84.7 percent.

The dip in overall even-strength scoring is an interesting twist. It'll be fascinating to see if teams can raise their games at 5-on-5 in the second half of the season, or if they'll continue to focus on cashing in when they get the man advantage.